01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Slovácko or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Czech First League21°1,4 mm24 km/h
Läs på svenska
SlováckoBalanced & physical0–0
PardubiceLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Slovácko (38%)
Slovácko – Pardubice · Czech First League
1 · Slovácko 38%X 30%32% Pardubice · 2
38%
30%
32%
Analysis: Slovácko – Pardubice
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The model gives Slovácko a narrow edge with a 38% win probability, yet the contest feels tighter than these numbers suggest. Despite the hosts' historical dominance, the small head-to-head sample of five matches since 2023 shows that it's Slovácko who have consistently had the upper hand. Meanwhile, Pardubice's superior xPoints and higher xG indicate they're more threatening than their real-world points tally suggests.
Both teams' playing styles could create a cagey affair. Slovácko's balanced and physical approach contrasts with Pardubice's low-block and direct strategy, likely resulting in a battle over space and possession rather than free-flowing football. Expected goals reflect this tactical clash: Slovácko at 1.37 against Pardubice's 1.17, pointing towards a possibly tight match.
With a 47% probability for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, the data leans towards a low-scoring draw. The most probable scoreline is 1-1 (13%), but given Slovácko's slight form edge, a 1-0 home win (10%) is plausible.
SlováckoForm DLLLD
League ranking xG #15xGA #12xT #12xP/match #14Points #14
Key players
- Šimon SlončíkCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.15
- Marek HavlikRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
- Michal TravnikCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
PardubiceForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #8xP/match #5Points #15
Key players
- Vojtech PatrakFxG 0.09 · xT 0.02
- Samuel SimekFxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
- Daniel SmékalFxG 0.29 · xT 0.07
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Slovácko 38% · Draw 30% · Pardubice 32%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SlovackoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,34fair 10,40-20 %
MissMatchresultat - FK PardubiceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,98fair 14,24-30 %
MissMatch prediction: Slovácko – Pardubice
Predicted score matrix
Pardubice →
Slovácko →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.2%
0–18.8%
0–25.4%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.4%
1–113.0%
1–27.4%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.7%
2–25.1%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.0%
3–22.3%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,37–1,17
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,553%
@1.75
Over 2,547%
@1.95
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Slovácko or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Giannis Niarchos to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Giannis Niarchos to score21%
- Tihomir Kostadinov to be booked19%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Slovácko | X | 2 · Pardubice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| Betsson | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 13:40
Odds movement
1-4 %
41 %36 %
2.45 → 2.35
X-3 %
30 %25 %
3.35 → 3.25
2+7 %
36 %31 %
2.62 → 2.80
Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesSlovácko 3Draw 2Pardubice 0
Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 1,6)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- 1. FC Slovacko dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Slovácko
Pardubice
Slovácko (5–12)
Pardubice (5–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Slovácko
Pardubice
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Slovácko
Pardubice
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Slovácko | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 1 |
| xPoints | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| xG per match | 0.87 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Slovácko | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 0.98 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 340 | 248 |
| Passes against per match | 366 | 401 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.6 | 21.7 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Slovácko | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.56 |
| Other | Slovácko | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Milan Heca (Slovácko) | Vladimír Neuman (Pardubice) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 10 |
| Save % | 60% | 56% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Slovácko vs Pardubice according to our model?
The model gives Slovácko a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slovácko 38%, draw 30%, Pardubice 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.