01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Austria Lustenau or draw (1X)76%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Austrian Bundesliga22°21,5 mm24 km/h
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Austria LustenauLow block & direct0–4
WSG TirolCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Austria Lustenau (43%)
Austria Lustenau vs WSG Tirol · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Austria Lustenau 43%X 31%25% WSG Tirol · 2
43%
31%
25%
Analysis: Austria Lustenau – WSG Tirol
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Current form and expected goals serve as our primary guides for this matchup. The hosts have the statistical edge, both in terms of points and expected points, suggesting a more coherent tactical approach. Lustenau's defensive fragility is counterbalanced by WSG Tirol's even leakier backline, indicating a match where defensive mishaps could be decisive.
Lustenau's low defensive line and direct playstyle will likely aim to exploit Tirol's vulnerabilities, especially given the visitors' tendency to rely on counterattacks and crosses. The latter can be potent but also leaves them vulnerable to swift transitions, which Lustenau is well-equipped to capitalize on. With expected goals sitting at 1.40 for Lustenau and 0.92 for Tirol, the hosts seem more likely to find the net.
Given the forecast of rain, goal-scoring might face additional challenges, further supported by the model's inclination towards a low-scoring affair. The expected 41% probability for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score suggests a cautious offensive outlook. Scorelines such as 1-0 or 1-1 dominate the predictions, reflecting the low-risk strategies both teams might adopt.
The model points to Austria Lustenau as favorites with a 43% win probability, and given that the most likely outcomes center around a narrow win or a draw, the smart money seems to be on a tight contest.
Austria LustenauForm DDLWD
League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #7xP/match #7Points #5
Key players
- Antonio VerinacFxG 0.46 · xT 0.15
- Albin GashiLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.08
- Danilo Teodoro SoaresLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
WSG TirolForm DLDLL
League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #12xP/match #9Points #12
Key players
- Marco BorasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.15
- Husein BalićRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.05
- Nikolai Baden FrederiksenCAMxG 0.28 · xT 0.00
Final score
0 – 4
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Austria Lustenau 43% · Draw 31% · WSG Tirol 25%
Match prediction: Austria Lustenau – WSG Tirol
Predicted score matrix
WSG Tirol →
Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.2%
0–18.6%
0–24.1%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–013.4%
1–113.0%
1–25.8%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.7%
2–18.9%
2–24.1%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.5%
3–14.2%
3–21.9%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.2%
4+–12.0%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.1-113%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.2-010%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,40–0,92
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
320%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,559%
@2.22EV+31%
Over 2,541%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Austria Lustenau or draw (1X)76%
- Under 2.5 goals59%
- Leo Mikic to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Leo Mikic to score28%
- Yannick Vötter to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Austria Lustenau43% probability@3.10Bet365EV+35%reference odds
- Under 2.559% probability@2.22PinnacleEV+31%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.77PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Austria Lustenau | X | 2 · WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 35% 3.10 | EV+ 7% 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | EV+ 18% 3.77 | 3.64 |
Odds updated 28 Aug, 10:29
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Austria Lustenau win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 2.40 to 2.01 (−16%).
1-16 %
49 %39 %
2.40 → 2.01
X+4 %
31 %21 %
3.61 → 3.77
2+31 %
35 %25 %
2.78 → 3.64
Over 2,5+1 %
61 %51 %
1.68 → 1.70
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Austria Lustenau
WSG Tirol
Austria Lustenau (5–5)
WSG Tirol (2–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Austria Lustenau
WSG Tirol
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Austria Lustenau
WSG Tirol
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Austria Lustenau | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 1 |
| xPoints | 5.4 | 3.7 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.64 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.48 |
| Playing style | Austria Lustenau | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 0.82 | 0.58 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 216 | 286 |
| Passes against per match | 376 | 426 |
| Switches of play per match | 18 | 15.5 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Austria Lustenau | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 2.7 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.75 |
| Other | Austria Lustenau | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Domenik Schierl (Austria Lustenau) | Salko Hamzic (WSG Tirol) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 17 |
| Save % | 75% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Austria Lustenau vs WSG Tirol according to our model?
The model gives Austria Lustenau a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Austria Lustenau 43%, draw 31%, WSG Tirol 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.