01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rapid Wien to win55%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Austrian Bundesliga13°10 km/h
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WolfsbergLow block & directvs
Rapid WienCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Rapid Wien (55%)Best value by the model: 1 · Wolfsberg @ 4.65 (+5 %)
Wolfsberg vs Rapid Wien · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Wolfsberg 23%X 22%55% Rapid Wien · 2
23%
22%
55%
Analysis: Wolfsberg – Rapid Wien
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
A striking 55% probability suggests Rapid Wien has the upper hand as they face Wolfsberg. Despite the hosts' slight head-to-head advantage since 2022, having won three of the last six encounters, the visitors' current form and expected goals heavily favor them. Rapid Wien's attacking prowess is clear, with an impressive average of 2.6 xG per match, nearly three times that of Wolfsberg's 0.89. Defensively, the visitors also show superiority, allowing just 1.2 xGA compared to Wolfsberg's 1.9.
The match leans toward a 1-1 or 1-2 outcome, with both teams expected to score in over half of the scenarios. Although Wolfsberg's direct playstyle might create sporadic openings, Rapid Wien's strength in counter-attacks and crossing seems poised to capitalize efficiently. With the over/under at 57% for over 2.5 goals, the model inclines toward a match with multiple goals, aligning with the historical average of 3.0 goals per meeting.
For bettors looking for value, the odds offered on Wolfsberg's victory at 4.65 by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a 5% edge according to the model's assessment. While Rapid Wien's form makes them the more likely victors, that value angle could attract those willing to weigh potential risk against reward.
WolfsbergForm WDLDL
League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #12xP/match #9Points #7
Key players
- Giacomo VrioniFxG 0.50 · xT 0.04
- Nicolas WimmerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
- Donis AvdijajFxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
Rapid WienForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #2xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- Ercan KaraFxG 0.78 · xT -0.09
- Yusuf DemirRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.34
- Jannes-Kilian HornLWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.23
Match prediction: Wolfsberg – Rapid Wien
Predicted score matrix
Rapid Wien →
Wolfsberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–19.1%
0–28.7%
0–35.3%
0–4+3.7%
1
1–05.5%
1–111.0%
1–29.8%
1–36.0%
1–4+4.2%
2
2–03.3%
2–16.0%
2–25.5%
2–33.4%
2–4+2.4%
3
3–01.2%
3–12.3%
3–22.1%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.1-36%
Expected goals
1,13–1,84
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.32
Over 2,557%
@1.67
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rapid Wien to win55%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Matthias Seidl to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Matthias Seidl to score25%
- Raffael Behounek to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Wolfsberg23% probability@4.65BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Wolfsberg23% probability@4.65BetssonEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Wolfsberg23% probability@4.65NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Wolfsberg | X | 2 · Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 2% 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 4.65 | 3.60 | 1.70 |
| Betsson | EV+ 5% 4.65 | 3.60 | 1.70 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 4.65 | 3.60 | 1.70 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 4.50 | 4.35 | 1.68 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 20:37
Odds movement
1+3 %
24 %19 %
4.36 → 4.50
X+1 %
24 %19 %
4.29 → 4.35
20 %
59 %54 %
1.68 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesWolfsberg 3Draw 1Rapid Wien 2
Goals: 11–7 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Wolfsberg
Rapid Wien
Wolfsberg (6–6)
Rapid Wien (15–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Wolfsberg
Rapid Wien
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Wolfsberg
Rapid Wien
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Wolfsberg | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 12 |
| xPoints | 5.5 | 9.2 |
| xG per match | 0.89 | 2.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.92 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.4 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Wolfsberg | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.28 | 0.65 |
| xT per match | 0.55 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 0.86 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.84 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.61 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 230 | 508 |
| Passes against per match | 391 | 360 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.7 | 27.4 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Wolfsberg | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 8.3 | 3 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.28 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.6 |
| Other | Wolfsberg | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukas Gütlbauer (Wolfsberg) | Niklas Hedl (Rapid Wien) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 20 |
| Save % | 72% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Wolfsberg vs Rapid Wien according to our model?
The model gives Rapid Wien a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wolfsberg 23%, draw 22%, Rapid Wien 55%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.