Royal Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Belgian Pro League5 September 2026Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi18°0,1 mm16 km/h

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Royal CharleroiPossession control

2–3

Union Saint-GilloisePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Union Saint-Gilloise (50%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.85 (+3 %)

1 · Royal Charleroi 25%X 25%50% Union Saint-Gilloise · 2

25%

50%

Analysis: Royal Charleroi – Union Saint-Gilloise

Anna Karlsson · 4 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Four matches since 2023 between Charleroi and Union Saint-Gilloise have all tilted in favor of the visitors, with the Brussels-based club winning three and drawing one. Yet, it's crucial to remember that this head-to-head sample is small and shouldn't overshadow the current dynamics at play. Charleroi has been riding high with five successive victories in the league, a streak that suggests a shift in their fortunes. Meanwhile, Union remains unbeaten in their last six league outings, making this clash a battle of form versus history.

Charleroi's recent success is mirrored in their underlying metrics. They lead in expected points (8.0 to 7.3) and boast superior xG (2.1 per match) compared to Union Saint-Gilloise (1.8 per match). Defensively, they have also been tighter, with a lower xGA of 0.71 against the visitors' 0.96. These figures paint a picture of a team that not only scores but does so efficiently, while also limiting opponents' chances.

Despite Charleroi's apparent edge in metrics, the model probabilities lean towards Union Saint-Gilloise, giving them a 50% chance of securing a win. The most likely scorelines — 1-1 and 1-2 — reflect a tight match but give an edge to the visitors. However, the model also suggests a significant likelihood of goals, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. This reflects both sides' possession-oriented style, which could lead to an open game.

In terms of betting value, the odds appear to favor Union Saint-Gilloise, particularly with a lean towards a 1-2 victory. However, there might be value in exploring bets with bookmakers offering generous odds on both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, given the attacking capabilities on display. This nuanced approach respects the model's lean while capitalizing on Charleroi's recent form and underlying strength.

Royal Charleroi

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #4xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Aurélien ScheidlerFxG 0.58 · xT 0.12
Aiham OusouCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
Kévin Daniel Guitoun Van Den KerkhofRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.27

Union Saint-Gilloise

Form WWDWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #7xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Guilherme SmithLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.31
Kevin Mac AllisterCBxG 0.21 · xT 0.09
Adem ZorganeCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.45

Final score

2 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Royal Charleroi 25% · Draw 25% · Union Saint-Gilloise 50%

Match prediction: Royal Charleroi – Union Saint-Gilloise

Predicted score matrix

Union Saint-Gilloise →

Royal Charleroi →

0–05.8%

0–19.4%

0–28.7%

0–35.2%

0–4+3.5%

1–05.8%

1–111.3%

1–29.8%

1–35.8%

1–4+3.9%

2–03.4%

2–16.1%

2–25.5%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.2%

3–01.3%

3–12.3%

3–22.1%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-29%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,12–1,79

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.02

Over 2,556%

@1.85EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Union Saint-Gilloise to win50%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Union Saint-Gilloise to win50%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Promise Oluwatobi Emmanuel Akinpelu to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Promise Oluwatobi Emmanuel Akinpelu to score26%
Amine Boukamir to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.556% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
2 · Union Saint-Gilloise50% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Royal Charleroi	X	2 · Union Saint-Gilloise
Betfair Exchange	1.77	1.77	1.69
Pinnacle	3.60	3.71	EV+ 1% 2.03

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Union Saint-Gilloise win since 3 September — the odds have shortened from 2.19 to 2.03 (−7%).

1+14 %

31 %26 %

3.17 → 3.60

X+5 %

29 %24 %

3.54 → 3.71

2-7 %

48 %43 %

2.19 → 2.03

Over 2,5-5 %

53 %48 %

1.95 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Royal Charleroi 0Draw 1Union Saint-Gilloise 3

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

RSC Charleroi come into this round on 5 straight wins.
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Royal Charleroi

Union Saint-Gilloise

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Royal Charleroi (9–2)

Union Saint-Gilloise (11–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Royal Charleroi

Union Saint-Gilloise

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Royal Charleroi

Union Saint-Gilloise

The teams in numbers

Performance	Royal Charleroi	Union Saint-Gilloise
Points	12	10
xPoints	8	7.3
xG per match	2.1	1.8
xGA per match	0.71	0.96
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.21

Playing style	Royal Charleroi	Union Saint-Gilloise
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.59	0.53
xT per match	1.5	1.3
xTA per match	0.77	0.7
Won balls, offensive half	32	35
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.28
Entries into the box per match	16	16
Entries into the box against	9	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	430	402
Passes against per match	326	359
Switches of play per match	33	24.3
Long balls per match	42	38

Set pieces	Royal Charleroi	Union Saint-Gilloise
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.23
Corners per match	6.6	4.8
Corners against per match	3	3.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.85

Other	Royal Charleroi	Union Saint-Gilloise
Throw-in control	0.64	0.68

The goalkeepers	Mohamed Koné (Royal Charleroi)	Hervé Kouakou Koffi (Union Saint-Gilloise)
Saves	6	7
Save %	75%	100%
xG prevented	47%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Royal Charleroi

Fixtures, form & tips

Union Saint-Gilloise

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Royal Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise according to our model?

The model gives Union Saint-Gilloise a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Royal Charleroi 25%, draw 25%, Union Saint-Gilloise 50%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.