Zulte Waregem vs Royal Charleroi: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Belgian Pro League13 September 2026Regenboogstadion, Waregem18°3,1 mm16 km/h

Läs på svenska

Zulte WaregemPossession control

Royal CharleroiPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Royal Charleroi (39%)

1 · Zulte Waregem 34%X 28%39% Royal Charleroi · 2

34%

28%

39%

Analysis: Zulte Waregem – Royal Charleroi

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The unbeaten streak of Zulte Waregem is the standout number. Twelve matches without a loss is a formidable record, yet the underlying numbers point to a different reality. Charleroi not only edges their hosts in points and expected points but also boasts superior xG and xGA metrics. Despite Waregem's streak and head-to-head results, the model's lean towards Charleroi seems justified.

The expected goals suggest a close contest, with Zulte Waregem at 1.36 and Charleroi slightly ahead at 1.45. Such figures align with the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2. With both sides utilizing a possession control style, and the rain likely to suppress goal-scoring, we might witness a tactical battle rather than a high-scoring affair. However, the model still favors over 2.5 goals at 53%, indicating potential for action despite the weather.

Charleroi's chances appear undervalued in the markets, with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 2.6, representing a 1% edge on the model's 39% assessment. This slim advantage might appeal to value-seekers eyeing the visitors to break Waregem's streak. A narrow 1-2 victory for Charleroi is the call, aligning with both the model's probabilities and expected goals.

Zulte Waregem

Form WDWDW

League ranking xG #11xGA #6xT #14xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Anosike EmentaFxG 0.16 · xT 0.15
Serxho UjkaFxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Laurent LemoineCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.06

Royal Charleroi

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #4xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Aiham OusouCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
Aurélien ScheidlerFxG 0.51 · xT 0.09
Kévin Daniel Guitoun Van Den KerkhofRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.28

Match prediction: Zulte Waregem – Royal Charleroi

Predicted score matrix

Royal Charleroi →

Zulte Waregem →

0–06.4%

0–18.4%

0–26.4%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.5%

1–07.8%

1–112.2%

1–28.6%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.5%

2–18.0%

2–25.8%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.4%

3–02.5%

3–13.6%

3–22.6%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,36–1,45

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.04

Over 2,553%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Royal Charleroi or draw (X2)65%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Royal Charleroi or draw (X2)65%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Patrick Pflücke to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Anosike Victor Ementa to score24%
Amine Boukamir to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Royal Charleroi39% probability@2.67PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
2 · Royal Charleroi39% probability@2.60BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
2 · Royal Charleroi39% probability@2.60BetssonEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Zulte Waregem	X	2 · Royal Charleroi
Betsafe	2.55	3.45	EV+ 1% 2.60
Betsson	2.55	3.45	EV+ 1% 2.60
Nordicbet	2.55	3.45	EV+ 1% 2.60
Pinnacle	2.58	3.44	EV+ 4% 2.67

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39

Odds movement

1-5 %

38 %33 %

2.73 → 2.58

X-1 %

30 %25 %

3.48 → 3.44

2+7 %

39 %34 %

2.50 → 2.67

Over 2,5+4 %

57 %52 %

1.71 → 1.78

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Zulte Waregem 2Draw 0Royal Charleroi 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

Zulte Waregem are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Zulte Waregem

Royal Charleroi

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Zulte Waregem (10–3)

Royal Charleroi (11–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Zulte Waregem

Royal Charleroi

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Zulte Waregem

Royal Charleroi

The teams in numbers

Performance	Zulte Waregem	Royal Charleroi
Points	11	12
xPoints	8.1	9.1
xG per match	1.3	2
xGA per match	1	0.86
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.28

Playing style	Zulte Waregem	Royal Charleroi
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.33
Field tilt	0.43	0.57
xT per match	0.9	1.6
xTA per match	1.1	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	30	33
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.31
Entries into the box per match	13	16
Entries into the box against	11	11
Pass completion %	0.71	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.72
Passes per match	279	423
Passes against per match	449	308
Switches of play per match	18.9	34.5
Long balls per match	27	41

Set pieces	Zulte Waregem	Royal Charleroi
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.12
Corners per match	4.7	6.2
Corners against per match	5.3	3.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.56

Other	Zulte Waregem	Royal Charleroi
Throw-in control	0.69	0.67

The goalkeepers	Louis Bostyn (Zulte Waregem)	Mohamed Koné (Royal Charleroi)
Saves	16	11
Save %	84%	73%
xG prevented	63%	68%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Zulte Waregem

Fixtures, form & tips

Royal Charleroi

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Zulte Waregem vs Royal Charleroi according to our model?

The model gives Royal Charleroi a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zulte Waregem 34%, draw 28%, Royal Charleroi 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.