Lommel vs Royal Charleroi: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League16 August 2026Soevereinstadion, Lommel22°13 km/h

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LommelLow block & direct

Royal Charleroi

The model's lean: 2 · Royal Charleroi (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Lommel @ 3.30 (+21 %)

1 · Lommel 37%X 26%37% Royal Charleroi · 2

37%

26%

37%

Analysis: Lommel – Royal Charleroi

Sofia Andersson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

The numbers tell a tale of balance, with both Lommel and RSC Charleroi sitting equally favored at 37% to claim victory. This parity suggests a tension that could tilt either way, but the model leans slightly towards RSC Charleroi, perhaps hinting at a subtle edge in quality or form. However, Lommel isn't without its appeal, particularly when considering the value bets on offer. With a 16% edge, backing Lommel at odds of 3.15 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet isn't just tempting—it's statistically enticing.

RSC Charleroi have been riding a wave of steady performances, reflected in expected goals of 1.57 compared to Lommel's 1.37. But numbers only paint part of the picture; both teams are prone to conceding, with a 59% probability of finding the net against each other. The 1-1 scoreline emerges as the most probable outcome at 12%, highlighting the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Yet, the whisper of a 1-2 or 0-1 victory for the visitors lingers in the undercurrent, amplifying the lean towards RSC Charleroi, especially if they can capitalize on key moments.

Lommel will be keen to exploit any frailties in Charleroi's setup, and with the model tipping over 2.5 goals at a 56% chance, an open contest is on the cards. Weather conditions aren't playing a disruptive role, so expect both sides to go full throttle in their attacking pursuits. Lommel's loyal backers might find reassurance in the home value bets, but the evidence tilts the balance towards a leaner, more calculated Charleroi.

Ultimately, the cautious bettor might hedge towards a draw or a narrow Charleroi win, while those with a taste for risk could find Lommel's home odds too good to pass up. A 1-2 victory in favor of Charleroi feels like the sharpest call, but don't dismiss the statistical allure of backing Lommel at those juicy odds.

Lommel

Form D

League ranking xG #5xGA #9xT #10xP/match #6Points #7

Key players

Lucas SchoofsCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.01
Tom ReynersFxG 0.10 · xT 0.22
Joey PelupessyLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.02

Royal Charleroi

Form WLDWW

Key players

Aurélien ScheidlerFxG 0.36 · xT 0.04
Parfait GuiagonLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.17
Patrick PflückeRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Lommel – Royal Charleroi

Predicted score matrix

Royal Charleroi →

Lommel →

0–05.6%

0–18.0%

0–26.5%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.9%

1–06.9%

1–111.7%

1–28.9%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.6%

2–05.0%

2–17.8%

2–26.1%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.8%

3–02.3%

3–13.6%

3–22.8%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,37–1,57

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@1.94

Over 2,556%

@1.91EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Royal Charleroi or draw (X2)67%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Royal Charleroi or draw (X2)67%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Aurélien Scheidler to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Lucas Schoofs to score30%
Joey Mathijs Pelupessy to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Lommel37% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+21%
1 · Lommel37% probability@3.30BetssonEV+21%
1 · Lommel37% probability@3.30NordicbetEV+21%

Bookmaker	1 · Lommel	X	2 · Royal Charleroi
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 8% 2.94	3.50	2.42
Betsafe	EV+ 21% 3.30	3.45	2.10
Betsson	EV+ 21% 3.30	3.45	2.10
Nordicbet	EV+ 21% 3.30	3.45	2.10
Pinnacle	EV+ 15% 3.14	3.47	2.24

Odds updated 12 Aug, 20:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

32 %27 %

3.21 → 3.14

X-1 %

30 %25 %

3.51 → 3.47

2+3 %

45 %40 %

2.18 → 2.24

Over 2,50 %

53 %48 %

1.90 → 1.91

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 11/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lommel

Royal Charleroi

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lommel (1–1)

Royal Charleroi (3–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lommel

Royal Charleroi

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lommel

Royal Charleroi

The goalkeepers	Matthias Pieklak (Lommel)	Mohamed Koné (Royal Charleroi)
Saves	3	2
Save %	75%	67%
xG prevented	81%	32%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lommel vs Royal Charleroi according to our model?

The model gives Royal Charleroi a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lommel 37%, draw 26%, Royal Charleroi 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.