01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Standard Liège or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Belgian Pro LeagueStade Maurice Dufrasne, Liège18°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
Standard LiègePossession controlvs
Royal AntwerpCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: X (35%)Soft draw
Standard Liège – Royal Antwerp · Belgian Pro League
1 · Standard Liège 34%X 35%32% Royal Antwerp · 2
34%
35%
32%
Analysis: Standard Liège – Royal Antwerp
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Thirteen percent. That's the model's prediction for the most likely scoreline: a 1-1 draw between Standard Liège and Royal Antwerp. With both teams struggling to find consistent winning form, the numbers point to a tight contest where neither side has a clear upper hand. The model leans toward the draw at 35%, a conclusion supported by the head-to-head record, where the teams have been inseparable in their last six encounters.
For Liège, their 1.34 expected goals per game suggest they might edge out a goal, yet their defense allowing 1.8 xGA per match indicates vulnerability. On the other hand, Antwerp's counter-attacking style has served them well, with a marginally better xG of 1.8 and a tighter defense at 1.5 xGA. It's a classic clash of possession versus counter-attack, and neither team has been particularly dominant in recent outings.
A small sample size of six meetings since 2023 reveals an even split: two wins each and two draws. This balance highlights how closely matched these sides are, and while past results are instructive, current form and expected goals add nuance. Liège has a slight edge in points, but Antwerp's xPoints suggest they might be slightly unfortunate not to be ahead.
The model gives both teams to score a 52% chance in this matchup. Yet, the over 2.5 goals is less likely at 46%, indicating a match that could well end with the model's favored 1-1 draw.
If you're searching for value, it lies in the stalemate. The draw, offered at odds of 3.45 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, represents a significant 19% edge on the model's probability. It's not glamorous, but these well-reasoned wagers are the ones that settle the accounts.
Standard LiègeForm LDDWW
League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #9xP/match #13Points #5
Key players
- Dennis Yerai Eckert AyensaFxG 0.51 · xT -0.01
- Adnane AbidLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.26
- Casper NielsenRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.31
Royal AntwerpForm WWWDL
League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #6xP/match #7Points #9
Key players
- Michael FreyFxG 0.83 · xT -0.01
- Anthony ValenciaRWxG 0.55 · xT 0.45
- Thibo SomersRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.23
Match prediction: Standard Liège – Royal Antwerp
Predicted score matrix
Royal Antwerp →
Standard Liège →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.4%
0–19.1%
0–25.6%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.4%
1–113.1%
1–27.5%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.3%
2–18.5%
2–25.0%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.2%
3–13.8%
3–22.3%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,34–1,18
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@2.01EV+6%
Over 2,546%
@1.82
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Standard Liège or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Dennis Yerai Eckert Ayensa to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Dennis Yerai Eckert Ayensa to score28%
- Dennis Pierre Jacques Albert Praet to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw35% probability@3.52PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
- X · Draw35% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- X · Draw35% probability@3.45BetssonEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Standard Liège | X | 2 · Royal Antwerp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.15 | EV+ 19% 3.45 | 3.15 |
| Betsson | 2.15 | EV+ 19% 3.45 | 3.15 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | EV+ 19% 3.45 | 3.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | EV+ 22% 3.52 | EV+ 4% 3.29 |
Odds updated 3 Sept, 07:36
Odds movement
10 %
47 %42 %
2.15 → 2.14
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.53 → 3.52
2+1 %
31 %26 %
3.27 → 3.29
Over 2,50 %
55 %50 %
1.82 → 1.82
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesStandard Liège 2Draw 2Royal Antwerp 2
Goals: 8–6 (⌀ 2,3)
Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Standard Liège
Royal Antwerp
Standard Liège (9–6)
Royal Antwerp (10–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Standard Liège
Royal Antwerp
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Standard Liège
Royal Antwerp
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Standard Liège | Royal Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 7 |
| xPoints | 5 | 6 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.52 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Standard Liège | Royal Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 39 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 350 | 348 |
| Passes against per match | 335 | 323 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.7 | 20.6 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Standard Liège | Royal Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 6.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| Other | Standard Liège | Royal Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Matthieu Epolo (Standard Liège) | Taishi Brandon Nozawa (Royal Antwerp) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 10 |
| Save % | 57% | 53% |
| xG prevented | 33% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Standard Liège vs Royal Antwerp according to our model?
The model sees a draw as the most likely outcome: Standard Liège 34%, draw 35%, Royal Antwerp 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.