01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Varaždin to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Croatian HNL17°0,3 mm10 km/h
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VaraždinCounter-attacks & crossesvs
OsijekPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Varaždin (49%)
Varaždin – Osijek · Croatian HNL
1 · Varaždin 49%X 26%25% Osijek · 2
49%
26%
25%
Analysis: Varaždin – Osijek
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
A 49% model probability tilts slightly toward Varaždin to edge out Osijek, with the hosts showing a minor but consistent form advantage. The expected goals tell a nuanced story: Varaždin's 1.66 xG suggests an ability to exploit Osijek's defensive lapses, whose xGA stands at 1.3 per match. This defensive vulnerability could be critical in what might be a closely contested game.
Historical head-to-head data, though limited to eight post-2023 meetings, shows the hosts with a superior record, having won three times and drawn four. However, these figures slightly downplay Osijek's competence in possession and control, which might help them mitigate Varaždin's counter-attacking play. The likelihood of a tightly contested 1-1 or 1-0 outcome reflects the narrow margins in play.
With both teams' expected goals indicating a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 51%, caution is advised—Osijek's control-oriented style can suppress goal count. Edging toward a cautious 1-0 victory for Varaždin seems the sensible call, with defensive discipline likely proving decisive.
VaraždinForm WWLWD
League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #4Points #3
Key players
- Aleksa LatkovićFxG 0.17 · xT 0.06
- Luka MamićLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
- Ivan MamutFxG 0.46 · xT 0.12
OsijekForm WWLWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #4xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Nail OmerovićLWxG 0.65 · xT 0.19
- Armando Leon ResendezFxG 0.24 · xT 0.04
- Domagoj BukvićRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Varaždin – Osijek
Predicted score matrix
Osijek →
Varaždin →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–16.6%
0–23.7%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–010.6%
1–111.9%
1–26.1%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.1%
2–19.6%
2–25.1%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.0%
3–15.3%
3–22.8%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.0%
4+–13.2%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,66–1,06
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
–
Over 2,551%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Varaždin to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Aleksa Latković to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Aleksa Latković to score24%
- Oleksandr Petrusenko to be booked25%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesVaraždin 3Draw 4Osijek 1
Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 1,4)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Key facts
- NK Varazdin dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Varaždin
Osijek
Varaždin (11–5)
Osijek (13–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Varaždin
Osijek
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Varaždin
Osijek
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Varaždin | Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 12 |
| xPoints | 10 | 8.9 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 0.92 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Varaždin | Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.78 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 0.81 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 330 | 369 |
| Passes against per match | 376 | 279 |
| Switches of play per match | 37.5 | 34.6 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Varaždin | Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| Other | Varaždin | Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Josip Silić (Varaždin) | Marko Malenica (Osijek) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 20 |
| Save % | 83% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 70% | 73% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Varaždin vs Osijek according to our model?
The model gives Varaždin a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Varaždin 49%, draw 26%, Osijek 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.