Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Austrian Bundesliga22 August 202621°15,9 mm10 km/h

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Sturm Graz

Austria Lustenau

The model's lean: 1 · Sturm Graz (69%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.48 (+12 %)

1 · Sturm Graz 69%X 21%10% Austria Lustenau · 2

69%

21%

Match prediction: Sturm Graz – Austria Lustenau

Predicted score matrix

Austria Lustenau →

Sturm Graz →

0–05.9%

0–13.9%

0–21.5%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.9%

1–19.1%

1–23.2%

1–30.8%

1–4+0.2%

2–013.0%

2–19.5%

2–23.5%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.2%

3–16.8%

3–22.5%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–08.1%

4+–15.9%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-012%
3.2-19%
4.3-09%
5.1-19%

Expected goals

2,14–0,73

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.48EV+12%

Over 2,555%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sturm Graz to win69%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Sturm Graz to win69%
Over 2.5 goals55%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals55%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.545% probability@2.48BetsafeEV+12%
Under 2.545% probability@2.48BetssonEV+12%
Under 2.545% probability@2.48NordicbetEV+12%

Bookmaker	1 · Sturm Graz	X	2 · Austria Lustenau
Betsafe	1.34	4.55	8.30
Betsson	1.34	4.55	8.30
Nordicbet	1.34	4.55	8.30

Odds updated 17 Aug, 18:36

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau according to our model?

The model gives Sturm Graz a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sturm Graz 69%, draw 21%, Austria Lustenau 10%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.