Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lommel: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Belgian Pro League12 September 2026Stade Joseph Marien, Bryssel18°14 km/h

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Union Saint-GilloisePossession control

LommelCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Union Saint-Gilloise (71%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lommel @ 10.98 (+30 %)

1 · Union Saint-Gilloise 71%X 18%12% Lommel · 2

71%

18%

Analysis: Union Saint-Gilloise – Lommel

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT:

A dominant 71% probability for Royale Union Saint-Gilloise captures the essence of this fixture against Lommel. With a most likely scoreline of 2-0 and an expected goals tally of 2.19 to 0.71, the hosts’ possession control style seems poised to exploit the visitors’ counter-attack tendencies. Historically, Union has proven formidable at home, winning 79% of their matches. They're on a three-match winning streak, further bolstering their confidence.

While Lommel's counter-attacking approach might pose occasional threats, their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.5 per match suggests their defense might struggle. Union's ability to convert possession into goals has been evident, with xG figures consistently higher than their opponents. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 55%, but the numbers tilt more convincingly towards a straightforward win for the hosts.

The model leans towards a controlled, low-risk outcome; a 2-0 victory seems the soundest prediction given the current form and expected outputs. The chance of both teams scoring remains under 50%, highlighting an opportunity for a clean sheet bet. It's a matchup where pragmatism seems the safest play: backing Union with confidence.

Union Saint-Gilloise

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #7xT #7xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Mateo BiondicFxG 0.33 · xT 0.07
Besfort ZeneliLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.10
Adem ZorganeCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.44

Lommel

Form DLWWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #8xT #17xP/match #12Points #11

Key players

Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah KonaduFxG 0.36 · xT 0.01
Jason van DuivenRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Lucas SchoofsCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise – Lommel

Predicted score matrix

Lommel →

Union Saint-Gilloise →

0–05.7%

0–13.6%

0–21.4%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.8%

1–18.8%

1–23.0%

1–30.7%

1–4+0.1%

2–013.2%

2–19.4%

2–23.3%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.7%

3–16.8%

3–22.4%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–08.8%

4+–16.3%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-012%
3.3-010%
4.2-19%
5.1-19%

Expected goals

2,19–0,71

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

–

Over 2,555%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Union Saint-Gilloise to win71%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Union Saint-Gilloise to win71%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Mateo Biondic to score41%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Mateo Biondic to score41%
Lucas Schoofs to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lommel12% probability@10.98PinnacleEV+30%reference odds
X · Draw18% probability@6.76PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
Under 3.567% probability@1.68PinnacleEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Union Saint-Gilloise	X	2 · Lommel
Pinnacle	1.21	EV+ 18% 6.76	EV+ 30% 10.98

Odds updated 11 Sept, 08:26

Odds movement

10 %

80 %75 %

1.21 → 1.21

X0 %

16 %11 %

6.75 → 6.76

20 %

11 %6 %

10.97 → 10.98

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise win 79% of their home matches all-time (42 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Union Saint-Gilloise

Lommel

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Union Saint-Gilloise (14–3)

Lommel (6–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Union Saint-Gilloise

Lommel

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Union Saint-Gilloise

Lommel

The teams in numbers

Performance	Union Saint-Gilloise	Lommel
Points	13	7
xPoints	8.9	6.5
xG per match	1.8	1.1
xGA per match	1.1	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.13

Playing style	Union Saint-Gilloise	Lommel
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.53	0.3
xT per match	1.2	0.67
xTA per match	0.9	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	34	20
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.16
Entries into the box per match	16	8
Entries into the box against	12	18
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.75
Passes per match	369	338
Passes against per match	367	462
Switches of play per match	21.3	20.9
Long balls per match	36	32

Set pieces	Union Saint-Gilloise	Lommel
xG from free kicks	0.19	0.1
Corners per match	5	3
Corners against per match	3.6	8
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.6
First touch, defensive corners %	0.72	0.57

Other	Union Saint-Gilloise	Lommel
Throw-in control	0.69	0.7

The goalkeepers	Hervé Kouakou Koffi (Union Saint-Gilloise)	Matthias Pieklak (Lommel)
Saves	10	15
Save %	83%	88%
xG prevented	68%	93%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Union Saint-Gilloise

Fixtures, form & tips

Lommel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lommel according to our model?

The model gives Union Saint-Gilloise a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Union Saint-Gilloise 71%, draw 18%, Lommel 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.