Czech First League16°15 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Hradec KrálovéHradec KrálovéPossession control
    2–1
    Sparta PrahaSparta PrahaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Sparta Praha (47%)

    Hradec Králové – Sparta Praha · Czech First League

    1 · Hradec Králové 26%X 26%47% Sparta Praha · 2

    Analysis: Hradec Králové – Sparta Praha

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    The numbers favor Sparta Praha in their clash against Hradec Králové, with a 47% likelihood of winning and a historical advantage of four victories in their last five meetings. Despite these figures, the most probable outcome remains a 1-1 draw at 12%, indicating a competitive edge in favor of the visitors without ruling out the hosts' potential. Hradec Králové's home win rate stands at 56%, albeit in a smaller sample, suggesting resilience in their own stadium.

    Sparta's style, combining possession with a high press, contrasts with Hradec Králové's focus on controlling possession. This tactical clash could become a pivotal factor, particularly if the visitors can disrupt the hosts' rhythm. With both teams having similar expected goals against (xGA) of 1.1 per match, the influence of these strategic choices might determine the scoring opportunities.

    The expected goals (xG) figures further underscore Sparta Praha's edge, with a notable 2.2 xG per match compared to Hradec's 1.3. Such a difference emphasizes Sparta's attacking prowess, aligning with their higher xPoints and actual points this season. Their superior offensive capability makes a 1-2 victory plausible, the second most likely scoreline at 9%.

    The market has identified value in the over 2.5 goals bet. With a 56% probability of hitting over 2.5 goals and the odds set at 1.82 by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a slight edge to exploit. Sparta's attacking style and the hosts' ability to score at home suggest this could indeed be a profitable angle for bettors seeking value.

    In sum, expect Sparta Praha to edge this encounter, potentially 1-2, with a favorable lean towards over 2.5 goals as the sharpest betting angle available.

    Hradec KrálovéHradec Králové
    Form WDWLL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #4xP/match #9Points #10
    Key players
    • Mick Van BurenFxG 0.38 · xT 0.20
    • Daniel HorakLWBxG 0.19 · xT 0.19
    • Frantisek CechCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.04
    Sparta PrahaSparta Praha
    Form WLWWL
    League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #1xP/match #4Points #8
    Key players
    • Lukas HaraslinLWxG 0.60 · xT 0.04
    • Asger SorensenCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
    • Adam KarabecRWxG 0.49 · xT 0.26
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Hradec Králové 26% · Draw 26% · Sparta Praha 47%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Sparta PragBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,62fair 7,12-21 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Hradec KraloveBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,76fair 11,71-25 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Hradec Králové – Sparta Praha

    Predicted score matrix

    Sparta Praha →
    Hradec Králové →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.8%
    0–18.6%
    0–27.3%
    0–34.0%
    0–4+2.4%
    1
    1–06.6%
    1–111.7%
    1–29.3%
    1–35.1%
    1–4+3.0%
    2
    2–04.4%
    2–17.2%
    2–25.9%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.9%
    3
    3–01.9%
    3–13.1%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-27%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,28–1,64
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @2.12
    Over 2,556%
    @1.65

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sparta Praha to win47%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.71

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sparta Praha to win47%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Matyáš Vojta to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Mick van Buren to score25%
    • Vladimír Darida to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · Hradec KrálovéX2 · Sparta Praha
    Betsafe3.203.402.05
    Betsson3.203.402.05
    Nordicbet3.203.402.05

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1-7 %
    31 %26 %

    3.45 → 3.20

    X0 %
    30 %25 %

    3.40 → 3.40

    2+4 %
    47 %42 %

    1.98 → 2.05

    Betsson · 12 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Hradec Králové 1Draw 0Sparta Praha 4
    Goals: 3–10 (⌀ 2,6)

    Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • AC Sparta Prague dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
    • FC Hradec Kralove win 56% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hradec Králové
    Sparta Praha
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hradec Králové (4–5)
    Sparta Praha (12–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hradec Králové
    Filip Cihak: 261 passningar, xT 0.47CihakVladimir Darida: 242 passningar, xT 1.09DaridaDaniel Horak: 193 passningar, xT 0.88HorakFrantisek Cech: 174 passningar, xT 0.15CechJakub Uhrincat: 151 passningar, xT 0.41UhrincatAdam Zadrazil: 147 passningar, xT 0.17ZadrazilSamuel Dancak: 121 passningar, xT 0.45DancakFilip Mielke: 93 passningar, xT 0.06MielkeTom Sloncik: 92 passningar, xT -0.01SloncikMatěj Valenta: 80 passningar, xT 0.02ValentaDavid Ludvicek: 74 passningar, xT 0.03Ludvicek
    Sparta Praha
    Tobias Kvalvågnes Guddal: 295 passningar, xT 0.51GuddalRoman Macek: 263 passningar, xT 0.41MacekMatej Rynes: 188 passningar, xT 0.96RynesAdam Ševínský: 161 passningar, xT 0.29ŠevínskýAsger Sorensen: 160 passningar, xT 0.19SorensenAndrew Irving: 155 passningar, xT 0.68IrvingJakub Surovcik: 144 passningar, xT 0.04SurovcikJaroslav Zeleny: 122 passningar, xT 0.61ZelenyMartin Suchomel: 118 passningar, xT 0.33SuchomelAdam Karabec: 112 passningar, xT 0.8KarabecJosimar Angelo Alcócer McCook: 93 passningar, xT 0.32McCook
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hradec Králové
    Filip Cihak: 261 passningar, xT 0.47CihakVladimir Darida: 242 passningar, xT 1.09DaridaDaniel Horak: 193 passningar, xT 0.88HorakFrantisek Cech: 174 passningar, xT 0.15CechJakub Uhrincat: 151 passningar, xT 0.41UhrincatAdam Zadrazil: 147 passningar, xT 0.17ZadrazilSamuel Dancak: 121 passningar, xT 0.45DancakFilip Mielke: 93 passningar, xT 0.06MielkeTom Sloncik: 92 passningar, xT -0.01SloncikMatěj Valenta: 80 passningar, xT 0.02ValentaDavid Ludvicek: 74 passningar, xT 0.03Ludvicek
    Sparta Praha
    Tobias Kvalvågnes Guddal: 295 passningar, xT 0.51GuddalRoman Macek: 263 passningar, xT 0.41MacekMatej Rynes: 188 passningar, xT 0.96RynesAdam Ševínský: 161 passningar, xT 0.29ŠevínskýAsger Sorensen: 160 passningar, xT 0.19SorensenAndrew Irving: 155 passningar, xT 0.68IrvingJakub Surovcik: 144 passningar, xT 0.04SurovcikJaroslav Zeleny: 122 passningar, xT 0.61ZelenyMartin Suchomel: 118 passningar, xT 0.33SuchomelAdam Karabec: 112 passningar, xT 0.8KarabecJosimar Angelo Alcócer McCook: 93 passningar, xT 0.32McCook

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHradec KrálovéSparta Praha
    Points79
    xPoints6.79.4
    xG per match1.32.2
    xGA per match1.11.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.240.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.360.24
    Playing styleHradec KrálovéSparta Praha
    Build-up efficiency0.350.33
    Field tilt0.550.76
    xT per match1.11.5
    xTA per match0.930.82
    Won balls, offensive half1825
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.360.34
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.31
    Entries into the box per match1216
    Entries into the box against178
    Pass completion %0.780.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.75
    Passes per match387453
    Passes against per match294211
    Switches of play per match20.432.3
    Long balls per match3033
    Set piecesHradec KrálovéSparta Praha
    xG from free kicks0.050.05
    Corners per match3.27.6
    Corners against per match5.94.1
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.250.18
    First touch, defensive corners %0.480.62
    OtherHradec KrálovéSparta Praha
    Throw-in control0.70.8
    The goalkeepersAdam Zadrazil (Hradec Králové)Jakub Surovcik (Sparta Praha)
    Saves1912
    Save %79%55%
    xG prevented60%24%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Hradec Králové
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sparta Praha
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha according to our model?

    The model gives Sparta Praha a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hradec Králové 26%, draw 26%, Sparta Praha 47%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Sparta PrahaSparta Praha
    3–1
    ZlínZlín
    1 80%X 13%2 7%
    The model called the outcome
    Slovan LiberecSlovan Liberec
    0–1
    TepliceTeplice
    1 40%X 33%2 27%
    The model missed the outcome
    Baník OstravaBaník Ostrava
    0–4
    Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha
    1 18%X 22%2 60%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.