Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Czech First League22 August 202617°0,3 mm13 km/h

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Jablonec

Baník Ostrava

The model's lean: 1 · Jablonec (53%)

1 · Jablonec 53%X 25%22% Baník Ostrava · 2

53%

25%

22%

Match prediction: Jablonec – Baník Ostrava

Predicted score matrix

Baník Ostrava →

Jablonec →

0–07.5%

0–17.0%

0–23.8%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.2%

1–112.2%

1–26.1%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.3%

2–19.5%

2–24.9%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.0%

3–15.1%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.9%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,61–1,03

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.90

Over 2,549%

@1.80

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Jablonec to win53%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Jablonec to win53%
Under 2.5 goals51%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals49%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Jablonec53% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+17%
1 · Jablonec53% probability@2.22BetssonEV+17%
1 · Jablonec53% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+17%

Bookmaker	1 · Jablonec	X	2 · Baník Ostrava
Betsafe	EV+ 17% 2.22	3.25	2.95
Betsson	EV+ 17% 2.22	3.25	2.95
Nordicbet	EV+ 17% 2.22	3.25	2.95

Odds updated 17 Aug, 12:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Baník Ostrava win since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 3.45 to 2.95 (−14%).

1+11 %

46 %41 %

2.00 → 2.22

X-3 %

30 %25 %

3.35 → 3.25

2-14 %

31 %26 %

3.45 → 2.95

Over 2,50 %

54 %49 %

1.80 → 1.80

Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 17/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava according to our model?

The model gives Jablonec a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jablonec 53%, draw 25%, Baník Ostrava 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.