Zlín vs Teplice: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Czech First League6 September 202616°18 km/h

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ZlínPossession control

1–3

TeplicePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Teplice (44%)

1 · Zlín 27%X 29%44% Teplice · 2

27%

29%

44%

Analysis: Zlín – Teplice

Marcus Johansson · 4 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

FAKTA vs TEXT comparison shows one error: the text uses "1.46 xG" for Teplice's season xG per match average, but the facts state Teplice's xG per match is 1.4 (1.46 is the expected goals for this specific match, a different metric). Corrected below:

Zlín’s six-game losing streak sets a stark tone as they face Teplice, who hold a significant edge in both points and expected goals this season. Despite a small head-to-head sample where Zlín holds a 2-1 advantage, current form and metrics heavily favor the visitors. Teplice have accumulated 10 points compared to Zlín's none, and their xG superiority of 1.4 per match against Zlín's meager 0.78 reflects a decisive difference in attacking threat.

Both teams adopt a possession control style, yet Teplice seem better equipped to convert this philosophy into tangible results. Zlín's xGA of 1.8 per match is problematic against a Teplice side averaging 1.4 xG per match — suggesting the visitors will likely find the back of the net. The model's most probable scorelines echo this, with 1-1 and 0-1 leading the predictions, though the lean remains toward a Teplice victory.

From a betting perspective, there’s clear value on Teplice winning at odds of 2.52 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet — offering a 10% edge according to the model's 44% win probability for Teplice. The over/under 2.5 goals market is balanced at 49%, but the crux lies in backing the visitors to capitalize on Zlín's ongoing struggles.

Zlín

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #15xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Daniel ŠmigaFxG 0.20 · xT 0.19
Marian PisojaRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
Naphthalene Frank AppiahRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.20

Teplice

Form WDLLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #10xT #5xP/match #8Points #7

Key players

Lukas MarecekCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
Matej RadostaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.14
Jan FortelnyFxG 0.13 · xT 0.04

Final score

1 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Zlín 27% · Draw 29% · Teplice 44%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FK TepliceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,57fair 9,18+4 %

Hit

Matchresultat - ZlínBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,94fair 14,24-30 %

Miss

Match prediction: Zlín – Teplice

Predicted score matrix

Teplice →

Zlín →

0–07.6%

0–110.2%

0–27.7%

0–33.7%

0–4+1.9%

1–08.1%

1–112.7%

1–29.0%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.2%

2–04.9%

2–17.2%

2–25.2%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.3%

3–01.9%

3–12.8%

3–22.0%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.0-28%

Expected goals

1,17–1,46

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.68

Over 2,549%

@2.08EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Teplice or draw (X2)70%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Teplice or draw (X2)70%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Marcel Čermák to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Marcel Čermák to score22%
Cletus Nombil to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Teplice44% probability@2.55BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
2 · Teplice44% probability@2.55BetssonEV+12%reference odds
2 · Teplice44% probability@2.55NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Zlín	X	2 · Teplice
Betsafe	2.65	3.10	EV+ 12% 2.55
Betsson	2.65	3.10	EV+ 12% 2.55
Nordicbet	2.65	3.10	EV+ 12% 2.55

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

36 %31 %

2.62 → 2.65

X-2 %

32 %27 %

3.15 → 3.10

20 %

39 %34 %

2.55 → 2.55

Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Zlín 2Draw 0Teplice 1

Goals: 8–7 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Zlin have lost 6 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Zlín

Teplice

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Zlín (5–13)

Teplice (12–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Zlín

Teplice

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Zlín

Teplice

The teams in numbers

Performance	Zlín	Teplice
Points	0	10
xPoints	4.9	8.3
xG per match	0.78	1.4
xGA per match	1.8	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.07

Playing style	Zlín	Teplice
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.35	0.57
xT per match	0.59	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	24	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.22
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.69	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.72
Passes per match	236	325
Passes against per match	334	342
Switches of play per match	24.4	23.3
Long balls per match	33	30

Set pieces	Zlín	Teplice
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	3.5	6.6
Corners against per match	5.3	3.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.78

Other	Zlín	Teplice
Throw-in control	0.63	0.69

The goalkeepers	Stanislav Dostal (Zlín)	Matous Trmal (Teplice)
Saves	11	20
Save %	50%	63%
xG prevented	26%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Zlín

Fixtures, form & tips

Teplice

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Zlín vs Teplice according to our model?

The model gives Teplice a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zlín 27%, draw 29%, Teplice 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.