Zlín vs Hradec Králové: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Czech First League12 September 202615°1,6 mm11 km/h

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ZlínPossession control

Hradec KrálovéPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Hradec Králové (50%)

1 · Zlín 22%X 28%50% Hradec Králové · 2

22%

28%

50%

Analysis: Zlín – Hradec Králové

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Seven consecutive losses tell the story of Zlín's recent struggles. This grim pattern highlights their vulnerabilities just as they prepare to face Hradec Králové, a side that's cruising with 11 points on the board. While both teams share a penchant for possession control, it's the visitors who translate this into more effective play. Their expected goals tally of 1.49 dwarfs Zlín's 1.03, pointing towards a clear edge in attacking capability.

The most telling figures lie in the expected goals against: Zlín concedes an alarming 1.8 xGA per match, nearly double that of Hradec Králové's sturdy 0.96. This defensive frailty is likely to be exploited by the visitors, who are unbeaten in their last two meetings with Zlín. Although the head-to-head sample is small and offers limited insight, it underscores the current momentum favoring Hradec Králové.

The model probabilities paint a decisive picture: Hradec Králové stands at a 50% chance of winning, a significant edge over Zlín’s meager 22%. The likelihood of a 1-1 draw sits at 13%, but the visitors' form suggests they can edge past that. A 0-1 or 1-2 scoreline seems more probable. With an over 2.5 goal likelihood at just 46%, this clash might not see a flurry of goals, reflecting the defensive discipline of the visitors.

For those eyeing betting opportunities, the away win at odds 2.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet holds an edge. While it's a slim 1% value, it aligns with Hradec Králové's statistical superiority and current form. Those seeking a data-backed punt could well find it here.

Zlín

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #16xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Daniel ŠmigaFxG 0.20 · xT 0.19
Marian PisojaRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
Naphthalene Frank AppiahRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.19

Hradec Králové

Form WLLWD

League ranking xG #10xGA #1xT #11xP/match #3Points #8

Key players

Mick Van BurenFxG 0.28 · xT 0.13
Tom SloncikLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.01
Vladimir DaridaCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Zlín – Hradec Králové

Predicted score matrix

Hradec Králové →

Zlín →

0–08.4%

0–111.7%

0–29.0%

0–34.5%

0–4+2.3%

1–07.9%

1–112.7%

1–29.2%

1–34.6%

1–4+2.4%

2–04.2%

2–16.3%

2–24.7%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.2%

3–01.5%

3–12.2%

3–21.6%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,03–1,49

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.72

Over 2,546%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hradec Králové to win50%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hradec Králové to win50%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Mick van Buren to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Mick van Buren to score33%
Jakub Černín to be booked21%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Zlín	X	2 · Hradec Králové
Betsafe	3.65	3.25	1.98
Betsson	3.65	3.25	1.98
Nordicbet	3.65	3.25	1.98

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Hradec Králové win since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 2.25 to 1.98 (−12%).

1+20 %

33 %23 %

3.05 → 3.65

X+5 %

34 %24 %

3.10 → 3.25

2-12 %

49 %39 %

2.25 → 1.98

Over 2,5-2 %

51 %41 %

2.05 → 2.00

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Zlín 0Draw 1Hradec Králové 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Zlin have lost 7 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Zlín

Hradec Králové

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Zlín (6–16)

Hradec Králové (6–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Zlín

Hradec Králové

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Zlín

Hradec Králové

The teams in numbers

Performance	Zlín	Hradec Králové
Points	0	11
xPoints	5.8	11
xG per match	0.85	1.2
xGA per match	1.8	0.96
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.27

Playing style	Zlín	Hradec Králové
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.35
Field tilt	0.38	0.52
xT per match	0.7	0.93
xTA per match	1	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	25	20
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.27
Entries into the box per match	9	12
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.69	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.72
Passes per match	245	360
Passes against per match	321	341
Switches of play per match	26.7	20.9
Long balls per match	34	31

Set pieces	Zlín	Hradec Králové
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.03
Corners per match	3.7	5.1
Corners against per match	5.4	5.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.56

Other	Zlín	Hradec Králové
Throw-in control	0.66	0.72

The goalkeepers	Stanislav Dostal (Zlín)	Adam Zadrazil (Hradec Králové)
Saves	15	26
Save %	52%	81%
xG prevented	29%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Zlín

Fixtures, form & tips

Hradec Králové

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Zlín vs Hradec Králové according to our model?

The model gives Hradec Králové a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zlín 22%, draw 28%, Hradec Králové 50%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.