Croatian HNL22°14 km/h

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    RudešRudešPossession control
    vs
    Hajduk SplitHajduk SplitPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Hajduk Split (74%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 3.75 (+25 %)

    Rudeš – Hajduk Split · Croatian HNL

    1 · Rudeš 10%X 17%74% Hajduk Split · 2

    Analysis: Rudeš – Hajduk Split

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    Hajduk’s current form and strategic approach underscore an expectation for them to control the match through their possession-based high press, contrasting with Rudeš’s more conservative possession play.

    Rudeš’s struggles are highlighted by their mere 0.67 expected goals per match and a concerning 2.2 expected goals against. Their approach lacks the offensive punch to trouble a defensively robust Hajduk, who boast a mere 0.84 xGA per match. With only 3 points on the board, Rudeš is up against a Hajduk side whose expected points (5.9) significantly outstrip their actual tally, suggesting a stronger underlying performance than reflected by their current 7 points.

    The expected goals model leans heavily towards Hajduk Split, predicting a commanding offensive display with 3.00 expected goals. Their ability to capitalize on high pressing situations could see them dismantle a Rudeš side prone to defensive lapses. A most likely scoreline of 0-3 or 0-2 speaks volumes of the anticipated dynamics, where Rudeš may struggle to penetrate Hajduk’s disciplined setup.

    Punters should note the value (EV+) in the away win at odds of 1.46 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's 74% confidence in a Hajduk victory underscores a 7% edge, a sharp angle in assessing the fixture. While a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals aligns with the expected one-sided affair, the standout opportunity—backing the visitors—offers a compelling betting prospect.

    RudešRudeš
    Form LLLWL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #8xP/match #10Points #8
    Key players
    • Jurica PoldrugačFxG 0.09 · xT 0.11
    • Xavier Cabrita FernandesCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.15
    • Bruno UnusicRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    Hajduk SplitHajduk Split
    Form WLDWW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #2xP/match #5Points #4
    Key players
    • Marko LivajaFxG 0.76 · xT 0.33
    • Rokas PukštasCDMxG 0.34 · xT 0.24
    • Adrion PajazitiCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Rudeš – Hajduk Split

    Predicted score matrix

    Hajduk Split →
    Rudeš →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.4%
    0–16.6%
    0–210.1%
    0–310.1%
    0–4+16.0%
    1
    1–01.6%
    1–15.5%
    1–28.0%
    1–38.0%
    1–4+12.7%
    2
    2–00.7%
    2–12.1%
    2–23.2%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+5.1%
    3
    3–00.2%
    3–10.6%
    3–20.8%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+1.3%
    4+
    4+–00.0%
    4+–10.1%
    4+–20.2%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.0-310%
    2. 2.0-210%
    3. 3.1-38%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.0-48%
    Expected goals
    0,80–3,00
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,8
    Under 2,527%
    @2.42
    Over 2,573%
    @1.49EV+9%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hajduk Split to win74%
    • Over 1.5 goals89%

    Combined probability

    75%

    Fair odds

    1.34

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Hajduk Split to win74%
    • Over 2.5 goals73%
    • Rokas Pukštas to score38%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals73%
    • Rokas Pukštas to score38%
    • Noa Skoko to be booked26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.533% probability@3.75BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
    • Over 4.533% probability@3.75BetssonEV+25%reference odds
    • Over 4.533% probability@3.75NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · RudešX2 · Hajduk Split
    Betsafe8.405.351.27
    Betsson8.405.351.27
    Nordicbet8.405.351.27
    Pinnacle9.035.511.27

    Odds updated 3 Sept, 05:12

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Hajduk Split win since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 1.36 to 1.27 (−6%).

    1+23 %
    14 %9 %

    7.32 → 9.03

    X+14 %
    20 %15 %

    4.85 → 5.51

    2-6 %
    73 %68 %

    1.36 → 1.27

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rudeš
    Hajduk Split
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Rudeš (6–15)
    Hajduk Split (9–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rudeš
    Vedran Celjak: 205 passningar, xT 0.61CeljakMarko Stolnik: 156 passningar, xT 0.1StolnikIvan Đorić: 129 passningar, xT -0.05ĐorićXavier Cabrita Fernandes: 117 passningar, xT 0.48FernandesBruno Unusic: 113 passningar, xT 0.34UnusicLovre Rogić: 103 passningar, xT 0.16RogićToni Kolega: 101 passningar, xT 0.21KolegaNoa Skoko: 95 passningar, xT 0.26SkokoJurica Poldrugač: 80 passningar, xT 0.44PoldrugačFelipe Castaldo Curcio: 62 passningar, xT 0.04CurcioJakov Blagaić: 59 passningar, xT 0.05Blagaić
    Hajduk Split
    Alec Van Hoorenbeeck: 224 passningar, xT 0.26HoorenbeeckDario Marešić: 206 passningar, xT 0.55MarešićAdrion Pajaziti: 203 passningar, xT 0.24PajazitiŠimun Hrgović: 118 passningar, xT 0.3HrgovićLuka Hodak: 110 passningar, xT 0.11HodakToni Silić: 108 passningar, xT 0.17SilićRoko Gabric: 108 passningar, xT 0.07GabricAlberto del Moral Saelices: 78 passningar, xT 0.08SaelicesNiko Kristian Sigur: 75 passningar, xT 0.08SigurMathieu Acapandié: 69 passningar, xT 0.24AcapandiéRokas Pukštas: 68 passningar, xT 0.56Pukštas
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rudeš
    Vedran Celjak: 205 passningar, xT 0.61CeljakMarko Stolnik: 156 passningar, xT 0.1StolnikIvan Đorić: 129 passningar, xT -0.05ĐorićXavier Cabrita Fernandes: 117 passningar, xT 0.48FernandesBruno Unusic: 113 passningar, xT 0.34UnusicLovre Rogić: 103 passningar, xT 0.16RogićToni Kolega: 101 passningar, xT 0.21KolegaNoa Skoko: 95 passningar, xT 0.26SkokoJurica Poldrugač: 80 passningar, xT 0.44PoldrugačFelipe Castaldo Curcio: 62 passningar, xT 0.04CurcioJakov Blagaić: 59 passningar, xT 0.05Blagaić
    Hajduk Split
    Alec Van Hoorenbeeck: 224 passningar, xT 0.26HoorenbeeckDario Marešić: 206 passningar, xT 0.55MarešićAdrion Pajaziti: 203 passningar, xT 0.24PajazitiŠimun Hrgović: 118 passningar, xT 0.3HrgovićLuka Hodak: 110 passningar, xT 0.11HodakToni Silić: 108 passningar, xT 0.17SilićRoko Gabric: 108 passningar, xT 0.07GabricAlberto del Moral Saelices: 78 passningar, xT 0.08SaelicesNiko Kristian Sigur: 75 passningar, xT 0.08SigurMathieu Acapandié: 69 passningar, xT 0.24AcapandiéRokas Pukštas: 68 passningar, xT 0.56Pukštas

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRudešHajduk Split
    Points37
    xPoints3.75.9
    xG per match0.671.6
    xGA per match2.20.84
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.050.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.410.11
    Playing styleRudešHajduk Split
    Build-up efficiency0.270.31
    Field tilt0.350.69
    xT per match0.711.4
    xTA per match1.50.63
    Won balls, offensive half1928
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.260.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.25
    Entries into the box per match814
    Entries into the box against168
    Pass completion %0.740.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.76
    Passes per match289407
    Passes against per match403271
    Switches of play per match24.127.1
    Long balls per match3135
    Set piecesRudešHajduk Split
    xG from free kicks0.160.02
    Corners per match34
    Corners against per match7.52.7
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.020
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.91
    OtherRudešHajduk Split
    Throw-in control0.620.77
    The goalkeepersLovre Rogić (Rudeš)Toni Silić (Hajduk Split)
    Saves226
    Save %60%55%
    xG prevented37%14%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rudeš vs Hajduk Split according to our model?

    The model gives Hajduk Split a 74% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rudeš 10%, draw 17%, Hajduk Split 74%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 0-3 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.