01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Varaždin to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Croatian HNL24°16 km/h
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VaraždinCounter-attacks & crosses0–0
Istra 1961Possession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Varaždin (53%)
Varaždin – Istra 1961 · Croatian HNL
1 · Varaždin 53%X 27%20% Istra 1961 · 2
53%
27%
20%
Analysis: Varaždin – Istra 1961
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: NK Varaždin enters this match with a clear edge based on recent form and home advantage. Their 53% probability of winning, as indicated by the model, underscores their superior position going into this matchup. The hosts have consistently found the back of the net in their last 18 league games, an impressive streak that suggests they can exploit Istra 1961's less solid defense, which concedes 1.6 xGA per match.
The most likely scorelines hint at a close contest, with 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 all vying for attention. Interestingly, despite the visitors' affinity for possession and high pressing, their execution hasn't fully translated into points. Istra's xPoints stand at 7.1, above their current tally of 5, indicating that while they control games, they struggle to convert that into results.
The head-to-head record spans eight games, with NK Varaždin holding 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, but this history doesn't overshadow the current form. Varaždin's counter-attacking prowess, coupled with effective use of crosses, could be the key to unlocking Istra's defense. The expected goal count of 1.67 for the home side versus 1.15 for the visitors reinforces this narrative.
Given the over 2.5 goals probability at 54% and both teams to score at 56%, a slightly open match seems plausible, yet the stats lean towards a tighter affair. The analysis suggests a likely scoreline of 2-1 in Varaždin’s favor, with the game edging over 2.5 goals.
In summary, while both teams have their strengths, the home side's consistency in scoring and Istra's defensive vulnerabilities tip the scales toward Varaždin. The value lies in backing the hosts to continue their solid form.
VaraždinForm WWWLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #7xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Aleksa LatkovićFxG 0.21 · xT 0.05
- Luka MamićLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.09
- Ivan MamutFxG 0.46 · xT 0.12
Istra 1961Form LDWLD
League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #5xP/match #6Points #7
Key players
- Emil FrederiksenRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.13
- Hamza JaganjacFxG 0.38 · xT 0.02
- Raul KumarCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Varaždin 53% · Draw 27% · Istra 1961 20%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Istra 1961Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,87fair 14,83-20 %
MissMatchresultat - VarazdinBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,28fair 7,03-25 %
MissMatch prediction: Varaždin – Istra 1961
Predicted score matrix
Istra 1961 →
Varaždin →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–16.5%
0–23.9%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–09.6%
1–111.8%
1–26.6%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.3%
2–19.6%
2–25.5%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–04.6%
3–15.3%
3–23.1%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–02.8%
4+–13.2%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,67–1,15
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.15
Over 2,554%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Varaždin to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Luka Mamić to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Luka Mamić to score24%
- Novak Tepšić to be booked22%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Varaždin | X | 2 · Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| Betsson | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| Nordicbet | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.82 | 3.62 | 4.31 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 10:31
Odds movement
1+8 %
55 %50 %
1.68 → 1.82
X-6 %
28 %23 %
3.85 → 3.62
2-4 %
24 %19 %
4.50 → 4.31
Over 2,5-2 %
57 %52 %
1.74 → 1.71
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesVaraždin 2Draw 3Istra 1961 3
Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 1,4)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Key facts
- NK Varazdin have scored in 18 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Varaždin
Istra 1961
Varaždin (11–5)
Istra 1961 (11–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Varaždin
Istra 1961
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Varaždin
Istra 1961
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Varaždin | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 5 |
| xPoints | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Varaždin | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 0.77 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 306 | 303 |
| Passes against per match | 394 | 394 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.1 | 15.9 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Varaždin | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.8 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| Other | Varaždin | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Josip Silić (Varaždin) | Franko Kolić (Istra 1961) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 19 |
| Save % | 82% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 69% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Varaždin vs Istra 1961 according to our model?
The model gives Varaždin a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Varaždin 53%, draw 27%, Istra 1961 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.