Belgian Pro LeaguePlanet Group Arena, Gent19°3,2 mm31 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    GentGentBalanced & physical
    vs
    Club BruggeClub BruggePossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Club Brugge (61%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.45 (+16 %)

    Gent – Club Brugge · Belgian Pro League

    1 · Gent 18%X 21%61% Club Brugge · 2

    Analysis: Gent – Club Brugge

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Club Brugge's 61% model probability to win this match against Gent underscores their dominance, both historically and in current form. With a high-scoring average of 3.5 goals per meeting, this fixture typically delivers entertainment. Brugge's relentless scoring, netting in 20 consecutive league matches, coupled with their possession-based and high-press style, suggests they will control the tempo and enforce their strategy on a balanced and physical Gent side.

    The head-to-head record, while indicating a Brugge advantage with six wins from ten encounters, holds less weight than the stark season performance differences. Brugge's four-game winning streak and xG advantage of 3.4 per match highlight their attacking prowess. Gent’s defensive resilience (xGA of 0.42) will be tested against Brugge’s attacking machine. Despite the hosts’ solidity at the back, their inferior xPoints of 3.9 against Brugge’s 6.2 points to an uphill battle.

    A likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Club Brugge, with the over 2.5 goals at 67% an appealing play. For those hunting value, the over 4.5 goals at odds of 4.45 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, given a model rating of 26%, presents a significant 16% edge.

    GentGent
    Form DLDWW
    League ranking xG #12xGA #1xT #16xP/match #3Points #5
    Key players
    • Momodou Lamin SonkoLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.13
    • Josué Yamir Vergara OrtegaFxG 0.82 · xT -0.01
    • Tiago AraujoLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
    Club BruggeClub Brugge
    Form DWWWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #2xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Kyriani SabbeRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.33
    • Carlos ForbsRWxG 0.38 · xT 0.45
    • Mamadou DiakhonLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.50

    Match prediction: Gent – Club Brugge

    Predicted score matrix

    Club Brugge →
    Gent →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.5%
    0–16.8%
    0–27.8%
    0–35.7%
    0–4+5.2%
    1
    1–03.7%
    1–19.0%
    1–29.6%
    1–37.1%
    1–4+6.5%
    2
    2–02.5%
    2–15.4%
    2–25.9%
    2–34.4%
    2–4+4.0%
    3
    3–01.0%
    3–12.2%
    3–22.4%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+1.6%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-210%
    2. 2.1-19%
    3. 3.0-28%
    4. 4.1-37%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,23–2,20
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,533%
    @2.32
    Over 2,567%
    @1.58EV+5%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Club Brugge to win61%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.93

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Club Brugge to win61%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%
    • Christos Tzolis to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%
    • Christos Tzolis to score28%
    • Matties Volckaert to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.526% probability@4.45BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
    • Over 4.526% probability@4.45BetssonEV+16%reference odds
    • Over 4.526% probability@4.45NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · GentX2 · Club Brugge
    Betsafe4.353.80
    EV+ 7%
    1.75
    Betsson4.353.80
    EV+ 7%
    1.75
    Nordicbet4.353.80
    EV+ 7%
    1.75
    Pinnacle4.154.17
    EV+ 5%
    1.73

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:39

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    26 %21 %

    4.05 → 4.15

    X+2 %
    25 %20 %

    4.07 → 4.17

    2-2 %
    57 %52 %

    1.77 → 1.73

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    10 matches
    Gent 2Draw 2Club Brugge 6
    Goals: 10–25 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Club Brugge KV dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 2 in 10 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.5 goals per meeting on average.
    • Club Brugge KV come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    • Club Brugge KV have scored in 20 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Gent
    Club Brugge
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Gent (4–1)
    Club Brugge (7–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Gent
    Siebe Van der Heyden: 167 passningar, xT 0.2HeydenChristian Burgess: 127 passningar, xT 0.08BurgessMouhamed El Bachir Ngom: 106 passningar, xT 0.31NgomTiago Araujo: 92 passningar, xT 0.19AraujoLeonardo Lopes: 71 passningar, xT -0.04LopesDavy Roef: 64 passningar, xT 0.05RoefAbdelkahar Kadri: 60 passningar, xT 0.01KadriTibe De Vlieger: 58 passningar, xT 0.02VliegerAime Omgba: 53 passningar, xT -0.04OmgbaMatties Volckaert: 39 passningar, xT 0.06VolckaertMomodou Lamin Sonko: 37 passningar, xT 0.22Sonko
    Club Brugge
    Han-Beom Lee: 300 passningar, xT 0.29LeeBrandon Mechele: 258 passningar, xT 0.13MecheleKyriani Sabbe: 246 passningar, xT 0.9SabbeHans Vanaken: 231 passningar, xT 0.34VanakenFreddie Potts: 214 passningar, xT 0.59PottsJoaquin Seys: 158 passningar, xT 0.26SeysYann Sommer: 136 passningar, xT 0.19SommerHugo Vetlesen: 97 passningar, xT 0.02VetlesenCarlos Forbs: 85 passningar, xT 1.17ForbsMamadou Diakhon: 85 passningar, xT 1.04DiakhonNicolò Tresoldi: 43 passningar, xT 0.11Tresoldi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Gent
    Siebe Van der Heyden: 167 passningar, xT 0.2HeydenChristian Burgess: 127 passningar, xT 0.08BurgessMouhamed El Bachir Ngom: 106 passningar, xT 0.31NgomTiago Araujo: 92 passningar, xT 0.19AraujoLeonardo Lopes: 71 passningar, xT -0.04LopesDavy Roef: 64 passningar, xT 0.05RoefAbdelkahar Kadri: 60 passningar, xT 0.01KadriTibe De Vlieger: 58 passningar, xT 0.02VliegerAime Omgba: 53 passningar, xT -0.04OmgbaMatties Volckaert: 39 passningar, xT 0.06VolckaertMomodou Lamin Sonko: 37 passningar, xT 0.22Sonko
    Club Brugge
    Han-Beom Lee: 300 passningar, xT 0.29LeeBrandon Mechele: 258 passningar, xT 0.13MecheleKyriani Sabbe: 246 passningar, xT 0.9SabbeHans Vanaken: 231 passningar, xT 0.34VanakenFreddie Potts: 214 passningar, xT 0.59PottsJoaquin Seys: 158 passningar, xT 0.26SeysYann Sommer: 136 passningar, xT 0.19SommerHugo Vetlesen: 97 passningar, xT 0.02VetlesenCarlos Forbs: 85 passningar, xT 1.17ForbsMamadou Diakhon: 85 passningar, xT 1.04DiakhonNicolò Tresoldi: 43 passningar, xT 0.11Tresoldi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGentClub Brugge
    Points69
    xPoints3.96.2
    xG per match1.13.4
    xGA per match0.420.79
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.390.38
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.19
    Playing styleGentClub Brugge
    Build-up efficiency0.30.34
    Field tilt0.460.78
    xT per match0.652
    xTA per match0.570.51
    Won balls, offensive half3328
    Pressing intensity0.20.22
    Pressing efficiency0.250.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.33
    Entries into the box per match823
    Entries into the box against77
    Pass completion %0.810.85
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.79
    Passes per match478648
    Passes against per match394210
    Switches of play per match51.234.7
    Long balls per match4935
    Set piecesGentClub Brugge
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match310.4
    Corners against per match3.53
    xG per corner0.010.07
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.55
    First touch, defensive corners %10.67
    OtherGentClub Brugge
    Throw-in control0.650.73
    The goalkeepersDavy Roef (Gent)Yann Sommer (Club Brugge)
    Saves67
    Save %86%100%
    xG prevented73%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Gent vs Club Brugge according to our model?

    The model gives Club Brugge a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gent 18%, draw 21%, Club Brugge 61%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Club BruggeClub Brugge
    3–0
    KortrijkKortrijk
    1 71%X 16%2 14%
    The model called the outcome
    Sint-TruidenSint-Truiden
    1–1
    LommelLommel
    1 62%X 19%2 19%
    The model missed the outcome
    Standard LiègeStandard Liège
    2–2
    Cercle BruggeCercle Brugge
    1 36%X 31%2 34%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.