Gorica vs Rijeka: Prediction & Odds (31 Aug 2026)

Croatian HNL31 August 202625°16 km/h

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GoricaPossession control

0–0

RijekaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Rijeka (58%)Best value by the model: 1 · Gorica @ 5.84 (+3 %)

1 · Gorica 18%X 24%58% Rijeka · 2

18%

24%

58%

Analysis: Gorica – Rijeka

Oscar Nilsson · 31 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The looming clash between Gorica and Rijeka seems poised to reflect a classic script: the visitors' dominance. With the model giving Rijeka a towering 58% chance to win, it hints at a likely continuation of Gorica's struggles. The hosts are on a painful five-game losing streak, and when you juxtapose this with Rijeka's commanding historical head-to-head record—10 wins in their last 12 encounters—it's hard to see the tide turning.

In terms of playing style, Gorica's possession-based approach might find it hard to break through Rijeka's high press and possession game, which has consistently outperformed Gorica both on points and expected goals metrics this season. With an expected goals tally showing Rijeka at 1.59 compared to Gorica's 0.87, the visitors seem well-placed to control the game's tempo and possibly eke out a clean sheet.

The low-scoring nature of this fixture is further underlined by the model's prediction of a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. The most likely scorelines—0-1 (13%) and 0-2 (11%)—suggest a tight affair where Gorica's weaknesses at both ends of the pitch might be exposed without the firepower to respond.

Herein lies a sharp betting angle: the under 2.5 goals market appears to offer value. With odds of 1.82 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and the model rating it as a 55% probability (a 1% edge), the numbers suggest a low-scoring Rijeka victory is on the cards. This could be the standout play for those looking to capitalize on the market's current pricing.

Gorica

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #6xP/match #8Points #10

Key players

Jakov PranjićLWBxG 0.08 · xT -0.04
Bruno BogojevićLWxG 0.42 · xT 0.14
Ivan CvijanovićCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20

Rijeka

Form DWWLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #3xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Niko JankovićLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
Justas LasickasRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.24
Ante MajstorovićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Gorica 18% · Draw 24% · Rijeka 58%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - HNK GoricaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 19,24fair 27,98-31 %

Miss

Matchresultat - HNK RijekaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,83fair 8,64-33 %

Miss

Match prediction: Gorica – Rijeka

Predicted score matrix

Rijeka →

Gorica →

0–08.9%

0–113.2%

0–210.8%

0–35.7%

0–4+3.2%

1–07.1%

1–112.2%

1–29.4%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.8%

2–03.2%

2–15.2%

2–24.1%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.2%

3–00.9%

3–11.5%

3–21.2%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-113%
2.1-112%
3.0-211%
4.1-29%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

0,87–1,59

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,555%

@1.85EV+3%

Over 2,545%

@1.96

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rijeka to win58%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rijeka to win58%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Toni Fruk to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Toni Fruk to score30%
Ante Majstorović to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Gorica18% probability@5.84PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
Under 2.555% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gorica	X	2 · Rijeka
Betsafe	5.10	3.55	1.62
Betsson	5.10	3.55	1.62
Nordicbet	5.10	3.55	1.62
Pinnacle	EV+ 3% 5.84	3.56	1.65

Odds updated 31 Aug, 08:35

Odds movement

1-4 %

18 %13 %

6.07 → 5.84

X-5 %

28 %23 %

3.74 → 3.56

2+6 %

61 %56 %

1.55 → 1.65

Over 2,5+4 %

52 %47 %

1.89 → 1.96

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

12 matches

Gorica 1Draw 1Rijeka 10

Goals: 8–19 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

Key facts

HNK Rijeka dominate this fixture historically: 10 wins to 1 in 12 meetings.
HNK Gorica have lost 5 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gorica

Rijeka

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gorica (2–9)

Rijeka (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gorica

Rijeka

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gorica

Rijeka

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gorica	Rijeka
Points	0	6
xPoints	4.4	5.5
xG per match	1.1	2
xGA per match	1.8	0.84
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.09

Playing style	Gorica	Rijeka
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.43	0.83
xT per match	0.97	1.3
xTA per match	1.3	0.77
Won balls, offensive half	30	32
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.33
Entries into the box per match	13	19
Entries into the box against	13	6
Pass completion %	0.73	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.76
Passes per match	318	524
Passes against per match	331	285
Switches of play per match	25.6	36.6
Long balls per match	34	36

Set pieces	Gorica	Rijeka
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.02
Corners per match	3.3	7.4
Corners against per match	6.5	2.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.57

Other	Gorica	Rijeka
Throw-in control	0.74	0.7

The goalkeepers	Davor Matijaš (Gorica)	Aleksa Todorović (Rijeka)
Saves	12	6
Save %	60%	55%
xG prevented	43%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gorica

Fixtures, form & tips

Rijeka

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gorica vs Rijeka according to our model?

The model gives Rijeka a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gorica 18%, draw 24%, Rijeka 58%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.