01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Viktoria Plzeň to win59%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Czech First League15°5,9 mm16 km/h
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Viktoria PlzeňBalanced & physicalvs
Sigma OlomoucPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Viktoria Plzeň (59%)
Viktoria Plzeň – Sigma Olomouc · Czech First League
1 · Viktoria Plzeň 59%X 22%18% Sigma Olomouc · 2
59%
22%
18%
Analysis: Viktoria Plzeň – Sigma Olomouc
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The 59% over 2.5 goals probability is attributed to "Bet365," but no such source appears in the facts—this is an unsupported claim. Corrected text:
Viktoria Plzeň's remarkable dominance in recent head-to-head clashes against Sigma Olomouc adds intrigue to this contest. With four wins in their last five meetings, Plzeň clearly holds the upper hand, though the sample is admittedly small. Yet, when we look at the current season's form, the numbers tell a more nuanced story. While Sigma leads in points, Plzeň edges them out in expected points and expected goals. This suggests a balancing act between actual results and underlying performance metrics.
The model gives Plzeň a 59% chance of victory at home, in line with their all-time home win rate of 60%. Notably, they remain unbeaten in their last six league outings, a testament to their consistency. However, Sigma isn't to be underestimated, having collected more points so far this season. Their possession-based style might pose a challenge to Plzeň's balanced and physical approach, especially in conditions likely to dampen goal-scoring opportunities. Expected rainfall could further level the playing field, affecting both teams' dynamics and potentially keeping the scoreline tight.
Interestingly, the expected goals suggest a close match, with Plzeň at 1.87 and Sigma at 1.18. Yet, the likelihood of both teams finding the net is pegged at 59%. This hints at a probable scenario where defensive lapses on either side could be punished. The rain, however, may act as a dampener, justifying the model's moderate 59% lean towards over 2.5 goals.
The most likely scorelines are 1-1 and 2-1, reflecting the delicate balance between the two sides. While Plzeň is the favorite, the odds indicate potential value in betting on Sigma to win at 18%. Despite being outsiders, their current form means they shouldn't be written off entirely.
For those seeking a betting angle, the 59% over 2.5 goals probability might be worth exploring. With conditions factored in, this represents a subtle yet intriguing opportunity in a closely poised matchup.
Viktoria PlzeňForm DWDWD
League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #4xP/match #7Points #9
Key players
- Prince Kwabena AduFxG 0.75 · xT 0.10
- Amar MemicRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.21
- Sampson Kargeoh Dweh Jr.CBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Sigma OlomoucForm WWWLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #14xP/match #11Points #4
Key players
- Dominik JanosekCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.06
- Ahmad GhaliRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
- Michal BeranCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Viktoria Plzeň – Sigma Olomouc
Predicted score matrix
Sigma Olomouc →
Viktoria Plzeň →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–15.3%
0–23.3%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–08.6%
1–110.8%
1–26.2%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.3%
2–19.8%
2–25.8%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–05.1%
3–16.1%
3–23.6%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.7%
4+–14.3%
4+–22.6%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,87–1,18
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.05
Over 2,559%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Viktoria Plzeň to win59%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Alexandr Sojka to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Alexandr Sojka to score29%
- Péter Baráth to be booked24%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Viktoria Plzeň | X | 2 · Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.58 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| Betsson | 1.58 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| Nordicbet | 1.58 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
Odds updated 9 Sept, 23:37
Odds movement
1-4 %
59 %54 %
1.65 → 1.58
X+3 %
27 %22 %
3.75 → 3.85
2+9 %
22 %17 %
4.50 → 4.90
Over 2,5+1 %
57 %52 %
1.68 → 1.70
Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 09/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesViktoria Plzeň 4Draw 0Sigma Olomouc 1
Goals: 8–5 (⌀ 2,6)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Viktoria Plzen dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- FC Viktoria Plzen are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
- FC Viktoria Plzen win 60% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Viktoria Plzeň
Sigma Olomouc
Viktoria Plzeň (14–12)
Sigma Olomouc (13–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Viktoria Plzeň
Sigma Olomouc
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Viktoria Plzeň
Sigma Olomouc
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Viktoria Plzeň | Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 13 |
| xPoints | 10.4 | 9.6 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.97 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Viktoria Plzeň | Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 0.71 | 0.87 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 390 | 427 |
| Passes against per match | 296 | 288 |
| Switches of play per match | 28 | 24.5 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Viktoria Plzeň | Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.14 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.58 |
| Other | Viktoria Plzeň | Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Florian Wiegele (Viktoria Plzeň) | Jan Koutny (Sigma Olomouc) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 18 |
| Save % | 66% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Viktoria Plzeň vs Sigma Olomouc according to our model?
The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viktoria Plzeň 59%, draw 22%, Sigma Olomouc 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.