Croatian HNL24°14,1 mm13 km/h

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    RijekaRijeka
    vs
    Istra 1961Istra 1961
    The model's lean: 1 · Rijeka (71%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.18 (+5 %)

    Rijeka – Istra 1961 · Croatian HNL

    1 · Rijeka 71%X 19%10% Istra 1961 · 2

    Match prediction: Rijeka – Istra 1961

    Predicted score matrix

    Istra 1961 →
    Rijeka →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–14.0%
    0–21.4%
    0–30.3%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–013.1%
    1–19.1%
    1–22.9%
    1–30.6%
    1–4+0.1%
    2
    2–014.0%
    2–19.2%
    2–23.0%
    2–30.7%
    2–4+0.1%
    3
    3–09.7%
    3–16.4%
    3–22.1%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–08.2%
    4+–15.4%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-014%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.3-010%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.1-19%
    Expected goals
    2,09–0,66
    Both teams to score
    43%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,548%
    @2.18EV+5%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.62

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Rijeka to win71%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.75

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Rijeka to win71%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.31

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score43%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.98

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.548% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+5%
    • Under 2.548% probability@2.18BetssonEV+5%
    • Under 2.548% probability@2.18NordicbetEV+5%
    Bookmaker1 · RijekaX2 · Istra 1961
    Betsafe1.404.406.60
    Betsson1.404.406.60
    Nordicbet1.404.406.60

    Odds updated 17 Aug, 18:36

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rijeka vs Istra 1961 according to our model?

    The model gives Rijeka a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rijeka 71%, draw 19%, Istra 1961 10%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.