Czech First League14°8 km/h

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    Slovan LiberecSlovan LiberecLow block & direct
    vs
    Mladá BoleslavMladá BoleslavPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Slovan Liberec (52%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.85 (+11 %)

    Slovan Liberec – Mladá Boleslav · Czech First League

    1 · Slovan Liberec 52%X 29%19% Mladá Boleslav · 2

    Analysis: Slovan Liberec – Mladá Boleslav

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The numbers point to a tense confrontation as Liberec host Boleslav. With a 52% win probability, the hosts are slight favorites but must contend with Boleslav's six-match unbeaten streak. The expected goals edge of 1.77 to 1.04 favors Liberec, highlighting their potential to break down Boleslav's possession-based approach. Yet, the visitors' resilience might stifle the hosts' low defence and direct playing style.

    Recent form suggests Liberec's three consecutive victories provide momentum, although Boleslav's capacity to avoid defeat in recent encounters cannot be ignored. The head-to-head record is sparse at four matches since 2023, making it less significant than current form. Both teams show similar xG per match, but Liberec's superior xGA metric indicates tighter defensive discipline — a likely key factor in a match projected to drift towards a 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline.

    For value hunters, draw odds of 3.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet appear attractive, offering an 11% edge. Despite the model favoring Liberec, the equal 11% probability for a 1-1 draw ties into this value, suggesting a cautious approach to this matchup could be just as prudent.

    Slovan LiberecSlovan Liberec
    Form WDWWW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #6xP/match #2Points #2
    Key players
    • Raimonds KrollisFxG 0.45 · xT -0.08
    • Patrik DulayRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.10
    • Milan LexaFxG 0.08 · xT 0.30
    Mladá BoleslavMladá Boleslav
    Form DWDWW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #12xT #13xP/match #5Points #3
    Key players
    • Solomon JohnRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.18
    • David KozelRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
    • Martin SubertLWxG 0.40 · xT 0.21

    Match prediction: Slovan Liberec – Mladá Boleslav

    Predicted score matrix

    Mladá Boleslav →
    Slovan Liberec →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–15.9%
    0–23.2%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–010.3%
    1–111.4%
    1–25.7%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.5%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.1%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–05.6%
    3–15.8%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.7%
    4+–13.8%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-06%
    Expected goals
    1,77–1,04
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.20EV+3%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.60

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Slovan Liberec to win52%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.28

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Slovan Liberec to win52%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Lukáš Mašek to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Lukáš Mašek to score26%
    • Roman Macek to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw29% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.85BetssonEV+11%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.85NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Slovan LiberecX2 · Mladá Boleslav
    Betsafe1.60
    EV+ 11%
    3.85    		4.70
    Betsson1.60
    EV+ 11%
    3.85    		4.70
    Nordicbet1.60
    EV+ 11%
    3.85    		4.70

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 13:37

    Odds movement

    1-5 %
    59 %54 %

    1.68 → 1.60

    X+1 %
    26 %21 %

    3.80 → 3.85

    2+9 %
    22 %17 %

    4.30 → 4.70

    Over 2,5-1 %
    59 %54 %

    1.62 → 1.60

    Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Slovan Liberec 1Draw 2Mladá Boleslav 1
    Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FC Slovan Liberec come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • FK Mlada Boleslav are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Slovan Liberec
    Mladá Boleslav
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Slovan Liberec (10–4)
    Mladá Boleslav (15–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Slovan Liberec
    Lukáš Hůlka: 186 passningar, xT 0.35HůlkaAugustin Drakpe: 169 passningar, xT 0.11DrakpeJosef Kozeluh: 161 passningar, xT 0.65KozeluhTomas Koubek: 129 passningar, xT 0.23KoubekAziz Kayondo: 127 passningar, xT 0.7KayondoLukas Masopust: 125 passningar, xT 0.32MasopustJan Mikula: 95 passningar, xT 0.22MikulaFallou Faye: 85 passningar, xT 0.58FayeVasil Kušej: 67 passningar, xT 0.29KušejMilan Lexa: 56 passningar, xT 0.81LexaPetr Hodous: 49 passningar, xT 0.11Hodous
    Mladá Boleslav
    Matej Hybs: 255 passningar, xT 0.59HybsMartin Kralik: 253 passningar, xT 0.38KralikOndřej Karafiát: 251 passningar, xT 0.5KarafiátJan Zika: 247 passningar, xT 0.11ZikaDenis Donat: 177 passningar, xT 0.24DonatDaniel Langhamer: 124 passningar, xT -0.1LanghamerJiri Floder: 118 passningar, xT 0.04FloderDavid Kozel: 100 passningar, xT 0.22KozelSolomon John: 81 passningar, xT 0.5JohnMartin Subert: 74 passningar, xT 0.72SubertJosef Kolarik: 43 passningar, xT 0.03Kolarik
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Slovan Liberec
    Lukáš Hůlka: 186 passningar, xT 0.35HůlkaAugustin Drakpe: 169 passningar, xT 0.11DrakpeJosef Kozeluh: 161 passningar, xT 0.65KozeluhTomas Koubek: 129 passningar, xT 0.23KoubekAziz Kayondo: 127 passningar, xT 0.7KayondoLukas Masopust: 125 passningar, xT 0.32MasopustJan Mikula: 95 passningar, xT 0.22MikulaFallou Faye: 85 passningar, xT 0.58FayeVasil Kušej: 67 passningar, xT 0.29KušejMilan Lexa: 56 passningar, xT 0.81LexaPetr Hodous: 49 passningar, xT 0.11Hodous
    Mladá Boleslav
    Matej Hybs: 255 passningar, xT 0.59HybsMartin Kralik: 253 passningar, xT 0.38KralikOndřej Karafiát: 251 passningar, xT 0.5KarafiátJan Zika: 247 passningar, xT 0.11ZikaDenis Donat: 177 passningar, xT 0.24DonatDaniel Langhamer: 124 passningar, xT -0.1LanghamerJiri Floder: 118 passningar, xT 0.04FloderDavid Kozel: 100 passningar, xT 0.22KozelSolomon John: 81 passningar, xT 0.5JohnMartin Subert: 74 passningar, xT 0.72SubertJosef Kolarik: 43 passningar, xT 0.03Kolarik

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSlovan LiberecMladá Boleslav
    Points1614
    xPoints129.1
    xG per match1.61.5
    xGA per match1.21.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.3
    Playing styleSlovan LiberecMladá Boleslav
    Build-up efficiency0.320.33
    Field tilt0.480.47
    xT per match0.990.91
    xTA per match1.11.5
    Won balls, offensive half2517
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.30.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.17
    Entries into the box per match1810
    Entries into the box against1019
    Pass completion %0.680.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.73
    Passes per match255367
    Passes against per match333375
    Switches of play per match21.712
    Long balls per match3423
    Set piecesSlovan LiberecMladá Boleslav
    xG from free kicks0.080
    Corners per match5.74.9
    Corners against per match3.65.9
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against00.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.550.55
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.54
    OtherSlovan LiberecMladá Boleslav
    Throw-in control0.690.72
    The goalkeepersTomas Koubek (Slovan Liberec)Jiri Floder (Mladá Boleslav)
    Saves1820
    Save %82%77%
    xG prevented61%50%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Slovan Liberec
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Mladá Boleslav
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Slovan Liberec vs Mladá Boleslav according to our model?

    The model gives Slovan Liberec a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slovan Liberec 52%, draw 29%, Mladá Boleslav 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.