Croatian HNL18°15 km/h

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    OsijekOsijekPossession control
    vs
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo ZagrebPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Dinamo Zagreb (57%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.69 (+17 %)

    Osijek – Dinamo Zagreb · Croatian HNL

    1 · Osijek 18%X 25%57% Dinamo Zagreb · 2

    Analysis: Osijek – Dinamo Zagreb

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Dinamo Zagreb's dominance over Osijek is underscored by their six wins out of the last eight meetings, but it's their unbeaten streak in the league, stretching to 28 matches, that really sets the tone for this clash. The visitors have been clinical and consistent, exhibiting a high-pressing style that has translated into a superior xG of 2.6 per match, well above the hosts' 1.7. The numbers suggest that the narrative is likely to remain the same.

    Osijek, while possessing a control-oriented style, have struggled to convert possession into results against stronger opponents like Dinamo. With a xGA of 1.3, their defense could be breached by the visitors' aggressive press and efficient forward play. The most likely outcomes, either a 1-2 or 0-2 scoreline, reflect Dinamo's offensive prowess and Osijek's vulnerabilities at the back.

    The model's probabilities give Dinamo a 57% chance of victory, aligning with their recent form and statistical edge. Although the historical goal average of 3.6 hints at a potentially high-scoring encounter, the over 2.5 goals at 57% feels slightly inflated given these teams' defensive tendencies — especially Osijek's xGA figure. With both teams to score sitting at 55%, expect a goal from the hosts, but a Dinamo win seems probable.

    For bettors eyeing value, look to Dinamo Zagreb at odds of 2.00 with Bet365. While never a guarantee, this price reflects the visitors' statistical superiority and recent form. The market may be underestimating Dinamo's ability to extend their unbeaten run, making this a tempting angle to explore.

    OsijekOsijek
    Form WWLWL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #4xP/match #5Points #4
    Key players
    • Nail OmerovićLWxG 0.65 · xT 0.19
    • Armando Leon ResendezFxG 0.24 · xT 0.04
    • Domagoj BukvićRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.10
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
    Form WWWDW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #2
    Key players
    • Dion Drena BeljoFxG 1.30 · xT 0.09
    • Luka StojkovićRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.28
    • Paul Bismarck TabinasRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.23

    Match prediction: Osijek – Dinamo Zagreb

    Predicted score matrix

    Dinamo Zagreb →
    Osijek →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.5%
    0–19.9%
    0–29.9%
    0–36.4%
    0–4+4.8%
    1
    1–05.0%
    1–110.5%
    1–29.9%
    1–36.4%
    1–4+4.9%
    2
    2–02.7%
    2–15.2%
    2–25.0%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+2.5%
    3
    3–00.9%
    3–11.7%
    3–21.7%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–00.3%
    4+–10.5%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-210%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.1-36%
    Expected goals
    1,01–1,94
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.20
    Over 2,557%
    @1.60

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Dinamo Zagreb to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.05

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Dinamo Zagreb to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Dion Drena Beljo to score32%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Dion Drena Beljo to score32%
    • Oleksandr Petrusenko to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw25% probability@4.69PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    • 1 · Osijek18% probability@6.42PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
    • 1 · Osijek18% probability@6.10BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · OsijekX2 · Dinamo Zagreb
    Betsafe
    EV+ 10%
    6.10
    EV+ 8%
    4.30    		1.43
    Betsson
    EV+ 10%
    6.10
    EV+ 8%
    4.30    		1.43
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 10%
    6.10
    EV+ 8%
    4.30    		1.43
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 16%
    6.42
    EV+ 17%
    4.69    		1.43

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:31

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Dinamo Zagreb win since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 1.64 to 1.43 (−13%).

    1+35 %
    22 %12 %

    4.75 → 6.42

    X+20 %
    27 %17 %

    3.91 → 4.69

    2-13 %
    66 %56 %

    1.64 → 1.43

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    Osijek 2Draw 0Dinamo Zagreb 6
    Goals: 8–21 (⌀ 3,6)

    Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • GNK Dinamo Zagreb dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.
    • GNK Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in their last 28 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Osijek
    Dinamo Zagreb
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Osijek (13–9)
    Dinamo Zagreb (12–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Osijek
    Luka Jelenić: 274 passningar, xT 0.21JelenićIvano Kolarik: 273 passningar, xT 0.27KolarikLuka Vrbančić: 221 passningar, xT 0.29VrbančićRoko Jurišić: 160 passningar, xT 0.64JurišićMarko Malenica: 140 passningar, xT 0.06MalenicaSenad Mustafić: 107 passningar, xT 0.15MustafićNail Omerović: 100 passningar, xT 0.08OmerovićDomagoj Bukvić: 88 passningar, xT 0.28BukvićMarcel Heister: 75 passningar, xT 0.25HeisterŠimun Mikolčić: 69 passningar, xT 0.14MikolčićArmando Leon Resendez: 54 passningar, xT 0.13Resendez
    Dinamo Zagreb
    Stjepan Radeljić: 314 passningar, xT 0.91RadeljićNiko Galešić: 233 passningar, xT 0.4GalešićJosip Mišić: 208 passningar, xT 0.6MišićSergi Domínguez Viloria: 179 passningar, xT 0.4ViloriaOlof Matteo Perez Vinlöf: 164 passningar, xT 0.9VinlöfMoris Valinčić: 152 passningar, xT 0.75ValinčićScott Fraser McKenna: 135 passningar, xT 0.21McKennaLukas Kacavenda: 112 passningar, xT 0.24KacavendaPaul Bismarck Tabinas: 112 passningar, xT 0.41TabinasLuka Stojković: 102 passningar, xT 0.65StojkovićMiha Zajc: 102 passningar, xT 0Zajc
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Osijek
    Luka Jelenić: 274 passningar, xT 0.21JelenićIvano Kolarik: 273 passningar, xT 0.27KolarikLuka Vrbančić: 221 passningar, xT 0.29VrbančićRoko Jurišić: 160 passningar, xT 0.64JurišićMarko Malenica: 140 passningar, xT 0.06MalenicaSenad Mustafić: 107 passningar, xT 0.15MustafićNail Omerović: 100 passningar, xT 0.08OmerovićDomagoj Bukvić: 88 passningar, xT 0.28BukvićMarcel Heister: 75 passningar, xT 0.25HeisterŠimun Mikolčić: 69 passningar, xT 0.14MikolčićArmando Leon Resendez: 54 passningar, xT 0.13Resendez
    Dinamo Zagreb
    Stjepan Radeljić: 314 passningar, xT 0.91RadeljićNiko Galešić: 233 passningar, xT 0.4GalešićJosip Mišić: 208 passningar, xT 0.6MišićSergi Domínguez Viloria: 179 passningar, xT 0.4ViloriaOlof Matteo Perez Vinlöf: 164 passningar, xT 0.9VinlöfMoris Valinčić: 152 passningar, xT 0.75ValinčićScott Fraser McKenna: 135 passningar, xT 0.21McKennaLukas Kacavenda: 112 passningar, xT 0.24KacavendaPaul Bismarck Tabinas: 112 passningar, xT 0.41TabinasLuka Stojković: 102 passningar, xT 0.65StojkovićMiha Zajc: 102 passningar, xT 0Zajc

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOsijekDinamo Zagreb
    Points1213
    xPoints8.911.3
    xG per match1.72.6
    xGA per match1.30.48
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.330.28
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.09
    Playing styleOsijekDinamo Zagreb
    Build-up efficiency0.290.32
    Field tilt0.50.82
    xT per match11.7
    xTA per match0.810.45
    Won balls, offensive half2231
    Pressing intensity0.220.2
    Pressing efficiency0.310.37
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.34
    Entries into the box per match1120
    Entries into the box against104
    Pass completion %0.780.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.75
    Passes per match369491
    Passes against per match279234
    Switches of play per match34.634.9
    Long balls per match3532
    Set piecesOsijekDinamo Zagreb
    xG from free kicks0.010.07
    Corners per match58.2
    Corners against per match3.52.4
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.050.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.570.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.83
    OtherOsijekDinamo Zagreb
    Throw-in control0.740.7
    The goalkeepersMarko Malenica (Osijek)Ivan Nevistić (Dinamo Zagreb)
    Saves203
    Save %77%50%
    xG prevented73%52%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Osijek
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dinamo Zagreb
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb according to our model?

    The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Osijek 18%, draw 25%, Dinamo Zagreb 57%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.