Croatian HNL21°6,3 mm15 km/h

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    Slaven BelupoSlaven Belupo
    vs
    GoricaGorica
    The model's lean: 1 · Slaven Belupo (39%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.70 (+12 %)

    Slaven Belupo – Gorica · Croatian HNL

    1 · Slaven Belupo 39%X 29%32% Gorica · 2

    Match prediction: Slaven Belupo – Gorica

    Predicted score matrix

    Gorica →
    Slaven Belupo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.4%
    0–19.0%
    0–24.9%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–012.0%
    1–113.2%
    1–26.6%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.4%
    2–18.8%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–03.9%
    3–14.0%
    3–22.1%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-09%
    4. 4.0-19%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,37–1,04
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,557%
    @1.95EV+11%
    Over 2,543%
    @1.75

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Slaven Belupo or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.80

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Slaven Belupo or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 2.5 goals57%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.33

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals43%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.83

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.530% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+12%
    • Under 1.530% probability@3.70BetssonEV+12%
    • Under 1.530% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+12%
    Bookmaker1 · Slaven BelupoX2 · Gorica
    Betsafe
    EV+ 6%
    2.72    		3.252.42
    Betsson
    EV+ 6%
    2.72    		3.252.42
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 6%
    2.72    		3.252.42

    Odds updated 17 Aug, 18:36

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Slaven Belupo vs Gorica according to our model?

    The model gives Slaven Belupo a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slaven Belupo 39%, draw 29%, Gorica 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.