Belgian Pro LeagueStayen, Sint-Truiden18°14 km/h

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    Sint-TruidenSint-TruidenCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Union Saint-GilloiseUnion Saint-GilloisePossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Union Saint-Gilloise (50%)Best value by the model: 1 · Sint-Truiden @ 3.80 (+2 %)

    Sint-Truiden – Union Saint-Gilloise · Belgian Pro League

    1 · Sint-Truiden 27%X 23%50% Union Saint-Gilloise · 2

    Analysis: Sint-Truiden – Union Saint-Gilloise

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's 50% win probability casts a clear spotlight on their edge in this matchup against Sint-Truiden. With the visitors unbeaten in their last five league games and a dominant head-to-head record, their prowess is evident. Despite Sint-Truiden's counter-attacking style, the numbers tilt toward Union's possession-based control dictating play.

    The expected goals tell a compelling story: 1.84 for Union against 1.20 for the hosts, hinting at a tight yet favorable outcome for the visitors. While Sint-Truiden's xG per match is notably higher at 2.5, their high xGA of 2.1 undercuts this. Union's disciplined defense, reflected in an xGA of 1.1, could stifle the home side's attacking ambitions.

    The market's over 2.5 goals at 58% aligns with a potential 1-2 scoreline, offering a reasonable chance for a high-scoring affair despite Sint-Truiden’s defensive vulnerabilities. The head-to-head sample is small, but the trends are strong. This match leans toward a 1-2 victory for the visitors, with goals expected.

    Sint-TruidenSint-Truiden
    Form LWDDW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #14xT #1xP/match #9Points #10
    Key players
    • Ilias SebaouiLWxG 0.76 · xT 0.19
    • Robert-Jan VanwesemaelRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.37
    • Abdoulaye SissakoCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.04
    Union Saint-GilloiseUnion Saint-Gilloise
    Form DWWDW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #7xP/match #4Points #6
    Key players
    • Guilherme SmithLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.39
    • Mateo BiondicFxG 0.39 · xT 0.18
    • Kevin Mac AllisterCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.11

    Match prediction: Sint-Truiden – Union Saint-Gilloise

    Predicted score matrix

    Union Saint-Gilloise →
    Sint-Truiden →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.1%
    0–18.5%
    0–28.1%
    0–35.0%
    0–4+3.5%
    1
    1–05.4%
    1–110.9%
    1–29.7%
    1–36.0%
    1–4+4.2%
    2
    2–03.4%
    2–16.3%
    2–25.8%
    2–33.6%
    2–4+2.5%
    3
    3–01.4%
    3–12.5%
    3–22.3%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–00.5%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.2-16%
    Expected goals
    1,20–1,84
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @2.10
    Over 2,558%
    @1.75EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Union Saint-Gilloise to win50%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.30

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Union Saint-Gilloise to win50%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Kevin José Rodríguez Cortéz to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Kevin José Rodríguez Cortéz to score28%
    • Rob Schoofs to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Sint-Truiden27% probability@3.80PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    • Over 2.558% probability@1.75PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sint-TruidenX2 · Union Saint-Gilloise
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 2%
    3.80    		3.551.95

    Odds updated 1 Sept, 12:30

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    28 %23 %

    3.67 → 3.80

    X+4 %
    30 %25 %

    3.40 → 3.55

    2-5 %
    50 %45 %

    2.05 → 1.95

    Over 2,5-1 %
    57 %52 %

    1.77 → 1.75

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Sint-Truiden 1Draw 1Union Saint-Gilloise 4
    Goals: 4–9 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Royale Union Saint-Gilloise dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
    • Royale Union Saint-Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sint-Truiden
    Union Saint-Gilloise
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sint-Truiden (8–5)
    Union Saint-Gilloise (8–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sint-Truiden
    Visar Musliu: 174 passningar, xT 0.22MusliuLoïc Junior Mbe Soh: 140 passningar, xT 0.25SohAbdoulaye Sissako: 134 passningar, xT 0.11SissakoJoedrick Pupe: 105 passningar, xT 0.4PupeRobert-Jan Vanwesemael: 104 passningar, xT 1.08VanwesemaelTaiga Hata: 98 passningar, xT 1.29HataLeo Brian Kokubo: 95 passningar, xT 0.16KokuboIlias Sebaoui: 88 passningar, xT 0.49SebaouiNelson Ishiwatari: 80 passningar, xT -0.04IshiwatariRyan Merlen: 61 passningar, xT 0.39MerlenRyotaro Araki: 23 passningar, xT 0.11Araki
    Union Saint-Gilloise
    Kamiel Van de Perre: 140 passningar, xT 0.16PerreKevin Mac Allister: 137 passningar, xT 0.14AllisterFedde Leysen: 113 passningar, xT 0.51LeysenMassire Sylla: 96 passningar, xT 0.12SyllaRob Schoofs: 85 passningar, xT 0.05SchoofsNikki Havenaar: 72 passningar, xT 0.05HavenaarAdem Zorgane: 63 passningar, xT 0.66ZorganeLouis Patris: 62 passningar, xT 0.38PatrisBesfort Zeneli: 58 passningar, xT 0.15ZeneliHervé Kouakou Koffi: 56 passningar, xT 0.02KoffiGuilherme Smith: 53 passningar, xT 0.67Smith
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sint-Truiden
    Visar Musliu: 174 passningar, xT 0.22MusliuLoïc Junior Mbe Soh: 140 passningar, xT 0.25SohAbdoulaye Sissako: 134 passningar, xT 0.11SissakoJoedrick Pupe: 105 passningar, xT 0.4PupeRobert-Jan Vanwesemael: 104 passningar, xT 1.08VanwesemaelTaiga Hata: 98 passningar, xT 1.29HataLeo Brian Kokubo: 95 passningar, xT 0.16KokuboIlias Sebaoui: 88 passningar, xT 0.49SebaouiNelson Ishiwatari: 80 passningar, xT -0.04IshiwatariRyan Merlen: 61 passningar, xT 0.39MerlenRyotaro Araki: 23 passningar, xT 0.11Araki
    Union Saint-Gilloise
    Kamiel Van de Perre: 140 passningar, xT 0.16PerreKevin Mac Allister: 137 passningar, xT 0.14AllisterFedde Leysen: 113 passningar, xT 0.51LeysenMassire Sylla: 96 passningar, xT 0.12SyllaRob Schoofs: 85 passningar, xT 0.05SchoofsNikki Havenaar: 72 passningar, xT 0.05HavenaarAdem Zorgane: 63 passningar, xT 0.66ZorganeLouis Patris: 62 passningar, xT 0.38PatrisBesfort Zeneli: 58 passningar, xT 0.15ZeneliHervé Kouakou Koffi: 56 passningar, xT 0.02KoffiGuilherme Smith: 53 passningar, xT 0.67Smith

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSint-TruidenUnion Saint-Gilloise
    Points57
    xPoints4.45.1
    xG per match2.51.8
    xGA per match2.11.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.340.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.340.23
    Playing styleSint-TruidenUnion Saint-Gilloise
    Build-up efficiency0.290.31
    Field tilt0.550.53
    xT per match1.91.3
    xTA per match0.970.72
    Won balls, offensive half2634
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.30.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.27
    Entries into the box per match1716
    Entries into the box against1312
    Pass completion %0.790.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.71
    Passes per match384384
    Passes against per match341332
    Switches of play per match33.226.9
    Long balls per match4536
    Set piecesSint-TruidenUnion Saint-Gilloise
    xG from free kicks0.010.11
    Corners per match3.36.1
    Corners against per match5.93.4
    xG per corner0.070.03
    xGA per corner against0.080.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.80.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.8
    OtherSint-TruidenUnion Saint-Gilloise
    Throw-in control0.720.7
    The goalkeepersLeo Brian Kokubo (Sint-Truiden)Hervé Kouakou Koffi (Union Saint-Gilloise)
    Saves146
    Save %78%100%
    xG prevented40%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sint-Truiden vs Union Saint-Gilloise according to our model?

    The model gives Union Saint-Gilloise a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sint-Truiden 27%, draw 23%, Union Saint-Gilloise 50%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.