Austrian Bundesliga25°8 km/h

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    LASKLASK
    4–1
    RiedRied
    The model's lean: 1 · LASK (63%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.71 (+8 %)

    LASK – Ried · Austrian Bundesliga

    1 · LASK 63%X 23%14% Ried · 2
    Final score
    4 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: LASK 63% · Draw 23% · Ried 14%

    Match prediction: LASK – Ried

    Predicted score matrix

    Ried →
    LASK →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.0%
    0–15.1%
    0–22.5%
    0–30.8%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–010.6%
    1–110.6%
    1–24.9%
    1–31.5%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.5%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–06.7%
    3–16.4%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–05.0%
    4+–14.8%
    4+–22.2%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-011%
    2. 2.1-111%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    1,92–0,95
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,545%
    –
    Over 2,555%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • LASK to win63%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.03

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • LASK to win63%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.58

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%

    Combined probability

    42%

    Fair odds

    2.38

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw23% probability@4.71PinnacleEV+8%
    Bookmaker1 · LASKX2 · Ried
    Betfair Exchange1.131.111.12
    Pinnacle1.47
    EV+ 8%
    4.71    		6.61

    Odds updated 14 Aug, 10:09

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a LASK win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 1.58 to 1.47 (−7%).

    1-7 %
    67 %57 %

    1.58 → 1.47

    X+13 %
    26 %16 %

    4.17 → 4.71

    2+24 %
    21 %11 %

    5.32 → 6.61

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 14/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins LASK vs Ried according to our model?

    The model gives LASK a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: LASK 63%, draw 23%, Ried 14%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.