Croatian HNL27°16 km/h

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    RijekaRijekaPossession & high press
    4–1
    OsijekOsijekPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Rijeka (58%)

    Rijeka – Osijek · Croatian HNL

    1 · Rijeka 58%X 28%15% Osijek · 2

    Analysis: Rijeka – Osijek

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Rijeka's high-pressing style will be key against Osijek's possession control when the two sides clash. The odds suggest there's significant value in backing the hosts. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer Rijeka at 1.8, while the model gives them a 58% chance of winning, indicating a 4% edge in value.

    Osijek may hold an edge in points and expected goals per match this season, but don't let that fool you. Rijeka's defense has been formidable, with an expected goals against of just 0.68 per game. This defensive solidity is a crucial factor that tilts the balance in their favor.

    The head-to-head record since 2023 is evenly split with each team winning three times and drawing twice in a small sample of eight matches. While past encounters show no clear dominance, the home advantage and this match's expected goals (1.71 for Rijeka vs 0.83 for Osijek) suggest Rijeka hold the upper hand at home. Historically, they've won 64% of their matches at their own ground, a statistic that can't be ignored when you're weighing the probabilities.

    The model's most likely scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 suggest a tight affair, with a combined 25% chance of these outcomes. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at just 46%, and both teams to score is also at 46%. This leans towards a low-scoring game where Rijeka's defense should keep Osijek's attack at bay.

    With the odds and defensive numbers in their favor, Rijeka looks a solid bet. There's tangible value in backing the home win at 1.8, given the percentages. While nothing is guaranteed, the numbers tip the scale towards a narrow victory for the hosts, most likely in a 1-0 or 2-0 fashion.

    RijekaRijeka
    Form WWLWD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #3xP/match #3Points #5
    Key players
    • Niko JankovićLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.08
    • Justas LasickasRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
    • Ante MajstorovićCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
    OsijekOsijek
    Form WWWLW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #4xP/match #2Points #1
    Key players
    • Nail OmerovićLWxG 0.65 · xT 0.19
    • Domagoj BukvićRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.12
    • Armando Leon ResendezFxG 0.29 · xT 0.07
    Final score
    4 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Rijeka 58% · Draw 28% · Osijek 15%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - HNK RijekaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,80fair 7,76-25 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - OsijekBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,28fair 32,36-59 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Rijeka – Osijek

    Predicted score matrix

    Osijek →
    Rijeka →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.3%
    0–16.2%
    0–22.7%
    0–30.7%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–013.2%
    1–111.5%
    1–24.6%
    1–31.3%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–011.6%
    2–19.6%
    2–23.9%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–06.6%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.2%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–04.1%
    4+–13.4%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-013%
    2. 2.2-012%
    3. 3.1-112%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,71–0,83
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.88EV+1%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.93

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Rijeka to win58%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    41%

    Fair odds

    2.44

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Rijeka to win58%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Toni Fruk to score34%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Toni Fruk to score34%
    • Oleksandr Petrusenko to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Rijeka58% probability@1.84PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
    • 1 · Rijeka58% probability@1.80BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · Rijeka58% probability@1.80BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · RijekaX2 · Osijek
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    1.80    		3.304.30
    Betsson
    EV+ 4%
    1.80    		3.304.30
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    1.80    		3.304.30
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 6%
    1.84    		3.214.95

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:31

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    55 %50 %

    1.79 → 1.84

    X+4 %
    32 %27 %

    3.10 → 3.21

    2-4 %
    21 %16 %

    5.17 → 4.95

    Over 2,5+6 %
    54 %49 %

    1.82 → 1.93

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    Rijeka 3Draw 2Osijek 3
    Goals: 9–8 (⌀ 2,1)

    Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • HNK Rijeka win 64% of their home matches all-time (56 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rijeka
    Osijek
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Rijeka (5–5)
    Osijek (12–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rijeka
    Ante Majstorović: 302 passningar, xT 0.5MajstorovićTiago Filipe Oliveira Dantas: 230 passningar, xT 0.53DantasBranko Pavić: 177 passningar, xT 0.31PavićAlfonso Daniel Barco del Solar: 171 passningar, xT 0.24SolarJustas Lasickas: 154 passningar, xT 0.44LasickasAnel Husic: 142 passningar, xT 0.08HusicAnte Orec: 140 passningar, xT 0.4OrecNiko Janković: 134 passningar, xT 0.21JankovićMladen Devetak: 119 passningar, xT 0.33DevetakToni Fruk: 117 passningar, xT 0.59FrukIvan Ćubelić: 93 passningar, xT 0.01Ćubelić
    Osijek
    Ivano Kolarik: 267 passningar, xT 0.3KolarikLuka Jelenić: 254 passningar, xT 0.14JelenićLuka Vrbančić: 232 passningar, xT 0.4VrbančićRoko Jurišić: 207 passningar, xT 1JurišićNail Omerović: 134 passningar, xT 0.67OmerovićSenad Mustafić: 123 passningar, xT 0.12MustafićMarko Malenica: 122 passningar, xT 0.06MalenicaDomagoj Bukvić: 103 passningar, xT 0.46BukvićŠimun Mikolčić: 73 passningar, xT 0.2MikolčićMarcel Heister: 57 passningar, xT 0.23HeisterJona Ježić: 54 passningar, xT -0.06Ježić
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rijeka
    Ante Majstorović: 302 passningar, xT 0.5MajstorovićTiago Filipe Oliveira Dantas: 230 passningar, xT 0.53DantasBranko Pavić: 177 passningar, xT 0.31PavićAlfonso Daniel Barco del Solar: 171 passningar, xT 0.24SolarJustas Lasickas: 154 passningar, xT 0.44LasickasAnel Husic: 142 passningar, xT 0.08HusicAnte Orec: 140 passningar, xT 0.4OrecNiko Janković: 134 passningar, xT 0.21JankovićMladen Devetak: 119 passningar, xT 0.33DevetakToni Fruk: 117 passningar, xT 0.59FrukIvan Ćubelić: 93 passningar, xT 0.01Ćubelić
    Osijek
    Ivano Kolarik: 267 passningar, xT 0.3KolarikLuka Jelenić: 254 passningar, xT 0.14JelenićLuka Vrbančić: 232 passningar, xT 0.4VrbančićRoko Jurišić: 207 passningar, xT 1JurišićNail Omerović: 134 passningar, xT 0.67OmerovićSenad Mustafić: 123 passningar, xT 0.12MustafićMarko Malenica: 122 passningar, xT 0.06MalenicaDomagoj Bukvić: 103 passningar, xT 0.46BukvićŠimun Mikolčić: 73 passningar, xT 0.2MikolčićMarcel Heister: 57 passningar, xT 0.23HeisterJona Ježić: 54 passningar, xT -0.06Ježić

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRijekaOsijek
    Points712
    xPoints6.98.7
    xG per match1.72
    xGA per match0.681
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.37
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.110.16
    Playing styleRijekaOsijek
    Build-up efficiency0.310.29
    Field tilt0.840.58
    xT per match1.21.2
    xTA per match0.660.68
    Won balls, offensive half2923
    Pressing intensity0.210.21
    Pressing efficiency0.370.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.360.23
    Entries into the box per match1813
    Entries into the box against58
    Pass completion %0.810.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.71
    Passes per match523373
    Passes against per match261265
    Switches of play per match3833
    Long balls per match3834
    Set piecesRijekaOsijek
    xG from free kicks0.030.02
    Corners per match7.55.4
    Corners against per match2.32.6
    xG per corner0.010.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.54
    OtherRijekaOsijek
    Throw-in control0.670.76
    The goalkeepersAleksa Todorović (Rijeka)Marko Malenica (Osijek)
    Saves69
    Save %55%64%
    xG prevented43%62%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Rijeka
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Osijek
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rijeka vs Osijek according to our model?

    The model gives Rijeka a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rijeka 58%, draw 28%, Osijek 15%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.