Croatian HNL21°5,8 mm13 km/h

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    Istra 1961Istra 1961Low block & direct
    vs
    GoricaGoricaLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Istra 1961 (50%)

    Istra 1961 – Gorica · Croatian HNL

    1 · Istra 1961 50%X 28%21% Gorica · 2

    Analysis: Istra 1961 – Gorica

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Gorica have historically dominated this fixture, winning five of the last eight encounters since 2023. However, the tides seem to be turning in favor of the hosts this time. Istra 1961 not only lead the current points tally with six to Gorica's single point but also hold an edge in xPoints, registering 7.9 against Gorica's 6.1. While the head-to-head record is significant, the sample of eight games remains limited and less indicative than the current form and underlying metrics.

    The numbers suggest Istra 1961 are the stronger side this season. With an expected goals tally of 1.81 compared to Gorica's 1.12, they are likely to pose a bigger threat going forward. Both teams profile as having low defensive setups while favoring direct play, which might open the game to goals. This is supported by a 56% chance of seeing more than 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood of both teams scoring.

    A tight contest seems likely, but Istra's superior xG and xGA metrics make them favorites to edge out a win. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw (11%), with a 2-1 victory for Istra 1961 also well within reach (10%). Given the probabilities, a 1-0 outcome (9%) for the hosts should not be dismissed, especially as it aligns with their defensive profile.

    In betting terms, the model sees value in backing Istra 1961 at odds of 2.00 or better. With a 50% win probability, anything above even odds on the hosts represents an opportunity worth considering. While the over 2.5 goal market is slightly favored, the true value lies in trusting Istra's form and metrics to deliver a narrow victory at home.

    Istra 1961Istra 1961
    Form DWLDD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #5xP/match #6Points #6
    Key players
    • Hamza JaganjacFxG 0.32 · xT 0.01
    • Emil FrederiksenRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.13
    • Raul KumarCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
    GoricaGorica
    Form LLLDL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #8xP/match #8Points #10
    Key players
    • Stefan PerićCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    • Bruno BogojevićLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.12
    • Kevin ČustovićRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.24

    Match prediction: Istra 1961 – Gorica

    Predicted score matrix

    Gorica →
    Istra 1961 →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.7%
    0–15.6%
    0–23.3%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–09.4%
    1–111.1%
    1–26.0%
    1–32.2%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–08.8%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–05.3%
    3–15.9%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–03.6%
    4+–14.1%
    4+–22.3%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.1-26%
    Expected goals
    1,81–1,12
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    –
    Over 2,556%
    –

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Istra 1961 to win50%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.28

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Istra 1961 to win50%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Emil Frederiksen to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Emil Frederiksen to score29%
    • Stefan Perić to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    Istra 1961 2Draw 1Gorica 5
    Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • HNK Gorica dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Istra 1961
    Gorica
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Istra 1961 (11–10)
    Gorica (2–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Istra 1961
    Niko Šepić: 173 passningar, xT 0.45ŠepićMohamed Nasraoui: 155 passningar, xT 0.19NasraouiRaul Kumar: 144 passningar, xT 0.29KumarDaouda Doumbia: 127 passningar, xT 0.18DoumbiaFranko Kolić: 118 passningar, xT 0.08KolićRene Hrvatin: 102 passningar, xT 0.51HrvatinEmil Frederiksen: 95 passningar, xT 0.77FrederiksenSamuli Rasmus Miettinen: 91 passningar, xT 0.12MiettinenGustavo Hidalgo Albarracín: 90 passningar, xT 0.45AlbarracínAntonio Maurić: 90 passningar, xT 0.21MaurićHamza Jaganjac: 54 passningar, xT 0.4Jaganjac
    Gorica
    Stefan Perić: 189 passningar, xT 0.23PerićIvan Cvijanović: 185 passningar, xT 0.67CvijanovićJakov Filipović: 149 passningar, xT 0.09FilipovićFilip Braut: 122 passningar, xT 0.38BrautDomagoj Pavičić: 113 passningar, xT 0.26PavičićAnte Kavelj: 91 passningar, xT 0.34KaveljJuraj Frigan: 83 passningar, xT -0.04FriganDavor Matijaš: 66 passningar, xT 0.04MatijašDušan Stevanović: 64 passningar, xT 0.09StevanovićBruno Bogojević: 59 passningar, xT 0.64BogojevićJakov Pranjić: 53 passningar, xT 0Pranjić
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Istra 1961
    Niko Šepić: 173 passningar, xT 0.45ŠepićMohamed Nasraoui: 155 passningar, xT 0.19NasraouiRaul Kumar: 144 passningar, xT 0.29KumarDaouda Doumbia: 127 passningar, xT 0.18DoumbiaFranko Kolić: 118 passningar, xT 0.08KolićRene Hrvatin: 102 passningar, xT 0.51HrvatinEmil Frederiksen: 95 passningar, xT 0.77FrederiksenSamuli Rasmus Miettinen: 91 passningar, xT 0.12MiettinenGustavo Hidalgo Albarracín: 90 passningar, xT 0.45AlbarracínAntonio Maurić: 90 passningar, xT 0.21MaurićHamza Jaganjac: 54 passningar, xT 0.4Jaganjac
    Gorica
    Stefan Perić: 189 passningar, xT 0.23PerićIvan Cvijanović: 185 passningar, xT 0.67CvijanovićJakov Filipović: 149 passningar, xT 0.09FilipovićFilip Braut: 122 passningar, xT 0.38BrautDomagoj Pavičić: 113 passningar, xT 0.26PavičićAnte Kavelj: 91 passningar, xT 0.34KaveljJuraj Frigan: 83 passningar, xT -0.04FriganDavor Matijaš: 66 passningar, xT 0.04MatijašDušan Stevanović: 64 passningar, xT 0.09StevanovićBruno Bogojević: 59 passningar, xT 0.64BogojevićJakov Pranjić: 53 passningar, xT 0Pranjić

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceIstra 1961Gorica
    Points61
    xPoints7.96.1
    xG per match1.20.85
    xGA per match1.51.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.24
    Playing styleIstra 1961Gorica
    Build-up efficiency0.290.28
    Field tilt0.40.3
    xT per match10.76
    xTA per match11.2
    Won balls, offensive half2225
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.270.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.170.27
    Entries into the box per match139
    Entries into the box against1614
    Pass completion %0.750.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.64
    Passes per match301280
    Passes against per match404392
    Switches of play per match15.721.9
    Long balls per match2430
    Set piecesIstra 1961Gorica
    xG from free kicks00.05
    Corners per match4.82.8
    Corners against per match5.86.7
    xG per corner0.010.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.280.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.510.57
    OtherIstra 1961Gorica
    Throw-in control0.670.68
    The goalkeepersFranko Kolić (Istra 1961)Davor Matijaš (Gorica)
    Saves2312
    Save %72%60%
    xG prevented48%43%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Istra 1961
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Gorica
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Istra 1961 vs Gorica according to our model?

    The model gives Istra 1961 a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Istra 1961 50%, draw 28%, Gorica 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.