Czech First League20°22 km/h

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    Viktoria PlzeňViktoria PlzeňCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–1
    SlováckoSlováckoBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Viktoria Plzeň (71%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.45 (+16 %)

    Viktoria Plzeň – Slovácko · Czech First League

    1 · Viktoria Plzeň 71%X 19%10% Slovácko · 2

    Analysis: Viktoria Plzeň – Slovácko

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Viktoria Plzeň boasts a hefty 71% probability of securing victory against Slovácko, underlining their strong standing in this Czech First League clash. Despite a modest head-to-head record since 2023, where the teams split results over four encounters, the hosts' dominance is supported by their superior home win rate of 62% across 39 matches. Meanwhile, Slovácko stumbles into this fixture on a three-game losing streak, further tipping the scales in Plzeň's favor.

    Expected goals solidify Plzeň's upper hand, projecting 2.07 against Slovácko's 0.71. While the visitors favor a balanced and physical approach, it may struggle against Plzeň's counter-attacking prowess. Most likely scorelines, either a 2-0 or 1-0 win, align with this expectation, both reflecting a 13% chance. There's a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 53%, yet the probability of both teams scoring sits at a restrained 45%.

    For bettors seeking value, the real edge lies in the under 2.5 goals market. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds of 2.42, there’s a notable 15% value edge. This underlines a calculated risk, particularly appealing given the scoring projections and Slovácko's recent form woes.

    Viktoria PlzeňViktoria Plzeň
    Form LLDDW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #4xP/match #7Points #12
    Key players
    • Amar MemicRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.29
    • Christophe KabongoLWxG 0.57 · xT 0.03
    • Matej VydraFxG 0.20 · xT 0.07
    SlováckoSlovácko
    Form LDLLL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #9xP/match #14Points #14
    Key players
    • Pavel JuroskaLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.02
    • Šimon SlončíkCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
    • Gigli NdefeRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.03
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Viktoria Plzeň 71% · Draw 19% · Slovácko 10%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Viktoria PlzeňBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,64fair 6,00-39 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - SlovackoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 27,28fair 50,43-46 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Viktoria Plzeň – Slovácko

    Predicted score matrix

    Slovácko →
    Viktoria Plzeň →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.5%
    0–14.1%
    0–21.6%
    0–30.4%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–012.6%
    1–19.4%
    1–23.2%
    1–30.8%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–013.3%
    2–19.4%
    2–23.3%
    2–30.8%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–09.2%
    3–16.5%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–07.7%
    4+–15.5%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-013%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.1-19%
    5. 5.3-09%
    Expected goals
    2,07–0,71
    Both teams to score
    45%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.45EV+16%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.49

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Viktoria Plzeň to win71%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.78

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Viktoria Plzeň to win71%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Prince Kwabena Adu to score34%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score45%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Prince Kwabena Adu to score34%
    • Gigli Nsungani Ndefe to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.547% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.45BetssonEV+16%reference odds
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Viktoria PlzeňX2 · Slovácko
    Betsafe1.27
    EV+ 0%
    5.35    		8.40
    Betsson1.27
    EV+ 0%
    5.35    		8.40
    Nordicbet1.27
    EV+ 0%
    5.35    		8.40

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 09:42

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    73 %68 %

    1.30 → 1.27

    X+8 %
    20 %15 %

    4.95 → 5.35

    2+2 %
    14 %9 %

    8.20 → 8.40

    Over 2,5-2 %
    64 %59 %

    1.52 → 1.49

    Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Viktoria Plzeň 1Draw 1Slovácko 2
    Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • 1. FC Slovacko have lost 3 in a row.
    • FC Viktoria Plzen win 62% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Viktoria Plzeň
    Slovácko
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Viktoria Plzeň (10–11)
    Slovácko (4–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Viktoria Plzeň
    Sampson Kargeoh Dweh Jr.: 271 passningar, xT 0.28Jr.Patrik Hrošovský: 144 passningar, xT 0.48HrošovskýKarel Spacil: 144 passningar, xT 0.15SpacilDavid Krcik: 130 passningar, xT 0.34KrcikFlorian Wiegele: 121 passningar, xT 0.15WiegeleAmar Memic: 119 passningar, xT 0.89MemicLukas Cerv: 109 passningar, xT 0.07CervMerchas Doski: 105 passningar, xT 0.35DoskiFilip Prebsl: 100 passningar, xT 0.05PrebslAlexandr Sojka: 74 passningar, xT 0.07SojkaCheick Souare: 65 passningar, xT 0.64Souare
    Slovácko
    Andrej Stojcevski: 236 passningar, xT 0.42StojcevskiMichal Travnik: 215 passningar, xT 0.5TravnikŠimon Slončík: 201 passningar, xT 0.58SlončíkJocelin Behiratche: 196 passningar, xT 0.29BehiratcheTihomir Kostadinov: 138 passningar, xT 0.41KostadinovGigli Ndefe: 116 passningar, xT 0.11NdefeMarek Havlik: 103 passningar, xT 0.8HavlikPatrik Blahut: 86 passningar, xT 0.18BlahutMilan Heca: 68 passningar, xT 0.16HecaMartin Šviderský: 64 passningar, xT 0.06ŠviderskýPavel Halouska: 38 passningar, xT 0.04Halouska
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Viktoria Plzeň
    Sampson Kargeoh Dweh Jr.: 271 passningar, xT 0.28Jr.Patrik Hrošovský: 144 passningar, xT 0.48HrošovskýKarel Spacil: 144 passningar, xT 0.15SpacilDavid Krcik: 130 passningar, xT 0.34KrcikFlorian Wiegele: 121 passningar, xT 0.15WiegeleAmar Memic: 119 passningar, xT 0.89MemicLukas Cerv: 109 passningar, xT 0.07CervMerchas Doski: 105 passningar, xT 0.35DoskiFilip Prebsl: 100 passningar, xT 0.05PrebslAlexandr Sojka: 74 passningar, xT 0.07SojkaCheick Souare: 65 passningar, xT 0.64Souare
    Slovácko
    Andrej Stojcevski: 236 passningar, xT 0.42StojcevskiMichal Travnik: 215 passningar, xT 0.5TravnikŠimon Slončík: 201 passningar, xT 0.58SlončíkJocelin Behiratche: 196 passningar, xT 0.29BehiratcheTihomir Kostadinov: 138 passningar, xT 0.41KostadinovGigli Ndefe: 116 passningar, xT 0.11NdefeMarek Havlik: 103 passningar, xT 0.8HavlikPatrik Blahut: 86 passningar, xT 0.18BlahutMilan Heca: 68 passningar, xT 0.16HecaMartin Šviderský: 64 passningar, xT 0.06ŠviderskýPavel Halouska: 38 passningar, xT 0.04Halouska

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceViktoria PlzeňSlovácko
    Points51
    xPoints5.55.8
    xG per match1.60.98
    xGA per match1.31.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.110.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.47
    Playing styleViktoria PlzeňSlovácko
    Build-up efficiency0.330.35
    Field tilt0.60.48
    xT per match1.30.96
    xTA per match0.740.93
    Won balls, offensive half2126
    Pressing intensity0.210.24
    Pressing efficiency0.330.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.25
    Entries into the box per match149
    Entries into the box against1210
    Pass completion %0.790.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.74
    Passes per match404345
    Passes against per match254358
    Switches of play per match32.616.7
    Long balls per match3728
    Set piecesViktoria PlzeňSlovácko
    xG from free kicks0.10.09
    Corners per match4.33.9
    Corners against per match3.33.9
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.4
    OtherViktoria PlzeňSlovácko
    Throw-in control0.750.61
    The goalkeepersFlorian Wiegele (Viktoria Plzeň)Alexandr Urban (Slovácko)
    Saves144
    Save %58%44%
    xG prevented43%20%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Viktoria Plzeň
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Slovácko
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Viktoria Plzeň vs Slovácko according to our model?

    The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viktoria Plzeň 71%, draw 19%, Slovácko 10%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.