Gent vs OH Leuven: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League22 August 2026Planet Group Arena, Gent15°1,4 mm13 km/h

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GentBalanced & physical

OH LeuvenLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Gent (50%)

1 · Gent 50%X 27%23% OH Leuven · 2

50%

27%

23%

Analysis: Gent – OH Leuven

Erik Lindberg · 17 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Six points separate these two sides in the Belgian Pro League, with KAA Gent clearly the frontrunner given their early season form. Their balance and physicality are proving effective, evidenced by a solid 1.69 expected goals per game. Meanwhile, Oud-Heverlee Leuven's vulnerabilities are glaring, especially in defence, conceding an average of 4.1 expected goals per match. It's no wonder they've yet to secure a point, losing all three recent fixtures.

KAA Gent, despite a small sample size of eight head-to-head matches, have struggled against Oud-Heverlee Leuven historically, recording only two wins. Yet, it's their current form that holds more weight here. Having accumulated six points with an expected points tally of 3.9, they seem to have found a stride that should overwhelm their opponents, who are yet to appear competent based on an xPoints of just 0.7.

The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 suggest a close match, but the numbers lean towards KAA Gent securing a victory, possibly by a narrow margin. While both teams have a 55% likelihood to score, the 54% chance of over 2.5 goals hints at a potentially lively affair, albeit that might be dampened if the weather decides to meddle with rain or wind.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven's low defensive stance and direct playstyle might need a rethink, especially as they face a KAA Gent side that not only scores but also concedes little, with an impressively low xGA of 0.42. The strategic gap might be too wide for Oud-Heverlee Leuven to bridge in this encounter.

For bettors, KAA Gent emerging victorious seems the value play here. With odds of 50% implied by the model, they offer an edge against a struggling Oud-Heverlee Leuven. Keep an eye on the weather, as it could skew the goal tally, but a 2-1 win for KAA Gent feels like a bet worth considering.

Gent

Form DLDWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #1xT #14xP/match #4Points #2

Key players

Momodou Lamin SonkoLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.13
Josué Yamir Vergara OrtegaFxG 0.82 · xT -0.01
Tiago AraujoLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09

OH Leuven

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #18xT #9xP/match #18Points #17

Key players

Wouter GeorgeCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.31
Oscar GilRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.13
Siebe SchrijversCDMxG 0.19 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Gent – OH Leuven

Predicted score matrix

OH Leuven →

Gent →

0–06.3%

0–16.4%

0–23.8%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–09.8%

1–111.7%

1–26.4%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.5%

2–19.6%

2–25.4%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.8%

3–15.4%

3–23.1%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.0%

4+–13.4%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,69–1,13

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

–

Over 2,554%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Gent to win50%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Gent to win50%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Ibrahima Cisse to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Ibrahima Cisse to score32%
Wouter George to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Gent 2Draw 2OH Leuven 4

Goals: 10–11 (⌀ 2,6)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

Oud-Heverlee Leuven dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
Oud-Heverlee Leuven have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gent

OH Leuven

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gent (4–1)

OH Leuven (1–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gent

OH Leuven

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gent

OH Leuven

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gent	OH Leuven
Points	6	0
xPoints	3.9	0.7
xG per match	1.1	1.1
xGA per match	0.42	4.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.43
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.1

Playing style	Gent	OH Leuven
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.46	0.36
xT per match	0.65	1.1
xTA per match	0.57	2.3
Won balls, offensive half	34	30
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.27
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.19
Entries into the box per match	8	13
Entries into the box against	7	25
Pass completion %	0.81	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.69
Passes per match	480	289
Passes against per match	396	471
Switches of play per match	51.5	16.2
Long balls per match	50	26

Set pieces	Gent	OH Leuven
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	3	3
Corners against per match	3.5	11.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.67
First touch, defensive corners %	1	0.5

Other	Gent	OH Leuven
Throw-in control	0.65	0.75

The goalkeepers	Davy Roef (Gent)	Dani Van Den Heuvel (OH Leuven)
Saves	6	12
Save %	86%	67%
xG prevented	73%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gent vs OH Leuven according to our model?

The model gives Gent a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gent 50%, draw 27%, OH Leuven 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.