Croatian HNL26°19 km/h

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    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo ZagrebPossession & high press
    1–0
    GoricaGoricaPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Dinamo Zagreb (74%)Best value by the model: 2 · Gorica @ 16.47 (+60 %)

    Dinamo Zagreb – Gorica · Croatian HNL

    1 · Dinamo Zagreb 74%X 16%10% Gorica · 2

    Analysis: Dinamo Zagreb – Gorica

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Gazing at Dinamo Zagreb's staggering unbeaten streak of 27 league matches, the hosts appear primed to extend their dominance against Gorica. With a hefty 74% win probability on their side, Zagreb's high-press possession style should dictate the pace, aiming to suffocate the visitors who prefer a more measured, possession-controlled approach. The model's expected goals lean heavily in Zagreb's favor: 2.42 to Gorica's 0.72, painting a picture of control and an anticipated defensive shutout.

    Despite Gorica's possession control, their solitary point from the current season suggests they may struggle to breach Zagreb's solid defense, as reflected in Dinamo's expected goals against (xGA) of just 0.46 per match. Historical head-to-head data, albeit covering a modest 12-game sample, underscores Zagreb's edge with 7 victories. Yet, Gorica has managed to snatch unexpected wins before, a caution against complacency.

    With most likely scorelines pointing towards a 2-0 or 1-0 victory for the hosts, the tilt is undeniably towards a controlled, rather than explosive, outcome. Although the probability for over 2.5 goals sits at 61%, the betting value interestingly emerges on the under. Offered at 2.92 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the under 2.5 bet offers a 15% edge according to the model, indicating a contrarian yet value-laden angle that appreciates the potential for a disciplined Zagreb performance.

    In sum, a measured 2-0 victory seems the most tenable conclusion, with Dinamo Zagreb likely to keep a clean sheet while maintaining their grip on the Croatian HNL. Those with an eye for value may find the under 2.5 goals bet a compelling proposition, despite conventional expectations.

    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
    Form DWWWD
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #3
    Key players
    • Dion Drena BeljoFxG 1.23 · xT 0.14
    • Luka StojkovićRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.34
    • Paul Bismarck TabinasRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.23
    GoricaGorica
    Form LLLLD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #6xP/match #7Points #10
    Key players
    • Jakov PranjićFxG 0.05 · xT 0.00
    • Kevin ČustovićRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.24
    • Jakov FilipovićCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Dinamo Zagreb 74% · Draw 16% · Gorica 10%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Dinamo ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,22fair 4,67-31 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - HNK GoricaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 36,97fair 54,08-32 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Dinamo Zagreb – Gorica

    Predicted score matrix

    Gorica →
    Dinamo Zagreb →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.6%
    0–12.9%
    0–21.1%
    0–30.3%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–010.3%
    1–17.7%
    1–22.7%
    1–30.6%
    1–4+0.1%
    2
    2–012.7%
    2–19.1%
    2–23.3%
    2–30.8%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–010.3%
    3–17.4%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–011.0%
    4+–17.9%
    4+–22.8%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-013%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.3-010%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.1-18%
    Expected goals
    2,42–0,72
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,539%
    @2.92EV+15%
    Over 2,561%
    @1.36

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Dinamo Zagreb to win74%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    65%

    Fair odds

    1.55

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Dinamo Zagreb to win74%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Dion Drena Beljo to score52%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Dion Drena Beljo to score52%
    • Stefan Perić to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Gorica10% probability@16.47PinnacleEV+60%reference odds
    • X · Draw16% probability@8.69PinnacleEV+39%reference odds
    • Under 2.539% probability@2.92BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Dinamo ZagrebX2 · Gorica
    Betsafe1.17
    EV+ 9%
    6.80
    EV+ 11%
    11.50
    Betsson1.17
    EV+ 9%
    6.80
    EV+ 11%
    11.50
    Nordicbet1.17
    EV+ 9%
    6.80
    EV+ 11%
    11.50
    Pinnacle1.13
    EV+ 39%
    8.69
    EV+ 60%
    16.47

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:31

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Dinamo Zagreb win since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 1.17 to 1.13 (−3%).

    1-3 %
    84 %79 %

    1.17 → 1.13

    X+23 %
    14 %9 %

    7.06 → 8.69

    2+39 %
    9 %4 %

    11.82 → 16.47

    Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    12 matches
    Dinamo Zagreb 7Draw 2Gorica 3
    Goals: 21–12 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • GNK Dinamo Zagreb dominate this fixture historically: 7 wins to 3 in 12 meetings.
    • GNK Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in their last 27 league matches.
    • GNK Dinamo Zagreb win 75% of their home matches all-time (57 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Gorica
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Dinamo Zagreb (11–3)
    Gorica (2–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Stjepan Radeljić: 314 passningar, xT 0.91RadeljićNiko Galešić: 229 passningar, xT 0.39GalešićJosip Mišić: 208 passningar, xT 0.6MišićPaul Bismarck Tabinas: 112 passningar, xT 0.41TabinasOlof Matteo Perez Vinlöf: 110 passningar, xT 0.75VinlöfLukas Kacavenda: 102 passningar, xT 0.25KacavendaSergi Domínguez Viloria: 93 passningar, xT 0.14ViloriaIvan Nevistić: 87 passningar, xT 0.06NevistićMoris Valinčić: 87 passningar, xT 0.45ValinčićArbër Hoxha: 72 passningar, xT 0.22HoxhaLuka Stojković: 71 passningar, xT 0.55Stojković
    Gorica
    Stefan Perić: 222 passningar, xT 0.26PerićIvan Cvijanović: 192 passningar, xT 0.68CvijanovićJakov Filipović: 158 passningar, xT 0.1FilipovićFilip Braut: 130 passningar, xT 0.39BrautDomagoj Pavičić: 115 passningar, xT 0.43PavičićAnte Kavelj: 111 passningar, xT 0.37KaveljDavor Matijaš: 105 passningar, xT 0.08MatijašJuraj Frigan: 64 passningar, xT -0.03FriganBruno Bogojević: 58 passningar, xT 0.51BogojevićKevin Čustović: 53 passningar, xT 0.46ČustovićJakov Pranjić: 45 passningar, xT 0Pranjić
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Stjepan Radeljić: 314 passningar, xT 0.91RadeljićNiko Galešić: 229 passningar, xT 0.39GalešićJosip Mišić: 208 passningar, xT 0.6MišićPaul Bismarck Tabinas: 112 passningar, xT 0.41TabinasOlof Matteo Perez Vinlöf: 110 passningar, xT 0.75VinlöfLukas Kacavenda: 102 passningar, xT 0.25KacavendaSergi Domínguez Viloria: 93 passningar, xT 0.14ViloriaIvan Nevistić: 87 passningar, xT 0.06NevistićMoris Valinčić: 87 passningar, xT 0.45ValinčićArbër Hoxha: 72 passningar, xT 0.22HoxhaLuka Stojković: 71 passningar, xT 0.55Stojković
    Gorica
    Stefan Perić: 222 passningar, xT 0.26PerićIvan Cvijanović: 192 passningar, xT 0.68CvijanovićJakov Filipović: 158 passningar, xT 0.1FilipovićFilip Braut: 130 passningar, xT 0.39BrautDomagoj Pavičić: 115 passningar, xT 0.43PavičićAnte Kavelj: 111 passningar, xT 0.37KaveljDavor Matijaš: 105 passningar, xT 0.08MatijašJuraj Frigan: 64 passningar, xT -0.03FriganBruno Bogojević: 58 passningar, xT 0.51BogojevićKevin Čustović: 53 passningar, xT 0.46ČustovićJakov Pranjić: 45 passningar, xT 0Pranjić

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDinamo ZagrebGorica
    Points101
    xPoints95.5
    xG per match2.70.91
    xGA per match0.461.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.340.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.090.28
    Playing styleDinamo ZagrebGorica
    Build-up efficiency0.320.28
    Field tilt0.810.35
    xT per match1.90.84
    xTA per match0.471.2
    Won balls, offensive half3227
    Pressing intensity0.20.23
    Pressing efficiency0.370.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.330.29
    Entries into the box per match2110
    Entries into the box against413
    Pass completion %0.80.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.64
    Passes per match487292
    Passes against per match238369
    Switches of play per match3722.3
    Long balls per match3131
    Set piecesDinamo ZagrebGorica
    xG from free kicks0.070.04
    Corners per match8.83
    Corners against per match2.56.8
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.80.53
    OtherDinamo ZagrebGorica
    Throw-in control0.660.67
    The goalkeepersIvan Nevistić (Dinamo Zagreb)Davor Matijaš (Gorica)
    Saves312
    Save %50%60%
    xG prevented52%43%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Gorica
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Dinamo Zagreb vs Gorica according to our model?

    The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 74% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dinamo Zagreb 74%, draw 16%, Gorica 10%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.