01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hajduk Split to win65%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Croatian HNL30°11 km/h
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Hajduk SplitPossession & high press2–0
Lokomotiva ZagrebLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Hajduk Split (65%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.22 (+5 %)
Hajduk Split – Lokomotiva Zagreb · Croatian HNL
1 · Hajduk Split 65%X 22%14% Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2
65%
22%
14%
Analysis: Hajduk Split – Lokomotiva Zagreb
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The text incorrectly conflates two different statistics: it labels the "four wins to Lokomotiva's single victory" as the head-to-head record "since 2023," but that 4-1 figure actually corresponds to the separate all-time historical meetings stat. The actual head-to-head since 2023 (8 matches) is 4 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss for Hajduk Split.
Corrected text:
Hajduk Split's probability of 65% to win sets the stage for their encounter against Lokomotiva Zagreb, who come in as clear underdogs at just 14%. The home side not only holds the edge in form but also in expected goals, boasting a 1.92 xG compared to the visitors' 0.87. Such figures suggest a controlled performance dominated by Hajduk's possession-heavy style, likely dictating the game's tempo against Lokomotiva's defensive setup.
Historically, Hajduk have dominated this fixture with 4 wins to 1 in 8 meetings. In the head-to-head since 2023 (8 matches), Hajduk have gone 4W-3D-1L, underlining their consistent edge in this matchup. With most likely scorelines pointing to a 1-0 or 2-0 home win, a low-scoring affair aligns with the underlying stats. The visitors' direct approach could struggle against a high-press system that has limited opponents to an average of 0.84 xGA per game.
The sharpest angle lies in the value on under 2.5 goals, priced at 2.22 by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With the model rating the chance of under 2.5 goals at 47%, this offers a 5% edge that's hard to ignore. Expect Hajduk to capitalize on their advantages, likely securing a 1-0 victory in a match where goals might come at a premium.
Hajduk SplitForm WLDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #2xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Marko LivajaFxG 0.76 · xT 0.33
- Rokas PukštasCDMxG 0.34 · xT 0.24
- Adrion PajazitiCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
Lokomotiva ZagrebForm DWWLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #10xP/match #7Points #6
Key players
- Marko PajačLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.35
- Mirko MarićFxG 0.62 · xT -0.01
- Dušan VukovićFxG 0.10 · xT 0.03
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Hajduk Split 65% · Draw 22% · Lokomotiva Zagreb 14%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - NK Lokomotiva ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 21,45fair 29,71-28 %
MissMatchresultat - Hajduk SplitBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,11fair 6,11-33 %
MissMatch prediction: Hajduk Split – Lokomotiva Zagreb
Predicted score matrix
Lokomotiva Zagreb →
Hajduk Split →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–15.0%
0–22.3%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–011.5%
1–110.5%
1–24.4%
1–31.3%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–011.4%
2–19.8%
2–24.3%
2–31.2%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–07.3%
3–16.3%
3–22.7%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–05.4%
4+–14.7%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-012%
- 2.2-011%
- 3.1-111%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,92–0,87
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.22EV+5%
Over 2,553%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hajduk Split to win65%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Rokas Pukštas to score42%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Rokas Pukštas to score42%
- Tino Jukic to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.547% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.22BetssonEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hajduk Split | X | 2 · Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.42 | 4.30 | 6.20 |
| Betsson | 1.42 | 4.30 | 6.20 |
| Nordicbet | 1.42 | 4.30 | 6.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | EV+ 3% 4.78 | 7.10 |
Odds updated 31 Aug, 10:26
Odds movement
10 %
69 %64 %
1.40 → 1.41
X+4 %
22 %17 %
4.58 → 4.78
2+5 %
16 %11 %
6.74 → 7.10
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesHajduk Split 4Draw 3Lokomotiva Zagreb 1
Goals: 14–9 (⌀ 2,9)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Key facts
- Hajduk Split dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
- Hajduk Split win 66% of their home matches all-time (38 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hajduk Split
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Hajduk Split (9–5)
Lokomotiva Zagreb (7–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hajduk Split
Lokomotiva Zagreb
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hajduk Split
Lokomotiva Zagreb
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hajduk Split | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 6 |
| xPoints | 5.9 | 4.5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 0.99 |
| xGA per match | 0.84 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| Playing style | Hajduk Split | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.59 |
| xTA per match | 0.63 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 407 | 250 |
| Passes against per match | 271 | 382 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.1 | 23.4 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Hajduk Split | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 2.7 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.91 | 0.55 |
| Other | Hajduk Split | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| The goalkeepers | Toni Silić (Hajduk Split) | Josip Posavec (Lokomotiva Zagreb) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 14 |
| Save % | 55% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 14% | 24% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb according to our model?
The model gives Hajduk Split a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hajduk Split 65%, draw 22%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.