01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Gent or draw (X2)70%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Belgian Pro LeagueStade du Tivoli, La Louvière21°0,3 mm12 km/h
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La Louvièrevs
GentBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Gent (44%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 12.00 (+6 %)
La Louvière – Gent · Belgian Pro League
1 · La Louvière 29%X 28%44% Gent · 2
29%
28%
44%
Analysis: La Louvière – Gent
Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work
KAA Gent's 44% win probability sets the tone for their clash against RAAL La Louviere. While the head-to-head encounters are limited, with only two matches played since 2023, and hardly a reliable source of prediction, they make for intriguing context. KAA Gent has managed a draw and a win, echoing their slightly dominant posture against RAAL. However, the small sample size of these meetings means we must lean heavily on current form and expected goals for a sharper analysis.
RAAL La Louviere steps onto the pitch with a model-projected 1.10 expected goals, lagging marginally behind Gent's 1.37. With a tight expected goals margin, the game is poised to be a closely contested affair. Historical trends might suggest a low-scoring game, especially considering the most likely scorelines: a 1-1 draw, followed by a slender 0-1 win for Gent. Notably, the probability of only a single goal being scored across the entire match is underscored by the model's 45% chance of over 2.5 goals—suggesting a lean towards a more reserved scoreline.
RAAL La Louviere appears as the underdog, yet not overwhelmingly so. Their 29% chance of winning is not negligible, but with both teams having a 50% probability of scoring, it could very well be a razor-thin margin that decides this contest. The draw, clocking in at 28%, remains a formidable outcome, with the 1-1 scoreline being the likeliest scenario at 13%.
The real betting value emerges in the under goals market. Pinnacle offers under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.917, presenting a 6% edge as calculated by the model, a smart angle for those pondering a cagey encounter. Additionally, an unlikely goalless draw could be a punt worth considering, with both Betsafe and Betsson offering odds of 12.0 for under 0.5 goals—a luxurious price with a subtle 6% edge. As always in football betting, it's these slivers of value that could make all the difference.
La LouvièreForm LLLWL
Key players
- Joël Ito Kavuanda SingaLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
- Elias Zaïan FiletFxG 0.00 · xT 0.00
- Ismaila Cheick CoulibalyCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.00
GentForm DDLDW
League ranking xG #6xGA #1xT #6xP/match #1Points #3
Key players
- Momodou Lamin SonkoLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.23
- Leonardo LopesCMxG 0.00 · xT -0.02
- Tiago AraujoLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: La Louvière – Gent
Predicted score matrix
Gent →
La Louvière →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.8%
0–111.2%
0–28.0%
0–33.6%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–08.9%
1–113.1%
1–28.7%
1–34.0%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–05.1%
2–17.0%
2–24.8%
2–32.2%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–01.9%
3–12.6%
3–21.8%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-29%
Expected goals
1,10–1,37
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.91EV+3%
Over 2,545%
@1.91
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Gent or draw (X2)70%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Abdelkahar Kadri to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Abdelkahar Kadri to score21%
- Matties Volckaert to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.59% probability@12.00BetsafeEV+6%
- Under 0.59% probability@12.00BetssonEV+6%
- Under 0.59% probability@12.00NordicbetEV+6%
| Bookmaker | 1 · La Louvière | X | 2 · Gent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 3.10 | 3.40 | EV+ 1% 2.32 |
| Betsafe | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.28 |
| Betsson | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.28 |
| Nordicbet | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.28 |
| Paddy Power | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 3.02 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:36
Odds movement
1+5 %
35 %30 %
2.88 → 3.02
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.51 → 3.51
2-4 %
43 %38 %
2.37 → 2.28
Over 2,50 %
53 %48 %
1.90 → 1.91
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesLa Louvière 0Draw 1Gent 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
La Louvière
Gent
La Louvière (1–2)
Gent (2–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
La Louvière
Gent
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
La Louvière
Gent
| The goalkeepers | Salomon Patrick Amougou Nkoa (La Louvière) | Davy Roef (Gent) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 2 |
| Save % | 100% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins La Louvière vs Gent according to our model?
The model gives Gent a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: La Louvière 29%, draw 28%, Gent 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.