Belgian Pro LeagueFreethiel Stadion, Beveren18°14 km/h

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    BeverenBeverenBalanced & physical
    3–0
    OH LeuvenOH LeuvenLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Beveren (64%)

    Beveren – OH Leuven · Belgian Pro League

    1 · Beveren 64%X 21%15% OH Leuven · 2

    Analysis: Beveren – OH Leuven

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The tale of this matchup seems to favor Beveren, who are sitting comfortably with model probabilities giving them a 64% chance to win against OH Leuven's measly 15%. If we dig into the expected goals, Beveren's 1.93 outshines Leuven's 0.79, supporting the notion that the hosts are likely to dominate play. Despite Leuven's knack for squeezing out slightly better xPoints and xG per match, their miserable five-game losing streak can't be ignored.

    The most likely outcomes of 1-0 or 2-0 underscore a probable Beveren win. This is a side that operates with balance and physicality. As for Leuven, their direct approach and lack of defensive solidity mean they will likely struggle to penetrate Beveren's organized setup. Even though Beveren has vulnerabilities at the back, Leuven's recent form doesn't suggest they'll capitalize.

    With a 51% likelihood for over 2.5 goals, the market leans slightly toward more goals despite the low-scoring top scorelines. Both teams scoring is just under a coin flip at 47%, pointing to potential defensive discipline from Beveren, or possibly, continued offensive struggles for the visitors.

    An eye-catching angle is the value on Beveren with odds of 2.4 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, considering the model gives them a 64% chance of victory. This represents a substantial 55% edge, rendering it a potentially profitable play for those favoring a more conservative bet. In a match where the hosts are likely to control proceedings, siding with the home team at these odds looks like the sharp move.

    BeverenBeveren
    Form LWLL
    League ranking xG #17xGA #17xT #13xP/match #18Points #12
    Key players
    • Chris-Emmanuel Dikwama LokesaLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
    • Laurent JansRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.18
    • Christian BrülsCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.28
    OH LeuvenOH Leuven
    Form LLLLL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #18xT #6xP/match #17Points #17
    Key players
    • Birger VerstraeteCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
    • Oscar GilRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
    • Wouter GeorgeCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.29
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Beveren 64% · Draw 21% · OH Leuven 15%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - BeverenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,61fair 6,33-11 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - OH LeuvenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,97fair 36,71-78 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Beveren – OH Leuven

    Predicted score matrix

    OH Leuven →
    Beveren →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.8%
    0–14.9%
    0–22.1%
    0–30.5%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–012.3%
    1–110.3%
    1–24.0%
    1–31.1%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–012.2%
    2–19.7%
    2–23.9%
    2–31.0%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–07.9%
    3–16.3%
    3–22.5%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–05.9%
    4+–14.7%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-012%
    2. 2.2-012%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    1,93–0,79
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @2.26EV+10%
    Over 2,551%
    @1.61

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Beveren to win64%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.94

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Beveren to win64%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Lennart Mertens to score38%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Lennart Mertens to score38%
    • Birger Danny Verstraete to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Beveren64% probability@2.23PinnacleEV+44%reference odds
    • 1 · Beveren64% probability@2.20BetsafeEV+42%reference odds
    • 1 · Beveren64% probability@2.20BetssonEV+42%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BeverenX2 · OH Leuven
    Betfair Exchange1.101.101.10
    Betsafe
    EV+ 42%
    2.20    		3.453.10
    Betsson
    EV+ 42%
    2.20    		3.453.10
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 42%
    2.20    		3.453.10
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 44%
    2.23    		3.673.15

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Beveren win since 4 September — the odds have shortened from 2.44 to 2.23 (−9%).

    1-9 %
    43 %38 %

    2.44 → 2.23

    X0 %
    29 %24 %

    3.66 → 3.67

    2+17 %
    35 %30 %

    2.70 → 3.15

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Oud-Heverlee Leuven have lost 5 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Beveren
    OH Leuven
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Beveren (2–10)
    OH Leuven (2–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Beveren
    Yoni Gomis: 224 passningar, xT 0.19GomisChristophe Arnold Janssens: 214 passningar, xT 0.75JanssensBruno Godeau: 207 passningar, xT 0.14GodeauChristian Brüls: 192 passningar, xT 0.73BrülsLaurent Jans: 173 passningar, xT 0.65JansSieben Dewaele: 136 passningar, xT 0.15DewaeleJohannes Schenk: 121 passningar, xT 0.16SchenkChris-Emmanuel Dikwama Lokesa: 95 passningar, xT 0.15LokesaFerre Slegers: 84 passningar, xT 0.32SlegersCheick Oumar Conde: 66 passningar, xT 0.02CondeKurt Abrahams: 59 passningar, xT -0.03Abrahams
    OH Leuven
    Ewoud Pletinckx: 198 passningar, xT 0.51PletinckxNoë Georges Dussenne: 175 passningar, xT 0.33DussenneOscar Gil: 153 passningar, xT 0.45GilRoggerio Nyakossi: 134 passningar, xT 0.22NyakossiWouter George: 118 passningar, xT 1GeorgeDani Van Den Heuvel: 108 passningar, xT 0.11HeuvelBirger Verstraete: 103 passningar, xT 0.28VerstraeteSiebe Schrijvers: 96 passningar, xT 0.08SchrijversWilliam Balikwisha: 88 passningar, xT 0.42BalikwishaDavis Opoku: 80 passningar, xT 0.52OpokuJamie Lawrence: 73 passningar, xT 0.09Lawrence
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Beveren
    Yoni Gomis: 224 passningar, xT 0.19GomisChristophe Arnold Janssens: 214 passningar, xT 0.75JanssensBruno Godeau: 207 passningar, xT 0.14GodeauChristian Brüls: 192 passningar, xT 0.73BrülsLaurent Jans: 173 passningar, xT 0.65JansSieben Dewaele: 136 passningar, xT 0.15DewaeleJohannes Schenk: 121 passningar, xT 0.16SchenkChris-Emmanuel Dikwama Lokesa: 95 passningar, xT 0.15LokesaFerre Slegers: 84 passningar, xT 0.32SlegersCheick Oumar Conde: 66 passningar, xT 0.02CondeKurt Abrahams: 59 passningar, xT -0.03Abrahams
    OH Leuven
    Ewoud Pletinckx: 198 passningar, xT 0.51PletinckxNoë Georges Dussenne: 175 passningar, xT 0.33DussenneOscar Gil: 153 passningar, xT 0.45GilRoggerio Nyakossi: 134 passningar, xT 0.22NyakossiWouter George: 118 passningar, xT 1GeorgeDani Van Den Heuvel: 108 passningar, xT 0.11HeuvelBirger Verstraete: 103 passningar, xT 0.28VerstraeteSiebe Schrijvers: 96 passningar, xT 0.08SchrijversWilliam Balikwisha: 88 passningar, xT 0.42BalikwishaDavis Opoku: 80 passningar, xT 0.52OpokuJamie Lawrence: 73 passningar, xT 0.09Lawrence

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBeverenOH Leuven
    Points30
    xPoints2.22.6
    xG per match0.791.2
    xGA per match2.52.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.030.36
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.50.1
    Playing styleBeverenOH Leuven
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.420.49
    xT per match0.91.4
    xTA per match1.51.4
    Won balls, offensive half2634
    Pressing intensity0.260.25
    Pressing efficiency0.250.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.24
    Entries into the box per match1316
    Entries into the box against1917
    Pass completion %0.780.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.74
    Passes per match432390
    Passes against per match421382
    Switches of play per match31.333.3
    Long balls per match4242
    Set piecesBeverenOH Leuven
    xG from free kicks0.010.01
    Corners per match4.83.3
    Corners against per match5.38.8
    xG per corner0.040.04
    xGA per corner against0.040.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.62
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.6
    OtherBeverenOH Leuven
    Throw-in control0.780.72
    The goalkeepersJohannes Schenk (Beveren)Dani Van Den Heuvel (OH Leuven)
    Saves1913
    Save %66%59%
    xG prevented39%49%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Beveren
    Fixtures, form & tips
    OH Leuven
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Beveren vs OH Leuven according to our model?

    The model gives Beveren a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Beveren 64%, draw 21%, OH Leuven 15%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.