Croatian HNL27°11 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    OsijekOsijekPossession control
    3–0
    Slaven BelupoSlaven BelupoLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Osijek (52%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.25 (+16 %)

    Osijek – Slaven Belupo · Croatian HNL

    1 · Osijek 52%X 27%21% Slaven Belupo · 2

    Analysis: Osijek – Slaven Belupo

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Osijek's 52% win probability sets the stage, backed by their stronger xG and xPoints compared to Slaven Belupo. The hosts control possession, aiming to dominate, while the visitors rely on a low defensive block and direct play. Despite an even head-to-head since 2023, the form numbers favor Osijek significantly. Expected goals also lean towards the home side, projecting 1.60 against Slaven's 1.01.

    The most likely outcomes are 1-1 and 1-0, both pointing to a match with limited goal action. The over/under on 2.5 goals is tightly balanced, with a slight tilt towards fewer goals. Both teams to score is essentially a coin toss at 51%. Given these factors, a cautious 1-0 victory for Osijek feels aligned with the patterns.

    For those seeking value, the under 1.5 goals line stands out. With odds of 4.25 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model's 26% probability signals an 11% edge. While not a guarantee, it's the sharpest angle on a game likely defined by tactical caution and defensive discipline.

    OsijekOsijek
    Form WWWWL
    League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #5xP/match #3Points #3
    Key players
    • Nail OmerovićLWxG 0.68 · xT 0.23
    • Domagoj BukvićRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.15
    • Arnel JakupovicFxG 0.58 · xT 0.19
    Slaven BelupoSlaven Belupo
    Form LLLLW
    League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #8xP/match #9Points #8
    Key players
    • Josip MitrovićFxG 0.05 · xT 0.03
    • Karlo IsasegiLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
    • Ljuban CrepuljaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Osijek 52% · Draw 27% · Slaven Belupo 21%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Slaven BelupoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,96fair 19,93-35 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - OsijekBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,65fair 7,99-42 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Osijek – Slaven Belupo

    Predicted score matrix

    Slaven Belupo →
    Osijek →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.7%
    0–17.1%
    0–23.7%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–011.4%
    1–112.2%
    1–26.0%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.4%
    2–19.5%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–05.0%
    3–15.1%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.9%
    4+–12.9%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,60–1,01
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @2.25EV+11%
    Over 2,548%
    @1.63

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Osijek to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.82

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Osijek to win52%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Nail Omerović to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Nail Omerović to score27%
    • Ivan Ćubelić to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.552% probability@2.25PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
    • Under 1.526% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    • Under 1.526% probability@4.25BetssonEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · OsijekX2 · Slaven Belupo
    Betsafe1.65
    EV+ 0%
    3.70    		4.50
    Betsson1.65
    EV+ 0%
    3.70    		4.50
    Nordicbet1.65
    EV+ 0%
    3.70    		4.50
    Pinnacle1.64
    EV+ 5%
    3.87
    EV+ 8%
    5.10

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:13

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    60 %55 %

    1.60 → 1.64

    X+1 %
    27 %22 %

    3.84 → 3.87

    2-2 %
    21 %16 %

    5.18 → 5.10

    Over 2,5+1 %
    60 %55 %

    1.62 → 1.63

    Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    Osijek 3Draw 2Slaven Belupo 3
    Goals: 11–8 (⌀ 2,4)

    Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Osijek
    Slaven Belupo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Osijek (9–5)
    Slaven Belupo (3–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Osijek
    Ivano Kolarik: 190 passningar, xT 0.23KolarikLuka Jelenić: 183 passningar, xT 0.09JelenićLuka Vrbančić: 175 passningar, xT 0.38VrbančićRoko Jurišić: 161 passningar, xT 0.94JurišićSenad Mustafić: 123 passningar, xT 0.12MustafićNail Omerović: 105 passningar, xT 0.7OmerovićMarko Malenica: 92 passningar, xT 0.04MalenicaDomagoj Bukvić: 83 passningar, xT 0.44BukvićŠimun Mikolčić: 66 passningar, xT 0.2MikolčićArnel Jakupovic: 36 passningar, xT 0.23JakupovicJona Ježić: 36 passningar, xT -0.03Ježić
    Slaven Belupo
    Ljuban Crepulja: 170 passningar, xT 0.2CrepuljaDominik Kovačić: 124 passningar, xT 0.17KovačićFilip Krušelj: 110 passningar, xT 0.56KrušeljIvan Cvetko: 107 passningar, xT 0.1CvetkoKarlo Sentić: 88 passningar, xT 0.08SentićJosip Mitrović: 71 passningar, xT 0.07MitrovićIlija Nestorovski: 65 passningar, xT 0.33NestorovskiItsuki Urata: 60 passningar, xT 0.29UrataLovro Banovec: 58 passningar, xT 0.14BanovecLeon Bošnjak: 42 passningar, xT 0.17BošnjakAdetunji Rasaq Adeshina: 34 passningar, xT 0.06Adeshina
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Osijek
    Ivano Kolarik: 190 passningar, xT 0.23KolarikLuka Jelenić: 183 passningar, xT 0.09JelenićLuka Vrbančić: 175 passningar, xT 0.38VrbančićRoko Jurišić: 161 passningar, xT 0.94JurišićSenad Mustafić: 123 passningar, xT 0.12MustafićNail Omerović: 105 passningar, xT 0.7OmerovićMarko Malenica: 92 passningar, xT 0.04MalenicaDomagoj Bukvić: 83 passningar, xT 0.44BukvićŠimun Mikolčić: 66 passningar, xT 0.2MikolčićArnel Jakupovic: 36 passningar, xT 0.23JakupovicJona Ježić: 36 passningar, xT -0.03Ježić
    Slaven Belupo
    Ljuban Crepulja: 170 passningar, xT 0.2CrepuljaDominik Kovačić: 124 passningar, xT 0.17KovačićFilip Krušelj: 110 passningar, xT 0.56KrušeljIvan Cvetko: 107 passningar, xT 0.1CvetkoKarlo Sentić: 88 passningar, xT 0.08SentićJosip Mitrović: 71 passningar, xT 0.07MitrovićIlija Nestorovski: 65 passningar, xT 0.33NestorovskiItsuki Urata: 60 passningar, xT 0.29UrataLovro Banovec: 58 passningar, xT 0.14BanovecLeon Bošnjak: 42 passningar, xT 0.17BošnjakAdetunji Rasaq Adeshina: 34 passningar, xT 0.06Adeshina

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOsijekSlaven Belupo
    Points93
    xPoints73.2
    xG per match2.10.71
    xGA per match1.12.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.430.06
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.170.23
    Playing styleOsijekSlaven Belupo
    Build-up efficiency0.290.29
    Field tilt0.560.32
    xT per match1.20.72
    xTA per match0.771.4
    Won balls, offensive half2420
    Pressing intensity0.210.25
    Pressing efficiency0.320.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.22
    Entries into the box per match136
    Entries into the box against920
    Pass completion %0.780.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.65
    Passes per match350269
    Passes against per match278391
    Switches of play per match30.616.2
    Long balls per match3327
    Set piecesOsijekSlaven Belupo
    xG from free kicks00.01
    Corners per match5.83.5
    Corners against per match2.86.1
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.520.21
    First touch, defensive corners %0.550.58
    OtherOsijekSlaven Belupo
    Throw-in control0.730.66
    The goalkeepersMarko Malenica (Osijek)Karlo Sentić (Slaven Belupo)
    Saves815
    Save %62%63%
    xG prevented58%50%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Osijek
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Slaven Belupo
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Osijek vs Slaven Belupo according to our model?

    The model gives Osijek a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Osijek 52%, draw 27%, Slaven Belupo 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    GoricaGorica
    0–2
    OsijekOsijek
    1 31%X 29%2 39%
    The model called the outcome
    Istra 1961Istra 1961
    2–3
    Lokomotiva ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
    1 33%X 30%2 37%
    The model called the outcome
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
    2–0
    Slaven BelupoSlaven Belupo
    1 75%X 15%2 10%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.