01 · 2 legs
Safe
- LASK to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Austrian Bundesliga18°7 km/h
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Sturm GrazPossession & high pressvs
LASKPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · LASK (49%)
Sturm Graz vs LASK · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Sturm Graz 27%X 25%49% LASK · 2
27%
25%
49%
Analysis: Sturm Graz – LASK
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A fascinating collision of form and history awaits as Sturm Graz host LASK in a matchup that could redefine the momentum in the Austrian Bundesliga. The visitors arrive with a staggering streak of nine consecutive victories, a testament to their current dominance. While both teams favor a high-press, possession-based approach, it is LASK's prolific xG of 2.7 per match that hints at their potential to outscore the hosts, who manage 1.4 xG on average.
Despite a solid head-to-head record against LASK, with three wins in their last six encounters, Graz finds themselves on the back foot. The historical data shows only a slight advantage, which may not hold much weight against their opponents' red-hot form. LASK also have the upper hand in xPoints, leading 12.1 to Graz's 7.0, suggesting their recent performances are no fluke.
The likelihood of both teams finding the net stands at 54%, with expected goals of 1.11 for Graz and 1.60 for LASK. This suggests a closely contested affair, leaning towards a 1-2 victory for the visitors. A 51% chance of over 2.5 goals further supports the notion of a competitive match, although history notes the fixture averages 3.2 goals per meeting.
For astute bettors, the most intriguing angle lies in the under 0.5 goals market. Offered at 17.0 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, it carries a substantial 19% value edge. While the probability remains low at 7%, the potential payoff is significant, showcasing a rare opportunity for those willing to consider an unlikely stalemate in an otherwise goal-friendly matchup.
Sturm GrazForm DWWDL
League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #4xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Jon Gorenc StankovicCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
- Emran SogloLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.27
- Albert VallciCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
LASKForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Moses UsorFxG 0.86 · xT 0.17
- George BelloLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.15
- Christoph LangLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Sturm Graz – LASK
Predicted score matrix
LASK →
Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–110.3%
0–28.5%
0–34.5%
0–4+2.6%
1
1–07.0%
1–112.2%
1–29.4%
1–35.0%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.1%
2–16.6%
2–25.3%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.4%
3–21.9%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,11–1,60
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.42EV+8%
Over 2,551%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- LASK to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Robert Ljubičić to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Robert Ljubičić to score22%
- Andrés Alberto Andrade Cedeño to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · LASK49% probability@2.50Bet365EV+22%reference odds
- Under 1.524% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- Under 1.524% probability@4.90BetssonEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sturm Graz | X | 2 · LASK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.50 | EV+ 22% 2.50 |
| Betsafe | 2.95 | 3.60 | EV+ 5% 2.15 |
| Betsson | 2.95 | 3.60 | EV+ 5% 2.15 |
| Nordicbet | 2.95 | 3.60 | EV+ 5% 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.87 | 3.87 | EV+ 8% 2.23 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 18:38
Odds movement
1-8 %
34 %29 %
3.11 → 2.87
X+7 %
28 %23 %
3.62 → 3.87
2+2 %
46 %41 %
2.19 → 2.23
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesSturm Graz 3Draw 2LASK 1
Goals: 11–8 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- SK Sturm Graz dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
- SK Sturm Graz have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
- LASK come into this round on 9 straight wins.
- LASK have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sturm Graz
LASK
Sturm Graz (6–5)
LASK (15–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sturm Graz
LASK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sturm Graz
LASK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sturm Graz | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 15 |
| xPoints | 7 | 12.1 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 0.39 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.57 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Sturm Graz | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.66 | 0.8 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 0.66 | 0.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 4 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 311 | 447 |
| Passes against per match | 249 | 273 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.8 | 51.1 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 56 |
| Set pieces | Sturm Graz | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 8.1 | 8.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 0.81 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.68 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 1 |
| Other | Sturm Graz | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Ammar Helac (Sturm Graz) | Lukas Jungwirth (LASK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 6 |
| Save % | 67% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sturm Graz vs LASK according to our model?
The model gives LASK a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sturm Graz 27%, draw 25%, LASK 49%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.