01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw (1X)71%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Belgian Pro LeagueDen Dreef, Leuven14°13,5 mm24 km/h
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OH LeuvenLow block & directvs
La LouvièreLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · OH Leuven (43%)
OH Leuven – La Louvière · Belgian Pro League
1 · OH Leuven 43%X 30%27% La Louvière · 2
43%
30%
27%
Analysis: OH Leuven – La Louvière
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Two head-to-head encounters since 2023, with a draw and a win for La Louvière, might suggest a tilt toward the visitors. Yet, with a sample this small, it holds little sway compared to the present form and expected goals. Leuven's recent six-match losing streak paints a stark contrast to La Louvière's modest but tangible edge in points and xPoints amassed this season. These figures hint at a tighter contest rather than a clear victor, with Leuven grappling for stability.
Leuven's scoring potential, pegged at 1.59 xG, speaks to sporadic offensive promise. In contrast, La Louvière's 1.22 xG suggests they might lean more on defensive lapses from their opponents. Both sides share a low-defense, direct playing style, indicating a possible back-and-forth rather than a strategic stalemate. With both teams expected to score in 57% of scenarios, goals could come from either end, adding layers to this matchup.
The model leans toward Leuven with a 43% chance of victory, yet the most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 12% underscores the draw's 30% probability. An over 2.5 goals probability of 53% signals goals are on the cards, though not overwhelmingly so. This aligns with the likelihood of a 2-1 outcome more than a goal drought, although neither team is secure at the back.
There's a glint of value for those eyeing La Louvière as the underdogs. With a 27% win probability, odds longer than 3.70 on La Louvière capture potential mispricing. Their edge in points and xPoints over a Leuven side struggling with form could turn the odds in their favor.
OH LeuvenForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #6xP/match #18Points #17
Key players
- Jamie LawrenceCBxG 0.27 · xT 0.21
- Wouter GeorgeRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.27
- Oscar GilRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
La LouvièreForm LLLDL
League ranking xG #17xGA #16xT #16xP/match #14Points #16
Key players
- Mustapha Isah UbandomaFxG 0.53 · xT 0.01
- Zsombor GruberFxG 0.14 · xT 0.19
- Elias Zaïan FiletFxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: OH Leuven – La Louvière
Predicted score matrix
La Louvière →
OH Leuven →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–17.0%
0–24.5%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–09.2%
1–112.0%
1–27.1%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.6%
2–19.3%
2–25.7%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.0%
3–14.9%
3–23.0%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.8%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,59–1,22
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
–
Over 2,553%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw (1X)71%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Siebe Schrijvers to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Mustapha Isah Ubandoma to score26%
- Djibril Lamego to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesOH Leuven 0Draw 1La Louvière 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven have lost 6 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
OH Leuven
La Louvière
OH Leuven (2–12)
La Louvière (4–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
OH Leuven
La Louvière
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
OH Leuven
La Louvière
The teams in numbers
| Performance | OH Leuven | La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| xPoints | 3 | 5.9 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.97 |
| xGA per match | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.66 |
| Playing style | OH Leuven | La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.25 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 21 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.6 |
| Passes per match | 387 | 239 |
| Passes against per match | 371 | 546 |
| Switches of play per match | 33 | 15.8 |
| Long balls per match | 42 | 27 |
| Set pieces | OH Leuven | La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Corners against per match | 8.5 | 7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.72 | 0.14 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.51 |
| Other | OH Leuven | La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Dani Van Den Heuvel (OH Leuven) | Marcos Peano (La Louvière) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 17 |
| Save % | 59% | 59% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins OH Leuven vs La Louvière according to our model?
The model gives OH Leuven a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OH Leuven 43%, draw 30%, La Louvière 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.