Czech First League19°0,1 mm13 km/h

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    Slovan LiberecSlovan LiberecLow block & direct
    2–0
    Hradec KrálovéHradec KrálovéCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Slovan Liberec (38%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hradec Králové @ 4.20 (+32 %)

    Slovan Liberec – Hradec Králové · Czech First League

    1 · Slovan Liberec 38%X 31%32% Hradec Králové · 2

    Analysis: Slovan Liberec – Hradec Králové

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    A clash of styles awaits as Slovan Liberec hosts Hradec Králové, with both teams leaning heavily on their distinct playing strategies. The home side prefers a low defensive line combined with direct play, while the visitors thrive on counter-attacks and crosses. This strategic contrast should lead to a tightly contested battle. The model gives a slight edge to Liberec, with a 38% probability of victory, but it's the narrow margins that make this encounter so intriguing.

    The expected goals (xG) metrics suggest Liberec might have a slight upper hand, averaging 1.48 expected goals compared to Hradec's 1.10. This aligns with the most likely scorelines being a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 home win. However, the probabilities are finely balanced, with Hradec holding a 32% chance of snatching a victory, not far off from Liberec's 38%. With the over 2.5 goals market sitting at 48%, the odds hint at a cagey affair, perhaps stifled by Liberec's defensive posture and Hradec's calculated counter-attacks.

    Though the head-to-head record over five matches since 2023 is perfectly split, with two wins each and a draw, the sample size remains small, making current form and expected goals more telling. Liberec edges out in points and xPoints, but Hradec brings a slightly more resilient defense, conceding fewer expected goals against per match (0.79) compared to Liberec's 0.97. This suggests an interesting battle between Liberec's attack and Hradec's defense, with both teams likely to find the net.

    For punters, the value lies with the visitors. Despite the model's lean towards a home win, Hradec Králové presents a tempting value bet. With odds at 3.8 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model's 32% victory probability offers a striking 20% edge. In a match where marginal differences could decide the outcome, backing the visitors might just be the shrewd move.

    Slovan LiberecSlovan Liberec
    Form WLWDW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #8xP/match #1Points #4
    Key players
    • Raimonds KrollisFxG 0.45 · xT -0.08
    • Milan LexaFxG 0.09 · xT 0.26
    • Lukas MasekLWxG 0.59 · xT -0.06
    Hradec KrálovéHradec Králové
    Form WLWDW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #3xP/match #3Points #8
    Key players
    • Vladimir DaridaFxG 0.05 · xT 0.27
    • Mick Van BurenRWxG 0.56 · xT 0.34
    • Daniel HorakLWBxG 0.31 · xT 0.17
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Slovan Liberec 38% · Draw 31% · Hradec Králové 32%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Hradec KraloveBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 15,92fair 16,09-1 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Slovan LiberecBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,46fair 9,08-29 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Slovan Liberec – Hradec Králové

    Predicted score matrix

    Hradec Králové →
    Slovan Liberec →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.9%
    0–18.0%
    0–24.6%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–010.8%
    1–112.7%
    1–26.8%
    1–32.5%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.3%
    2–19.1%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–04.1%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.5%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-18%
    Expected goals
    1,48–1,10
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.75
    Over 2,548%
    @1.95

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Slovan Liberec or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Slovan Liberec or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Vasil Kušej to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Vasil Kušej to score28%
    • Vladimír Darida to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Hradec Králové32% probability@4.20BetsafeEV+32%reference odds
    • 2 · Hradec Králové32% probability@4.20BetssonEV+32%reference odds
    • 2 · Hradec Králové32% probability@4.20NordicbetEV+32%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Slovan LiberecX2 · Hradec Králové
    Betsafe1.78
    EV+ 4%
    3.40
    EV+ 32%
    4.20
    Betsson1.78
    EV+ 4%
    3.40
    EV+ 32%
    4.20
    Nordicbet1.78
    EV+ 4%
    3.40
    EV+ 32%
    4.20

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 17:37

    Odds movement

    1-5 %
    52 %47 %

    1.88 → 1.78

    X+1 %
    30 %25 %

    3.35 → 3.40

    2+9 %
    25 %20 %

    3.85 → 4.20

    Over 2,50 %
    50 %45 %

    1.95 → 1.95

    Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Slovan Liberec 2Draw 1Hradec Králové 2
    Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Slovan Liberec
    Hradec Králové
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Slovan Liberec (6–3)
    Hradec Králové (4–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Slovan Liberec
    Lukáš Hůlka: 170 passningar, xT 0.27HůlkaJosef Kozeluh: 149 passningar, xT 0.52KozeluhAugustin Drakpe: 136 passningar, xT 0.11DrakpeAziz Kayondo: 123 passningar, xT 0.7KayondoTomas Koubek: 120 passningar, xT 0.24KoubekLukas Masopust: 116 passningar, xT 0.32MasopustJan Mikula: 76 passningar, xT 0.23MikulaFallou Faye: 63 passningar, xT 0.44FayeMilan Lexa: 54 passningar, xT 0.49LexaVasil Kušej: 40 passningar, xT 0.38KušejRaimonds Krollis: 34 passningar, xT -0.16Krollis
    Hradec Králové
    Frantisek Cech: 169 passningar, xT 0.15CechFilip Cihak: 149 passningar, xT 0.24CihakVladimir Darida: 138 passningar, xT 0.79DaridaDaniel Horak: 107 passningar, xT 0.46HorakAdam Zadrazil: 83 passningar, xT 0.1ZadrazilJakub Uhrincat: 79 passningar, xT 0.32UhrincatSamuel Dancak: 62 passningar, xT 0.42DancakTom Sloncik: 56 passningar, xT 0.09SloncikDavid Ludvicek: 41 passningar, xT 0.01LudvicekMatěj Valenta: 35 passningar, xT 0.02ValentaMick Van Buren: 30 passningar, xT 0.15Buren
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Slovan Liberec
    Lukáš Hůlka: 170 passningar, xT 0.27HůlkaJosef Kozeluh: 149 passningar, xT 0.52KozeluhAugustin Drakpe: 136 passningar, xT 0.11DrakpeAziz Kayondo: 123 passningar, xT 0.7KayondoTomas Koubek: 120 passningar, xT 0.24KoubekLukas Masopust: 116 passningar, xT 0.32MasopustJan Mikula: 76 passningar, xT 0.23MikulaFallou Faye: 63 passningar, xT 0.44FayeMilan Lexa: 54 passningar, xT 0.49LexaVasil Kušej: 40 passningar, xT 0.38KušejRaimonds Krollis: 34 passningar, xT -0.16Krollis
    Hradec Králové
    Frantisek Cech: 169 passningar, xT 0.15CechFilip Cihak: 149 passningar, xT 0.24CihakVladimir Darida: 138 passningar, xT 0.79DaridaDaniel Horak: 107 passningar, xT 0.46HorakAdam Zadrazil: 83 passningar, xT 0.1ZadrazilJakub Uhrincat: 79 passningar, xT 0.32UhrincatSamuel Dancak: 62 passningar, xT 0.42DancakTom Sloncik: 56 passningar, xT 0.09SloncikDavid Ludvicek: 41 passningar, xT 0.01LudvicekMatěj Valenta: 35 passningar, xT 0.02ValentaMick Van Buren: 30 passningar, xT 0.15Buren

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSlovan LiberecHradec Králové
    Points107
    xPoints9.65.4
    xG per match1.81.7
    xGA per match0.970.79
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.27
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.10.18
    Playing styleSlovan LiberecHradec Králové
    Build-up efficiency0.320.35
    Field tilt0.470.56
    xT per match0.971.3
    xTA per match1.10.69
    Won balls, offensive half2515
    Pressing intensity0.240.21
    Pressing efficiency0.290.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.28
    Entries into the box per match1613
    Entries into the box against1011
    Pass completion %0.680.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.73
    Passes per match251362
    Passes against per match324271
    Switches of play per match21.814
    Long balls per match3325
    Set piecesSlovan LiberecHradec Králové
    xG from free kicks0.050.08
    Corners per match5.64
    Corners against per match3.85.3
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.460.17
    First touch, defensive corners %0.680.5
    OtherSlovan LiberecHradec Králové
    Throw-in control0.690.71
    The goalkeepersTomas Koubek (Slovan Liberec)Adam Zadrazil (Hradec Králové)
    Saves913
    Save %75%87%
    xG prevented54%72%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Slovan Liberec
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hradec Králové
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové according to our model?

    The model gives Slovan Liberec a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slovan Liberec 38%, draw 31%, Hradec Králové 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.