Hartberg vs Ried: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Austrian Bundesliga30 August 202622°10 km/h

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HartbergCounter-attacks & crosses

3–2

RiedPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Ried (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.96 (+11 %)

1 · Hartberg 30%X 29%40% Ried · 2

30%

29%

40%

Analysis: Hartberg – Ried

Sofia Andersson · 29 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Ried enters the match against Hartberg as the model's favorite, holding a 40% chance of victory compared to Hartberg's 30%. Despite historical dominance by the hosts, having won all six of their head-to-head encounters, the statistical landscape tips in favor of the visitors. Ried's possession-based style should counter Hartberg's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses, particularly given the latter's poor xG of 0.59 per match against Ried's 1.7.

The expected goals further emphasize this imbalance, with Ried projected at 1.25 compared to Hartberg's 1.17. The head-to-head sample, though perfect for Hartberg, is small enough to be overshadowed by current form and expected goals. With Hartberg conceding an xGA of 2.1 per match against Ried's more resilient 1.3, the visitors are statistically poised to control both the flow and outcome of the game.

Despite a near-even chance of both teams scoring, the likelihood of under 2.5 goals sits at 57%, suggesting a tight, possibly low-scoring affair. The potential for a 1-1 draw stands at 13%, making it the most probable scoreline, though a narrow 0-1 win for Ried is close behind at 11%. The layer of tension lies in whether Hartberg can break their poor xG trend or if Ried can convert possession into decisive goals.

The sharpest angle lies in the under 2.5 market. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering it at odds of 1.82, there is a 3% edge on the model’s assessment. This provides a solid betting avenue, especially given the model's inclination towards a controlled, low-scoring encounter.

Hartberg

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #11xP/match #10Points #11

Key players

Tobias KainzRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
Angelo GattermayerFxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
Fabian WilfingerRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05

Ried

Form LDLLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #6xP/match #5Points #8

Key players

Stefan SchwabCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
Moegamat Yusuf MaartCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Yussef NasraweCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08

Final score

3 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Hartberg 30% · Draw 29% · Ried 40%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - HartbergBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,87fair 14,55-18 %

Hit

Matchresultat - SV RiedBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,64fair 12,67-48 %

Miss

Match prediction: Hartberg – Ried

Predicted score matrix

Ried →

Hartberg →

0–09.3%

0–110.8%

0–27.0%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.0%

1–113.4%

1–28.1%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.1%

2–17.6%

2–24.7%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.4%

3–12.9%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,17–1,25

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.96EV+6%

Over 2,543%

@1.91

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Ried or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Ried or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Kingstone Mutandwa to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Elias Havel to score24%
Nikki Havenaar to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.557% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
1 · Hartberg30% probability@3.64PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@3.73PinnacleEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hartberg	X	2 · Ried
Betsafe	EV+ 8% 3.55	3.40	1.98
Betsson	EV+ 8% 3.55	3.40	1.98
Nordicbet	EV+ 8% 3.55	3.40	1.98
Pinnacle	EV+ 10% 3.64	EV+ 9% 3.73	2.02

Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Ried win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 2.19 to 2.02 (−8%).

1+16 %

35 %25 %

3.13 → 3.64

X+4 %

32 %22 %

3.60 → 3.73

2-8 %

48 %38 %

2.19 → 2.02

Over 2,5-2 %

55 %45 %

1.94 → 1.91

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Hartberg 6Draw 0Ried 0

Goals: 12–1 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

TSV Hartberg dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hartberg

Ried

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hartberg (2–6)

Ried (4–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hartberg

Ried

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hartberg

Ried

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hartberg	Ried
Points	3	4
xPoints	3.3	6.2
xG per match	0.59	1.7
xGA per match	2.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.34

Playing style	Hartberg	Ried
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.28
Field tilt	0.24	0.58
xT per match	0.7	1.1
xTA per match	2.1	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	18	31
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.2
Entries into the box per match	9	12
Entries into the box against	19	12
Pass completion %	0.73	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.67
Passes per match	297	338
Passes against per match	438	340
Switches of play per match	22.8	21.2
Long balls per match	34	31

Set pieces	Hartberg	Ried
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.14
Corners per match	3.9	4.7
Corners against per match	11.1	4.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.5

Other	Hartberg	Ried
Throw-in control	0.74	0.68

The goalkeepers	Ármin Pécsi (Hartberg)	Andreas Leitner (Ried)
Saves	16	10
Save %	73%	59%
xG prevented	66%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hartberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Ried

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hartberg vs Ried according to our model?

The model gives Ried a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hartberg 30%, draw 29%, Ried 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.