01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sint-Truiden or draw (X2)66%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Belgian Pro LeagueJan Breydel Stadion, Brugge27°12 km/h
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Cercle BruggeCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Sint-TruidenPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Sint-Truiden (41%)
Cercle Brugge – Sint-Truiden · Belgian Pro League
1 · Cercle Brugge 31%X 28%41% Sint-Truiden · 2
31%
28%
41%
Analysis: Cercle Brugge – Sint-Truiden
Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work
Sint-Truidense VV's 71 points this season tell a story of dominance, yet they're not walking into a straightforward fixture against Cercle Brugge KSV. With Cercle Brugge on a run of scoring in nine consecutive league matches, the home side won't be easily subdued. However, Sint-Truidense's possession-based approach could exploit Cercle Brugge’s defensive frailties, given their xGA of 1.6 – higher than Sint-Truidense’s 1.3.
Cercle Brugge KSV have the slighter edge in expected goals per match, 1.8 to Sint-Truidense VV’s 1.6, suggesting they might have more bite in attack. Yet the head-to-head results since 2023 show a balanced affair, with Cercle Brugge winning three of the eight matches, making this a small sample that shouldn't overshadow the current form. Weather doesn’t play a factor here, so expect the playing styles to fully dictate proceedings.
Sint-Truidense VV's model probability of 41% to take the win aligns with an attractive value bet. Particularly, odds of 3.01 at Pinnacle provide a juicy 24% edge for those inclined to back the visitors. It's a game where the numbers hint at a possible 1-2 scoreline leaning towards the away side, given the slight edge in xPoints and an underlying solidity in defense.
With a forecasted 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score, the game leans towards action rather than a cagey affair. Consider the over 2.5 goals market if you're hunting for a thrill, as both sides have the attacking metrics to breach each other's back lines.
The sharpest angle here rests with Sint-Truidense VV as an away win at those enticing odds on Pinnacle. Their style could control the tempo against Cercle Brugge’s counter-attacking proclivities, leading to a likely 1-2 outcome in favour of the visitors.
Cercle BruggeForm WWWLL
League ranking xG #2xGA #13xT #3xP/match #2Points #13
Key players
- Oumar DiakitéRWxG 0.40 · xT 0.01
- Flávio Basilua Jacinto NazinhoLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.26
- Gary Jean MagnéeRWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.26
Sint-TruidenForm WLDLW
League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #5xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- Ryotaro ItoCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.14
- Robert-Jan VanwesemaelRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.18
- Keisuke GotoFxG 0.35 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Cercle Brugge – Sint-Truiden
Predicted score matrix
Sint-Truiden →
Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–18.5%
0–26.5%
0–33.2%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–07.7%
1–112.2%
1–28.7%
1–34.3%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.4%
2–18.0%
2–25.9%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.6%
3–22.6%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,35–1,47
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,547%
@2.13
Over 2,553%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sint-Truiden or draw (X2)66%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Keisuke Goto to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Oumar Diakité to score22%
- Visar Musliu to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Sint-Truiden41% probability@2.92BetsafeEV+20%
- 2 · Sint-Truiden41% probability@2.92BetssonEV+20%
- 2 · Sint-Truiden41% probability@2.92NordicbetEV+20%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cercle Brugge | X | 2 · Sint-Truiden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 2.42 | EV+ 3% 3.70 | EV+ 16% 2.82 |
| Betsafe | 2.30 | 3.45 | EV+ 20% 2.92 |
| Betsson | 2.30 | 3.45 | EV+ 20% 2.92 |
| Nordicbet | 2.30 | 3.45 | EV+ 20% 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.56 | EV+ 20% 2.92 |
Odds updated 12 Aug, 11:35
Odds movement
1+2 %
44 %39 %
2.27 → 2.32
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.56 → 3.56
2-3 %
35 %30 %
3.01 → 2.92
Over 2,50 %
58 %53 %
1.71 → 1.71
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 10/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesCercle Brugge 3Draw 3Sint-Truiden 2
Goals: 14–10 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
- Cercle Brugge KSV have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cercle Brugge
Sint-Truiden
Cercle Brugge (53–58)
Sint-Truiden (61–46)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cercle Brugge
Sint-Truiden
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cercle Brugge
Sint-Truiden
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cercle Brugge | Sint-Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41 | 71 |
| xPoints | 54.3 | 58.3 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Cercle Brugge | Sint-Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 295 | 416 |
| Passes against per match | 334 | 326 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.7 | 31.9 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Cercle Brugge | Sint-Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| Other | Cercle Brugge | Sint-Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Warleson Steillon Lisboa Oliveira (Cercle Brugge) | Leo Brian Kokubo (Sint-Truiden) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 69 | 110 |
| Save % | 75% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cercle Brugge vs Sint-Truiden according to our model?
The model gives Sint-Truiden a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cercle Brugge 31%, draw 28%, Sint-Truiden 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.