Cercle Brugge vs Lommel: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League29 August 2026Jan Breydel Stadion, Brugge18°2,6 mm28 km/h

Läs på svenska

Cercle BruggePossession control

0–1

LommelLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Cercle Brugge (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lommel @ 5.64 (+54 %)

1 · Cercle Brugge 47%X 25%27% Lommel · 2

47%

25%

27%

Analysis: Cercle Brugge – Lommel

Erik Lindberg · 27 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Cercle Brugge holds a 47% chance of victory against Lommel, with the home side showing slightly better expected points and xG metrics. Their possession-based approach contrasts sharply with Lommel's low defense strategy, setting up an intriguing tactical clash. The model hints at a narrow home win, with 1-1 emerging as the single most likely scoreline. Yet, with only two points to their name, the hosts are under pressure to translate potential into points.

The weather forecasts rain, which could dampen scoring but is already accounted for in the probabilities. Despite Lommel's solid start with four points, their xG and xGA tell a story of overperformance, hinting at potential regression. This underlines the hosts' edge in offensive prowess, generating a higher xG per match. Still, both teams have vulnerabilities, as evidenced by their defensive numbers.

With a 1-1 draw as the most probable result, there's a compelling value angle on Lommel winning at odds of 5.75 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet—well above the model's 27% win probability for the visitors. This 57% edge might tempt those searching for an underdog upset, though the safer play leans towards a cautious home win with over 2.5 goals likely.

Cercle Brugge

Form LLDDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #13xT #10xP/match #9Points #13

Key players

Steve NgouraFxG 0.66 · xT 0.26
Gary Jean MagnéeRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.20
Emmanuel KakouCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.03

Lommel

Form DLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #17xP/match #10Points #8

Key players

Tom ReynersFxG 0.17 · xT 0.21
Lucas SchoofsCMxG 0.17 · xT -0.02
Jason van DuivenCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.22

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Cercle Brugge 47% · Draw 25% · Lommel 27%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - LommelBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,66fair 12,80+7 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Cercle BruggeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,04fair 5,96-32 %

Miss

Match prediction: Cercle Brugge – Lommel

Predicted score matrix

Lommel →

Cercle Brugge →

0–05.1%

0–15.6%

0–23.6%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.6%

1–08.3%

1–111.0%

1–26.6%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.8%

2–19.6%

2–25.9%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–04.7%

3–15.8%

3–23.6%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.6%

4+–03.2%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,81–1,23

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.47EV+2%

Over 2,559%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Cercle Brugge to win47%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Cercle Brugge to win47%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Steve Ngoura to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Steve Ngoura to score33%
Hannes Van der Bruggen to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lommel27% probability@5.64PinnacleEV+54%reference odds
2 · Lommel27% probability@5.30BetsafeEV+45%reference odds
2 · Lommel27% probability@5.30BetssonEV+45%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cercle Brugge	X	2 · Lommel
Betsafe	1.58	EV+ 4% 4.10	EV+ 45% 5.30
Betsson	1.58	EV+ 4% 4.10	EV+ 45% 5.30
Nordicbet	1.58	EV+ 4% 4.10	EV+ 45% 5.30
Pinnacle	1.55	EV+ 16% 4.60	EV+ 54% 5.64

Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

Odds movement

1+3 %

65 %60 %

1.50 → 1.55

X-1 %

23 %18 %

4.67 → 4.60

2+1 %

20 %15 %

5.60 → 5.64

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cercle Brugge

Lommel

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cercle Brugge (5–6)

Lommel (5–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cercle Brugge

Lommel

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cercle Brugge

Lommel

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cercle Brugge	Lommel
Points	2	4
xPoints	4.5	4.2
xG per match	1.9	1.2
xGA per match	1.9	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.41	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.45	0.15

Playing style	Cercle Brugge	Lommel
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.37	0.29
xT per match	1	0.61
xTA per match	1.5	1.8
Won balls, offensive half	23	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.18
Entries into the box per match	11	8
Entries into the box against	16	20
Pass completion %	0.72	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.75
Passes per match	279	329
Passes against per match	474	507
Switches of play per match	14.2	23.5
Long balls per match	23	32

Set pieces	Cercle Brugge	Lommel
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.08
Corners per match	8.3	3
Corners against per match	6.3	7.3
xG per corner	0.07	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.37	0.64

Other	Cercle Brugge	Lommel
Throw-in control	0.63	0.68

The goalkeepers	Gaëtan Coucke (Cercle Brugge)	Matthias Pieklak (Lommel)
Saves	8	10
Save %	57%	83%
xG prevented	31%	90%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cercle Brugge

Fixtures, form & tips

Lommel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cercle Brugge vs Lommel according to our model?

The model gives Cercle Brugge a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cercle Brugge 47%, draw 25%, Lommel 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.