Croatian HNL24°14 km/h

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    VaraždinVaraždin
    2–0
    RijekaRijeka
    The model's lean: 2 · Rijeka (47%)

    Varaždin – Rijeka · Croatian HNL

    1 · Varaždin 23%X 30%47% Rijeka · 2
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Varaždin 23% · Draw 30% · Rijeka 47%

    Match prediction: Varaždin – Rijeka

    Predicted score matrix

    Rijeka →
    Varaždin →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.7%
    0–112.0%
    0–29.1%
    0–34.5%
    0–4+2.3%
    1
    1–08.1%
    1–112.8%
    1–29.2%
    1–34.5%
    1–4+2.3%
    2
    2–04.2%
    2–16.2%
    2–24.6%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–01.4%
    3–12.1%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,00–1,47
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @1.70
    Over 2,545%
    @2.12

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Rijeka to win47%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.88

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Rijeka to win47%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%

    Combined probability

    21%

    Fair odds

    4.73

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.74

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Rijeka47% probability@2.55PinnacleEV+21%
    Bookmaker1 · VaraždinX2 · Rijeka
    Pinnacle2.853.06
    EV+ 21%
    2.55

    Odds updated 15 Aug, 15:55

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Varaždin win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 3.34 to 2.85 (−15%).

    1-15 %
    35 %25 %

    3.34 → 2.85

    X-5 %
    35 %25 %

    3.23 → 3.06

    2+18 %
    45 %35 %

    2.17 → 2.55

    Over 2,5+5 %
    51 %41 %

    2.01 → 2.12

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Varaždin vs Rijeka according to our model?

    The model gives Rijeka a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Varaždin 23%, draw 30%, Rijeka 47%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.