**Valfrid keeps track of the week's safe bets 12/10**

The article presents five football matches where the odds-setter recommends favorite bets based on statistical measures such as expected goals (xG), press intensity and ball possession rather than gut feeling. Among the matches, Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka, Cardiff vs Watford and Rot-Weiss Essen vs Fortuna Köln are highlighted as cases where the numbers clearly speak in favor of the home teams.