Czech First League22°19 km/h

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    Sparta PrahaSparta PrahaPossession & high press
    0–3
    Slavia PrahaSlavia PrahaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Slavia Praha (42%)

    Sparta Praha – Slavia Praha · Czech First League

    1 · Sparta Praha 31%X 27%42% Slavia Praha · 2

    Analysis: Sparta Praha – Slavia Praha

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    42% — that's the probability of Slavia Praha coming out on top in this Prague derby, according to the model's assessment. The visitors not only have a slight edge in recent form, being unbeaten in six league games, but also boast superior expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPoints) metrics. Their scoring prowess is evident, having found the net in 12 consecutive league matches. It’s no surprise they lead the head-to-head, securing four wins in their last six encounters.

    Despite both teams favoring a possession and high-press style, Slavia's defense has been notably tighter, conceding only 0.77 xGA per match compared to Sparta's 1.1. The expected goals tally leans slightly towards Slavia at 1.55 against Sparta's 1.35, hinting at a possible 1-2 outcome. While the match might see over 2.5 goals (55% probability), the likelihood of both teams scoring is also substantial at 59%.

    For the betting desk, the sharpest angle lies in backing Slavia at odds of 2.55 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. Rated at a 42% chance, this wager offers a 7% edge, a solid value for the prudent bettor. A calculated risk, perhaps, but the numbers support it.

    Sparta PrahaSparta Praha
    Form LWLWW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #5xT #2xP/match #4Points #5
    Key players
    • Lukas HaraslinLWxG 0.60 · xT 0.04
    • Jonatan Braut BrunesFxG 0.57 · xT -0.04
    • Asger SorensenCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
    Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha
    Form WWWDD
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #2Points #1
    Key players
    • Mojmir ChytilFxG 0.81 · xT 0.02
    • Lukas ProvodFxG 0.22 · xT 0.44
    • Michal SadilekCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.11
    Final score
    0 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sparta Praha 31% · Draw 27% · Slavia Praha 42%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Slavia PragBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,47fair 7,88-5 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Sparta PragBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,83fair 10,31-24 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sparta Praha – Slavia Praha

    Predicted score matrix

    Slavia Praha →
    Sparta Praha →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.8%
    0–18.2%
    0–26.6%
    0–33.4%
    0–4+1.9%
    1
    1–07.1%
    1–111.8%
    1–28.9%
    1–34.6%
    1–4+2.5%
    2
    2–05.0%
    2–17.8%
    2–26.0%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–13.5%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.0%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,35–1,55
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,545%
    @1.95
    Over 2,555%
    @1.75

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Slavia Praha or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.88

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Slavia Praha or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Mojmír Chytil to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Matyáš Vojta to score31%
    • Michal Sadílek to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Slavia Praha42% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • 2 · Slavia Praha42% probability@2.52BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    • 2 · Slavia Praha42% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sparta PrahaX2 · Slavia Praha
    Betsafe2.623.30
    EV+ 6%
    2.52
    Betsson2.623.30
    EV+ 6%
    2.52
    Nordicbet2.623.30
    EV+ 6%
    2.52

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 05:36

    Odds movement

    1-6 %
    37 %32 %

    2.80 → 2.62

    X+3 %
    31 %26 %

    3.20 → 3.30

    2+7 %
    39 %34 %

    2.35 → 2.52

    Over 2,5+2 %
    56 %51 %

    1.72 → 1.75

    Betsson · 11 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Sparta Praha 1Draw 1Slavia Praha 4
    Goals: 8–11 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • SK Slavia Prague dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
    • SK Slavia Prague are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    • SK Slavia Prague have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    • AC Sparta Prague win 68% of their home matches all-time (37 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sparta Praha
    Slavia Praha
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sparta Praha (12–7)
    Slavia Praha (14–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sparta Praha
    Tobias Kvalvågnes Guddal: 223 passningar, xT 0.3GuddalAdam Ševínský: 223 passningar, xT 0.36ŠevínskýAndrew Irving: 204 passningar, xT 0.75IrvingRoman Macek: 198 passningar, xT 0.34MacekJaroslav Zeleny: 160 passningar, xT 0.48ZelenyAsger Sorensen: 160 passningar, xT 0.19SorensenMatej Rynes: 154 passningar, xT 0.61RynesJakub Surovcik: 136 passningar, xT 0.04SurovcikAdam Karabec: 116 passningar, xT 0.95KarabecJosimar Angelo Alcócer McCook: 108 passningar, xT 0.37McCookMartin Suchomel: 106 passningar, xT 0.29Suchomel
    Slavia Praha
    Michal Sadilek: 175 passningar, xT 0.5SadilekJakub Markovič: 169 passningar, xT 0.16MarkovičTomas Holes: 164 passningar, xT 0.52HolesDavid Zima: 141 passningar, xT 0.14ZimaMubarak Emmanuel Suleiman: 133 passningar, xT 0.93SuleimanLukas Provod: 125 passningar, xT 1.4ProvodCaumenan Ange Emmanu N'Guessan: 121 passningar, xT 0.21N'GuessanStepan Chaloupek: 86 passningar, xT 0.2ChaloupekWiktor Nowak: 76 passningar, xT 0.29NowakMikulas Konecny: 74 passningar, xT 0.13KonecnyDanijel Sturm: 71 passningar, xT 0.44Sturm
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sparta Praha
    Tobias Kvalvågnes Guddal: 223 passningar, xT 0.3GuddalAdam Ševínský: 223 passningar, xT 0.36ŠevínskýAndrew Irving: 204 passningar, xT 0.75IrvingRoman Macek: 198 passningar, xT 0.34MacekJaroslav Zeleny: 160 passningar, xT 0.48ZelenyAsger Sorensen: 160 passningar, xT 0.19SorensenMatej Rynes: 154 passningar, xT 0.61RynesJakub Surovcik: 136 passningar, xT 0.04SurovcikAdam Karabec: 116 passningar, xT 0.95KarabecJosimar Angelo Alcócer McCook: 108 passningar, xT 0.37McCookMartin Suchomel: 106 passningar, xT 0.29Suchomel
    Slavia Praha
    Michal Sadilek: 175 passningar, xT 0.5SadilekJakub Markovič: 169 passningar, xT 0.16MarkovičTomas Holes: 164 passningar, xT 0.52HolesDavid Zima: 141 passningar, xT 0.14ZimaMubarak Emmanuel Suleiman: 133 passningar, xT 0.93SuleimanLukas Provod: 125 passningar, xT 1.4ProvodCaumenan Ange Emmanu N'Guessan: 121 passningar, xT 0.21N'GuessanStepan Chaloupek: 86 passningar, xT 0.2ChaloupekWiktor Nowak: 76 passningar, xT 0.29NowakMikulas Konecny: 74 passningar, xT 0.13KonecnyDanijel Sturm: 71 passningar, xT 0.44Sturm

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSparta PrahaSlavia Praha
    Points911
    xPoints7.99.4
    xG per match2.12.5
    xGA per match1.10.77
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.160.56
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.150.14
    Playing styleSparta PrahaSlavia Praha
    Build-up efficiency0.330.35
    Field tilt0.750.68
    xT per match1.31.4
    xTA per match0.850.4
    Won balls, offensive half2431
    Pressing intensity0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency0.340.37
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.38
    Entries into the box per match1618
    Entries into the box against78
    Pass completion %0.820.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.7
    Passes per match462329
    Passes against per match228198
    Switches of play per match34.225.6
    Long balls per match3536
    Set piecesSparta PrahaSlavia Praha
    xG from free kicks0.040.01
    Corners per match6.55.9
    Corners against per match4.54.2
    xG per corner0.050.05
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.220.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.38
    OtherSparta PrahaSlavia Praha
    Throw-in control0.820.72
    The goalkeepersJakub Surovcik (Sparta Praha)Jakub Markovič (Slavia Praha)
    Saves107
    Save %59%58%
    xG prevented24%33%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sparta Praha
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Slavia Praha
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha according to our model?

    The model gives Slavia Praha a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Praha 31%, draw 27%, Slavia Praha 42%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Baník OstravaBaník Ostrava
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.