Belgian Pro LeagueStayen, Sint-Truiden17°19 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Sint-TruidenSint-TruidenCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    La LouvièreLa LouvièreLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Sint-Truiden (68%)

    Sint-Truiden – La Louvière · Belgian Pro League

    1 · Sint-Truiden 68%X 19%13% La Louvière · 2

    Analysis: Sint-Truiden – La Louvière

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Sint-Truidense VV commands a 68% probability to secure victory, showcasing their dominance on paper. Their recent head-to-head encounters with La Louviere, though a small sample of just two games, have seen them victorious each time. This aligns with their superior expected goals (xG) of 2.01 compared to the visitors’ 0.86, suggesting a firm grip on offensive opportunities.

    The hosts thrive on counter attacks and crossing plays, perfectly poised against La Louviere’s low defensive and direct approach. Despite Sint-Truidense's apparent control, the expected goals against (xGA) of 2.1 hints at potential vulnerabilities. Yet, La Louviere's own defensive fragility, with an xGA of 1.9, indicates they might struggle to capitalize fully, making a 2-0 or 1-0 scoreline plausible. The over 2.5 goals probability at 55% nudges towards a slightly higher-scoring affair, with a cautious lean toward the over.

    Bookmakers may offer value in backing Sint-Truidense VV outright given their favorable odds and model lean. However, the alignment of both teams to score at 50% and the most likely outcomes support a tighter margin. Seek value with careful scrutiny of odds, especially with bookmakers like Unibet, who might present a fitting price on a narrow home win.

    Sint-TruidenSint-Truiden
    Form LWDDW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #14xT #1xP/match #9Points #10
    Key players
    • Ilias SebaouiLWxG 0.76 · xT 0.19
    • Robert-Jan VanwesemaelRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.37
    • Abdoulaye SissakoCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.04
    La LouvièreLa Louvière
    Form WLLLD
    League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #16xP/match #12Points #15
    Key players
    • Mustapha Isah UbandomaFxG 0.62 · xT 0.01
    • Elias Zaïan FiletFxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
    • Zsombor GruberFxG 0.19 · xT 0.28

    Match prediction: Sint-Truiden – La Louvière

    Predicted score matrix

    La Louvière →
    Sint-Truiden →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.0%
    0–14.6%
    0–22.1%
    0–30.6%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–011.1%
    1–110.1%
    1–24.2%
    1–31.2%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–011.5%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–07.7%
    3–16.6%
    3–22.8%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–06.1%
    4+–15.2%
    4+–22.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,01–0,86
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,545%
    @2.11
    Over 2,555%
    @1.73

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sint-Truiden to win68%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sint-Truiden to win68%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Andrés Martín Ferrari Malveira to score33%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Andrés Martín Ferrari Malveira to score33%
    • Samuel Léopold Marie Gueulette to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Sint-Truiden68% probability@1.62BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Sint-Truiden68% probability@1.62BetssonEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Sint-Truiden68% probability@1.62NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sint-TruidenX2 · La Louvière
    Betsafe
    EV+ 10%
    1.62    		3.805.30
    Betsson
    EV+ 10%
    1.62    		3.805.30
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 10%
    1.62    		3.805.30
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 9%
    1.60    		3.804.75
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 9%
    1.60    		4.155.15

    Odds updated 3 Sept, 12:33

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    61 %56 %

    1.64 → 1.60

    X+3 %
    26 %21 %

    4.01 → 4.15

    2+3 %
    21 %16 %

    5.01 → 5.15

    Over 2,5-1 %
    57 %52 %

    1.75 → 1.73

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Sint-Truiden 2Draw 0La Louvière 0
    Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sint-Truiden
    La Louvière
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sint-Truiden (8–5)
    La Louvière (4–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sint-Truiden
    Visar Musliu: 174 passningar, xT 0.22MusliuLoïc Junior Mbe Soh: 140 passningar, xT 0.25SohAbdoulaye Sissako: 134 passningar, xT 0.11SissakoJoedrick Pupe: 105 passningar, xT 0.4PupeRobert-Jan Vanwesemael: 104 passningar, xT 1.08VanwesemaelTaiga Hata: 98 passningar, xT 1.29HataLeo Brian Kokubo: 95 passningar, xT 0.16KokuboIlias Sebaoui: 88 passningar, xT 0.49SebaouiNelson Ishiwatari: 80 passningar, xT -0.04IshiwatariRyan Merlen: 61 passningar, xT 0.39MerlenRyotaro Araki: 23 passningar, xT 0.11Araki
    La Louvière
    Ismaila Cheick Coulibaly: 120 passningar, xT 0.11CoulibalyWagane Faye: 120 passningar, xT 0.13FayeYllan Okou: 104 passningar, xT 0.43OkouMarcos Peano: 98 passningar, xT 0.17PeanoSalomon Patrick Amougou Nkoa: 95 passningar, xT 0.15NkoaShaquil David Delos: 80 passningar, xT 0.29DelosDjibril Lamego: 74 passningar, xT 0.16LamegoThierry Lutonda: 55 passningar, xT 0.48LutondaMame Ndiaga Wade: 48 passningar, xT 0.14WadeAnas Tajaouart: 37 passningar, xT 0.04TajaouartElias Zaïan Filet: 34 passningar, xT 0.11Filet
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sint-Truiden
    Visar Musliu: 174 passningar, xT 0.22MusliuLoïc Junior Mbe Soh: 140 passningar, xT 0.25SohAbdoulaye Sissako: 134 passningar, xT 0.11SissakoJoedrick Pupe: 105 passningar, xT 0.4PupeRobert-Jan Vanwesemael: 104 passningar, xT 1.08VanwesemaelTaiga Hata: 98 passningar, xT 1.29HataLeo Brian Kokubo: 95 passningar, xT 0.16KokuboIlias Sebaoui: 88 passningar, xT 0.49SebaouiNelson Ishiwatari: 80 passningar, xT -0.04IshiwatariRyan Merlen: 61 passningar, xT 0.39MerlenRyotaro Araki: 23 passningar, xT 0.11Araki
    La Louvière
    Ismaila Cheick Coulibaly: 120 passningar, xT 0.11CoulibalyWagane Faye: 120 passningar, xT 0.13FayeYllan Okou: 104 passningar, xT 0.43OkouMarcos Peano: 98 passningar, xT 0.17PeanoSalomon Patrick Amougou Nkoa: 95 passningar, xT 0.15NkoaShaquil David Delos: 80 passningar, xT 0.29DelosDjibril Lamego: 74 passningar, xT 0.16LamegoThierry Lutonda: 55 passningar, xT 0.48LutondaMame Ndiaga Wade: 48 passningar, xT 0.14WadeAnas Tajaouart: 37 passningar, xT 0.04TajaouartElias Zaïan Filet: 34 passningar, xT 0.11Filet

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSint-TruidenLa Louvière
    Points51
    xPoints4.45.3
    xG per match2.51.1
    xGA per match2.11.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.340.39
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.340.7
    Playing styleSint-TruidenLa Louvière
    Build-up efficiency0.290.33
    Field tilt0.550.25
    xT per match1.90.74
    xTA per match0.971.4
    Won balls, offensive half2630
    Pressing intensity0.220.25
    Pressing efficiency0.30.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.24
    Entries into the box per match179
    Entries into the box against1320
    Pass completion %0.790.68
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.59
    Passes per match384251
    Passes against per match341522
    Switches of play per match33.217.2
    Long balls per match4528
    Set piecesSint-TruidenLa Louvière
    xG from free kicks0.010.04
    Corners per match3.32.2
    Corners against per match5.95.7
    xG per corner0.070.04
    xGA per corner against0.080.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.80.22
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.48
    OtherSint-TruidenLa Louvière
    Throw-in control0.720.67
    The goalkeepersLeo Brian Kokubo (Sint-Truiden)Marcos Peano (La Louvière)
    Saves1414
    Save %78%64%
    xG prevented40%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sint-Truiden vs La Louvière according to our model?

    The model gives Sint-Truiden a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sint-Truiden 68%, draw 19%, La Louvière 13%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Club BruggeClub Brugge
    3–0
    KortrijkKortrijk
    1 71%X 16%2 14%
    The model called the outcome
    Sint-TruidenSint-Truiden
    1–1
    LommelLommel
    1 62%X 19%2 19%
    The model missed the outcome
    WesterloWesterlo
    1–5
    Union Saint-GilloiseUnion Saint-Gilloise
    1 20%X 23%2 57%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.