Sparta Praha vs Jablonec: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Czech First League12 September 202617°7 km/h

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Sparta PrahaPossession & high press

JablonecCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Sparta Praha (59%)

1 · Sparta Praha 59%X 24%17% Jablonec · 2

59%

24%

17%

Analysis: Sparta Praha – Jablonec

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

FAKTA vs TEXT comparison reveals two issues:

1. The text invents betting odds ("Bet365 offering a tempting 2.00 for a home win") that are not present anywhere in the FACTS. 2. The text predicts "a 2-1 victory for Sparta seems the likeliest outcome," but this scoreline is not among the model's most likely scorelines (1-1, 1-0, 2-0), contradicting the given data.

Corrected TEXT:

Sparta Praha's dominant home form, winning 66% of their matches, sets the stage for another challenging encounter against Jablonec. The model gives the hosts a 59% chance of winning, but intriguingly, the visitors have outperformed in actual points with 13 against Sparta's 9, a gap not quite backed by the xPoints of 10.1 to 10.9. Despite Jablonec's better points tally, their journey to the capital won’t be easy, where they face a team that historically excels in this matchup.

The head-to-head record since 2023 favors Sparta with 4 wins out of 6, albeit a small sample given the overall historical dominance. It's a high-scoring fixture, averaging 3.0 goals per game, which aligns with the model's suggestion of a 55% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood of both teams scoring. Jablonec's style of counter-attacking could exploit gaps left by Sparta's high press, but the expected goals forecast — 1.88 against 1.00 — suggests Sparta might limit these opportunities effectively.

Despite leading in points, Jablonec only slightly edges Sparta in expected goals against per match, 1.0 to 1.1, indicating defensive capabilities. Yet, Sparta’s offensive edge with a higher xG per match of 2.0 over Jablonec’s 1.6 underlines their attacking threat, which could prove decisive. The most probable outcomes of 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0 highlight the tight but potentially favorable conditions for the hosts.

Given the blend of form, historical dominance, and the statistical lean towards over 2.5 goals, a narrow win for Sparta, such as 1-0 or 2-0, seems the likeliest outcome. While the over/under on goals is close, leaning over recognizes Sparta's attacking prowess and Jablonec’s potential for a counter-attacking strike.

Sparta Praha

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #2xGA #6xT #1xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Asger SorensenCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Adam KarabecRWxG 0.44 · xT 0.21
Roman MacekCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.15

Jablonec

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #2xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Matej PolidarLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.27
Saidou Alioum MoubarakFxG 0.35 · xT 0.43
Martin CedidlaRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Sparta Praha – Jablonec

Predicted score matrix

Jablonec →

Sparta Praha →

0–05.9%

0–15.3%

0–22.8%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.3%

1–110.9%

1–25.3%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.0%

2–19.9%

2–24.9%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.2%

3–16.2%

3–23.1%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.5%

4+–14.5%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.3-06%

Expected goals

1,88–1,00

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.15

Over 2,555%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sparta Praha to win59%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sparta Praha to win59%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Adam Karabec to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Adam Karabec to score25%
Dušan Pavlović to be booked20%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Sparta Praha	X	2 · Jablonec
Betsafe	1.55	4.05	4.90
Betsson	1.55	4.05	4.90
Nordicbet	1.55	4.05	4.90

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Jablonec win since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 5.90 to 4.90 (−17%).

1+5 %

64 %59 %

1.47 → 1.55

X-2 %

24 %19 %

4.15 → 4.05

2-17 %

20 %15 %

5.90 → 4.90

Over 2,50 %

60 %55 %

1.62 → 1.62

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Sparta Praha 4Draw 1Jablonec 1

Goals: 11–7 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

Key facts

AC Sparta Prague dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
AC Sparta Prague win 66% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sparta Praha

Jablonec

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sparta Praha (13–12)

Jablonec (10–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sparta Praha

Jablonec

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sparta Praha

Jablonec

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sparta Praha	Jablonec
Points	9	13
xPoints	10.1	10.9
xG per match	2	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.39
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.21

Playing style	Sparta Praha	Jablonec
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.75	0.52
xT per match	1.4	1.3
xTA per match	0.71	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	25	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.27
Entries into the box per match	16	13
Entries into the box against	8	12
Pass completion %	0.81	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.72
Passes per match	463	375
Passes against per match	207	293
Switches of play per match	30.9	35.1
Long balls per match	32	38

Set pieces	Sparta Praha	Jablonec
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.11
Corners per match	7.5	4.9
Corners against per match	4.8	3.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.19	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.65

Other	Sparta Praha	Jablonec
Throw-in control	0.82	0.77

The goalkeepers	Jakub Surovcik (Sparta Praha)	Klemen Mihelak (Jablonec)
Saves	15	12
Save %	56%	75%
xG prevented	26%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sparta Praha

Fixtures, form & tips

Jablonec

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sparta Praha vs Jablonec according to our model?

The model gives Sparta Praha a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Praha 59%, draw 24%, Jablonec 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.