01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hajduk Split to win80%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Croatian HNL23°19 km/h
Läs på svenska
Hajduk SplitPossession & high pressvs
Slaven BelupoLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Hajduk Split (80%)
Hajduk Split – Slaven Belupo · Croatian HNL
1 · Hajduk Split 80%X 14%6% Slaven Belupo · 2
80%
14%
Analysis: Hajduk Split – Slaven Belupo
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Five wins and three draws in their last eight meetings since 2023 give Hajduk Split a commanding grip over Slaven Belupo, a pattern that reflects the current balance of power rather than a mere historical footnote. The hosts have been in imperious form, riding a four-match winning streak and showcasing an ability to find the net consistently — scoring in eight consecutive league matches. It's not just results; their underlying numbers are equally compelling, with an xG of 1.9 per match and a stingy xGA of 0.67.
The visitors, on the other hand, arrive with modest credentials. A mere six points in the league and an xPoints tally of 5.5 underline their struggles. Slaven Belupo’s playing style, characterized by low defense and direct play, contrasts sharply with Hajduk’s possession-heavy, high-press approach. This tactical mismatch is likely to be exploited by the home side, who dominate possession and create high-quality chances.
Hajduk Split's dominance at home is another crucial factor, winning a remarkable 67% of their matches in front of their own fans historically. They are expected to control this encounter, and the model's probabilities strongly favor a home win at 80%, with the most probable scorelines being 2-0 and 3-0. Given Slaven Belupo's defensive vulnerabilities, as evidenced by their xGA of 2.1 per match, Hajduk should find opportunities to extend their scoring streak further.
For those seeking value, the 1.3 odds for a home win with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 4% edge according to the model's assessment. While the over 2.5 goals market leans heavily towards "over" at 67%, the sharpest angle remains backing Hajduk Split to maintain their formidable form and secure the win, making those 1.3 odds an attractive proposition.
Hajduk SplitForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #2xP/match #3Points #1
Key players
- Marko LivajaFxG 0.78 · xT 0.31
- Dalisson de Almeida LeiteFxG 0.35 · xT 0.10
- Anđelo ŠutaloRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.22
Slaven BelupoForm LLWLW
League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #7xP/match #9Points #8
Key players
- Josip MitrovićFxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
- Ljuban CrepuljaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
- Alen GrgićRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.23
Match prediction: Hajduk Split – Slaven Belupo
Predicted score matrix
Slaven Belupo →
Hajduk Split →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.3%
0–11.8%
0–20.6%
0–30.1%
0–4+0.0%
1
1–08.9%
1–15.6%
1–21.7%
1–30.3%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–012.9%
2–17.8%
2–22.3%
2–30.5%
2–4+0.1%
3
3–012.2%
3–17.4%
3–22.2%
3–30.4%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–017.4%
4+–110.5%
4+–23.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-013%
- 2.3-012%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.4-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
2,84–0,60
Both teams to score
43%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
219%
322%
419%
5+26%
Under 2,533%
@2.58
Over 2,567%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hajduk Split to win80%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Michele Šego to score52%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score43%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Michele Šego to score52%
- Ivan Cvetko to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Hajduk Split80% probability@1.31BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Hajduk Split80% probability@1.31BetssonEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Hajduk Split80% probability@1.31NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hajduk Split | X | 2 · Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 1.31 | 5.15 | 7.40 |
| Betsson | EV+ 5% 1.31 | 5.15 | 7.40 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 1.31 | 5.15 | 7.40 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 1.30 | 5.59 | 7.68 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 06:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Slaven Belupo win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 8.65 to 7.68 (−11%).
1+3 %
74 %69 %
1.25 → 1.30
X-3 %
19 %14 %
5.78 → 5.59
2-11 %
14 %9 %
8.65 → 7.68
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesHajduk Split 5Draw 3Slaven Belupo 0
Goals: 12–3 (⌀ 1,9)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Key facts
- Hajduk Split dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 8 meetings.
- Hajduk Split come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Hajduk Split have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- Hajduk Split win 67% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hajduk Split
Slaven Belupo
Hajduk Split (15–5)
Slaven Belupo (5–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hajduk Split
Slaven Belupo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hajduk Split
Slaven Belupo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hajduk Split | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 6 |
| xPoints | 10.9 | 5.5 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 0.84 |
| xGA per match | 0.67 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.06 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.08 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Hajduk Split | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.72 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.78 |
| xTA per match | 0.56 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 7 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 428 | 260 |
| Passes against per match | 249 | 397 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.8 | 17.2 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Hajduk Split | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 2.3 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.79 | 0.55 |
| Other | Hajduk Split | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Toni Silić (Hajduk Split) | Karlo Sentić (Slaven Belupo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 20 |
| Save % | 62% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 21% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo according to our model?
The model gives Hajduk Split a 80% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hajduk Split 80%, draw 14%, Slaven Belupo 6%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.