01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Slaven Belupo or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Croatian HNL21°11 km/h
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Slaven BelupoLow block & direct2–1
Lokomotiva ZagrebLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Slaven Belupo (36%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.05 (+28 %)
Slaven Belupo – Lokomotiva Zagreb · Croatian HNL
1 · Slaven Belupo 36%X 30%34% Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2
36%
30%
34%
Analysis: Slaven Belupo – Lokomotiva Zagreb
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
In eight recent meetings, Slaven Belupo have the edge with four wins to Lokomotiva Zagreb's two. Yet, this small sample size shouldn't overshadow current form and expected goals, which slightly favor the visitors. Lokomotiva, despite losing their last three matches, carry a slight statistical edge in points, xPoints, and xG, suggesting a potential for reversal.
The model assigns a razor-thin advantage to the hosts, Slaven Belupo, likely benefiting from their historical dominance in this fixture. The most probable outcomes are tightly clustered, with a 1-1 draw (13%) leading the forecast, followed by a narrow win for either side. Both teams adopt a low defense and direct playing style, which could see the match morph into a midfield battle with few clear chances.
Expect a tight match where goals may be scarce. The expected goals for Slaven Belupo sit at 1.26 compared to Lokomotiva's 1.09, supporting the model's skew towards a match under the 2.5 goal line. At 42%, the likelihood of exceeding this threshold seems low, while both teams scoring is calculated at only 48%.
The sharper angle here lies in the under 1.5 goals market. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds of 4.05, there's a significant value (EV+) as the model rates this outcome at 32%. Betting on a low-scoring affair could maximize returns, given the tactical patterns and recent defensive stats of both teams.
Slaven BelupoForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #9xP/match #9Points #9
Key players
- Josip MitrovićFxG 0.06 · xT 0.03
- Ljuban CrepuljaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
- Ilija NestorovskiCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.12
Lokomotiva ZagrebForm WWLLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #10xP/match #8Points #6
Key players
- Marko PajačLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.35
- Mirko MarićFxG 0.62 · xT -0.01
- Dušan VukovićFxG 0.13 · xT 0.02
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Slaven Belupo 36% · Draw 30% · Lokomotiva Zagreb 34%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Slaven BelupoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,92fair 12,80-46 %
MissMatchresultat - NK Lokomotiva ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,25fair 16,83-57 %
MissMatch prediction: Slaven Belupo – Lokomotiva Zagreb
Predicted score matrix
Lokomotiva Zagreb →
Slaven Belupo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.9%
0–110.1%
0–25.7%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–011.6%
1–113.5%
1–27.2%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–07.5%
2–18.2%
2–24.5%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.2%
3–13.4%
3–21.9%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.4%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,26–1,09
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@2.13EV+21%
Over 2,542%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Slaven Belupo or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Josip Mitrović to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Jakov-Anton Vasilj to score19%
- Ljuban Crepulja to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.532% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
- Under 1.532% probability@4.05BetssonEV+28%reference odds
- Under 1.532% probability@4.05NordicbetEV+28%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Slaven Belupo | X | 2 · Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | EV+ 1% 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Betsson | 2.45 | EV+ 1% 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | EV+ 1% 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | EV+ 11% 3.63 | 2.61 |
Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Lokomotiva Zagreb win since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 2.81 to 2.61 (−7%).
1+9 %
41 %36 %
2.32 → 2.53
X+3 %
29 %24 %
3.54 → 3.63
2-7 %
38 %33 %
2.81 → 2.61
Over 2,50 %
58 %53 %
1.71 → 1.71
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesSlaven Belupo 4Draw 2Lokomotiva Zagreb 2
Goals: 12–8 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Key facts
- Slaven Belupo Koprivnica dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Slaven Belupo
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Slaven Belupo (3–12)
Lokomotiva Zagreb (7–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Slaven Belupo
Lokomotiva Zagreb
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Slaven Belupo
Lokomotiva Zagreb
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Slaven Belupo | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 6 |
| xPoints | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| xG per match | 0.68 | 0.89 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.52 |
| Playing style | Slaven Belupo | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| xT per match | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 6 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 19 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 258 | 238 |
| Passes against per match | 406 | 392 |
| Switches of play per match | 17 | 22.5 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Slaven Belupo | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| Other | Slaven Belupo | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| The goalkeepers | Karlo Sentić (Slaven Belupo) | Josip Posavec (Lokomotiva Zagreb) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 25 |
| Save % | 60% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Zagreb according to our model?
The model gives Slaven Belupo a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slaven Belupo 36%, draw 30%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.