Belgian Pro LeagueBosuilstadion, Antwerpen19°0,1 mm28 km/h

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    Royal AntwerpRoyal AntwerpCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–4
    Sint-TruidenSint-TruidenPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Sint-Truiden (41%)

    Royal Antwerp – Sint-Truiden · Belgian Pro League

    1 · Royal Antwerp 32%X 28%41% Sint-Truiden · 2

    Analysis: Royal Antwerp – Sint-Truiden

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    In the realm of Belgian Pro League predictions, Sint-Truiden's 41% chance to triumph against Royal Antwerp, despite being the visitors, stands out. This tilt in favor of Sint-Truidense VV isn't just a matter of gut feeling; it’s underpinned by their expected goals (xG) superiority. With an xG of 1.57 compared to Antwerp's 1.27, the visitors are statistically poised to create more high-quality chances. Yet, it's a tale of two narratives: Antwerp’s unbeaten streak in their last five league matches and their historical dominance in this fixture complicates the picture.

    Antwerp's recent form and defensive resilience, evident from their lower xGA of 0.99 compared to Sint-Truiden's leaky 2.6, suggest a tight battle. However, the model's projections favor a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-2 away victory, hinting at a match that might defy Antwerp's historical edge. While the over 2.5 goals probability nudges 54%, both teams scoring at 57% seems a safer bet, reflecting the clash between Antwerp's counter-attack efficiency and Sint-Truiden's possession play.

    The sharpest angle comes from the betting market: Sint-Truiden is valued at 2.75 odds with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, presenting a 12% edge based on the model's 41% probability. This offers an enticing proposition for those backing the visitors to upset the odds.

    Royal AntwerpRoyal Antwerp
    Form DWWWD
    League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #4xP/match #6Points #5
    Key players
    • Michael FreyFxG 0.97 · xT -0.02
    • Anthony ValenciaRWxG 0.55 · xT 0.45
    • Thibo SomersRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.23
    Sint-TruidenSint-Truiden
    Form DLWDD
    League ranking xG #2xGA #17xT #3xP/match #13Points #12
    Key players
    • Ilias SebaouiLWxG 0.69 · xT 0.14
    • Abdoulaye SissakoCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.02
    • Robert-Jan VanwesemaelRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.51
    Final score
    1 – 4
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Royal Antwerp 32% · Draw 28% · Sint-Truiden 41%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Sint-TruidenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,10fair 7,73+5 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - Royal AntwerpBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,78fair 11,89-43 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Royal Antwerp – Sint-Truiden

    Predicted score matrix

    Sint-Truiden →
    Royal Antwerp →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.2%
    0–18.9%
    0–27.2%
    0–33.8%
    0–4+2.1%
    1
    1–07.1%
    1–112.0%
    1–29.2%
    1–34.8%
    1–4+2.7%
    2
    2–04.7%
    2–17.4%
    2–25.8%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–02.0%
    3–13.1%
    3–22.4%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-17%
    5. 5.0-27%
    Expected goals
    1,27–1,57
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.20EV+1%
    Over 2,554%
    @1.71

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Sint-Truiden or draw (X2)70%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Sint-Truiden or draw (X2)70%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Andrés Martín Ferrari Malveira to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Andrés Martín Ferrari Malveira to score24%
    • Abdoulaye Sissako to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Sint-Truiden41% probability@2.87PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · Sint-Truiden41% probability@2.82BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
    • 2 · Sint-Truiden41% probability@2.82BetssonEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Royal AntwerpX2 · Sint-Truiden
    Betsafe2.353.45
    EV+ 15%
    2.82
    Betsson2.353.45
    EV+ 15%
    2.82
    Nordicbet2.353.45
    EV+ 15%
    2.82
    Pinnacle2.42
    EV+ 0%
    3.64
    EV+ 17%
    2.87

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 1.82 to 1.71 (−6%).

    1-6 %
    42 %37 %

    2.58 → 2.42

    X+6 %
    30 %25 %

    3.42 → 3.64

    2+7 %
    36 %31 %

    2.68 → 2.87

    Over 2,5-6 %
    57 %52 %

    1.82 → 1.71

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Royal Antwerp 3Draw 2Sint-Truiden 1
    Goals: 12–4 (⌀ 2,7)

    Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Royal Antwerp FC dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
    • Royal Antwerp FC are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Royal Antwerp
    Sint-Truiden
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Royal Antwerp (9–5)
    Sint-Truiden (4–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Royal Antwerp
    Rein Van Helden: 155 passningar, xT 0.22HeldenYuto Tsunashima: 126 passningar, xT 0.18TsunashimaEran Tuypens: 104 passningar, xT 0.31TuypensThibo Somers: 87 passningar, xT 0.69SomersJules Ahoka Jules: 78 passningar, xT 0.46JulesAnthony Valencia: 66 passningar, xT 0.58ValenciaTaishi Brandon Nozawa: 58 passningar, xT 0.1NozawaXander Dierckx: 56 passningar, xT 0.28DierckxIbrahim Salah: 50 passningar, xT 0.13SalahLuca Schelfhout: 49 passningar, xT 0.19SchelfhoutModibo Fofana: 45 passningar, xT 0.36Fofana
    Sint-Truiden
    Loïc Junior Mbe Soh: 140 passningar, xT 0.25SohVisar Musliu: 138 passningar, xT 0.16MusliuAbdoulaye Sissako: 106 passningar, xT 0.03SissakoJoedrick Pupe: 105 passningar, xT 0.4PupeTaiga Hata: 82 passningar, xT 1.26HataNelson Ishiwatari: 74 passningar, xT -0.03IshiwatariLeo Brian Kokubo: 73 passningar, xT 0.08KokuboIlias Sebaoui: 70 passningar, xT 0.27SebaouiRobert-Jan Vanwesemael: 66 passningar, xT 1VanwesemaelRyan Merlen: 42 passningar, xT 0.27MerlenFrederic Leroi Soelle Soelle: 14 passningar, xT -0.01Soelle
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Royal Antwerp
    Rein Van Helden: 155 passningar, xT 0.22HeldenYuto Tsunashima: 126 passningar, xT 0.18TsunashimaEran Tuypens: 104 passningar, xT 0.31TuypensThibo Somers: 87 passningar, xT 0.69SomersJules Ahoka Jules: 78 passningar, xT 0.46JulesAnthony Valencia: 66 passningar, xT 0.58ValenciaTaishi Brandon Nozawa: 58 passningar, xT 0.1NozawaXander Dierckx: 56 passningar, xT 0.28DierckxIbrahim Salah: 50 passningar, xT 0.13SalahLuca Schelfhout: 49 passningar, xT 0.19SchelfhoutModibo Fofana: 45 passningar, xT 0.36Fofana
    Sint-Truiden
    Loïc Junior Mbe Soh: 140 passningar, xT 0.25SohVisar Musliu: 138 passningar, xT 0.16MusliuAbdoulaye Sissako: 106 passningar, xT 0.03SissakoJoedrick Pupe: 105 passningar, xT 0.4PupeTaiga Hata: 82 passningar, xT 1.26HataNelson Ishiwatari: 74 passningar, xT -0.03IshiwatariLeo Brian Kokubo: 73 passningar, xT 0.08KokuboIlias Sebaoui: 70 passningar, xT 0.27SebaouiRobert-Jan Vanwesemael: 66 passningar, xT 1VanwesemaelRyan Merlen: 42 passningar, xT 0.27MerlenFrederic Leroi Soelle Soelle: 14 passningar, xT -0.01Soelle

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRoyal AntwerpSint-Truiden
    Points72
    xPoints5.52.1
    xG per match22.2
    xGA per match0.992.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.170.38
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.10.39
    Playing styleRoyal AntwerpSint-Truiden
    Build-up efficiency0.310.29
    Field tilt0.540.61
    xT per match1.61.9
    xTA per match0.911
    Won balls, offensive half4026
    Pressing intensity0.230.2
    Pressing efficiency0.320.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.25
    Entries into the box per match1720
    Entries into the box against1311
    Pass completion %0.730.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.77
    Passes per match341448
    Passes against per match347328
    Switches of play per match18.141.6
    Long balls per match2950
    Set piecesRoyal AntwerpSint-Truiden
    xG from free kicks0.020
    Corners per match6.74.4
    Corners against per match3.45.8
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.11
    First touch, offensive corners %0.350.78
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.67
    OtherRoyal AntwerpSint-Truiden
    Throw-in control0.680.69
    The goalkeepersTaishi Brandon Nozawa (Royal Antwerp)Leo Brian Kokubo (Sint-Truiden)
    Saves87
    Save %62%70%
    xG prevented45%35%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Royal Antwerp
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sint-Truiden
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Royal Antwerp vs Sint-Truiden according to our model?

    The model gives Sint-Truiden a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Royal Antwerp 32%, draw 28%, Sint-Truiden 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    1 71%X 16%2 14%
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    Sint-TruidenSint-Truiden
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    LommelLommel
    1 62%X 19%2 19%
    The model missed the outcome
    Standard LiègeStandard Liège
    2–2
    Cercle BruggeCercle Brugge
    1 36%X 31%2 34%
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.