Czech First League13°14 km/h

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    JablonecJablonecCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–2
    Slovan LiberecSlovan LiberecLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Jablonec (39%)

    Jablonec – Slovan Liberec · Czech First League

    1 · Jablonec 39%X 28%33% Slovan Liberec · 2

    Analysis: Jablonec – Slovan Liberec

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Despite Jablonec's historical edge in this fixture, the numbers suggest a tight contest against Slovan Liberec, with both sides capable of controlling the game in different ways. Jablonec's counter-attacking style and reliance on crosses may play into the visitors' hands, as Liberec prefers a low defensive block with quick, direct transitions. This contrast implies a match where control might trade hands frequently but without overwhelming either side. Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring affairs when facing each other, averaging 3.0 goals per game, but this could be an outlier given their current expected goals (xG) metrics.

    Jablonec's xG of 0.99 per match reflects their struggle to consistently create clear-cut chances, which could hamper them despite their slight favoritism by the model. In contrast, Slovan Liberec's superior xG of 1.8 per match suggests a more robust ability to generate scoring opportunities, bolstered by a more solid defensive record — their xGA stands at 0.91 compared to Jablonec's 1.1. The visitors' edge in both expected points and current standings (13 points to 10) further underscores their form advantage, despite the hosts' historical dominance.

    Considering the odds, there’s a subtle value on the home side with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at odds of 2.62, where the model assigns a 39% likelihood of a Jablonec win, offering a 2% edge. While this suggests that the hosts are worth a look, it's crucial to acknowledge it as a small value play rather than a sure bet. The model also hints at a low-scoring outcome; with a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and the most likely scorelines revolving around 1-1 or a narrow 1-0 either way, goals might be scarce.

    In this balance of caution and opportunity, Jablonec at home with a touch of value represents a calculated, if modest, chance to edge. Yet, the sharpest expectation here leans towards a tactical draw, likely finishing 1-1, with a strategic focus on under 2.5 goals as the safer play.

    JablonecJablonec
    Form WWWLD
    League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #11xP/match #12Points #6
    Key players
    • Martin CedidlaRBxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
    • Jan SuchanLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.07
    • Matej PolidarLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
    Slovan LiberecSlovan Liberec
    Form LWDWW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #6xP/match #1Points #3
    Key players
    • Raimonds KrollisFxG 0.45 · xT -0.08
    • Lukas MasekFxG 0.46 · xT -0.04
    • Milan LexaFxG 0.09 · xT 0.32
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Jablonec 39% · Draw 28% · Slovan Liberec 33%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - JablonecBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,48fair 14,05-25 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Slovan LiberecBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,90fair 13,30-33 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Jablonec – Slovan Liberec

    Predicted score matrix

    Slovan Liberec →
    Jablonec →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.4%
    0–110.6%
    0–26.7%
    0–32.7%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–010.3%
    1–113.4%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–06.3%
    2–17.7%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–02.5%
    3–13.1%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.0%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,19–1,22
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,557%
    @1.70
    Over 2,543%
    @2.05

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Jablonec or draw (1X)63%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.01

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Jablonec or draw (1X)63%
    • Under 2.5 goals57%
    • Lamin Jawo to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals43%
    • Lamin Jawo to score29%
    • Lukáš Masopust to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Jablonec39% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Jablonec39% probability@2.85BetssonEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Jablonec39% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · JablonecX2 · Slovan Liberec
    Betsafe
    EV+ 11%
    2.85    		3.052.42
    Betsson
    EV+ 11%
    2.85    		3.052.42
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 11%
    2.85    		3.052.42

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Slovan Liberec win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 2.65 to 2.42 (−9%).

    1+18 %
    41 %31 %

    2.42 → 2.85

    X-8 %
    34 %24 %

    3.30 → 3.05

    2-9 %
    40 %30 %

    2.65 → 2.42

    Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    7 matches
    Jablonec 3Draw 3Slovan Liberec 1
    Goals: 14–7 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FK Jablonec dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jablonec
    Slovan Liberec
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Jablonec (6–4)
    Slovan Liberec (8–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jablonec
    Dušan Pavlović: 237 passningar, xT 0.15PavlovićRichard Sedlacek: 218 passningar, xT 0.52SedlacekMartin Cedidla: 168 passningar, xT 0.37CedidlaNemanja Tekijaski: 142 passningar, xT 0.17TekijaskiFilip Novak: 138 passningar, xT 0.21NovakVakhtang Chanturishvili: 129 passningar, xT 0.62ChanturishviliKlemen Mihelak: 111 passningar, xT 0.13MihelakJan Suchan: 100 passningar, xT 0.17SuchanNelson Okeke: 94 passningar, xT -0.03OkekeJiří Sláma: 86 passningar, xT 0.44SlámaSebastian Nebyla: 65 passningar, xT 0.54Nebyla
    Slovan Liberec
    Lukáš Hůlka: 182 passningar, xT 0.34HůlkaAugustin Drakpe: 168 passningar, xT 0.1DrakpeJosef Kozeluh: 165 passningar, xT 0.66KozeluhAziz Kayondo: 126 passningar, xT 0.72KayondoTomas Koubek: 123 passningar, xT 0.2KoubekLukas Masopust: 121 passningar, xT 0.3MasopustFallou Faye: 77 passningar, xT 0.56FayeJan Mikula: 77 passningar, xT 0.21MikulaMilan Lexa: 61 passningar, xT 0.66LexaVasil Kušej: 54 passningar, xT 0.24KušejPetr Hodous: 46 passningar, xT 0.1Hodous
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jablonec
    Dušan Pavlović: 237 passningar, xT 0.15PavlovićRichard Sedlacek: 218 passningar, xT 0.52SedlacekMartin Cedidla: 168 passningar, xT 0.37CedidlaNemanja Tekijaski: 142 passningar, xT 0.17TekijaskiFilip Novak: 138 passningar, xT 0.21NovakVakhtang Chanturishvili: 129 passningar, xT 0.62ChanturishviliKlemen Mihelak: 111 passningar, xT 0.13MihelakJan Suchan: 100 passningar, xT 0.17SuchanNelson Okeke: 94 passningar, xT -0.03OkekeJiří Sláma: 86 passningar, xT 0.44SlámaSebastian Nebyla: 65 passningar, xT 0.54Nebyla
    Slovan Liberec
    Lukáš Hůlka: 182 passningar, xT 0.34HůlkaAugustin Drakpe: 168 passningar, xT 0.1DrakpeJosef Kozeluh: 165 passningar, xT 0.66KozeluhAziz Kayondo: 126 passningar, xT 0.72KayondoTomas Koubek: 123 passningar, xT 0.2KoubekLukas Masopust: 121 passningar, xT 0.3MasopustFallou Faye: 77 passningar, xT 0.56FayeJan Mikula: 77 passningar, xT 0.21MikulaMilan Lexa: 61 passningar, xT 0.66LexaVasil Kušej: 54 passningar, xT 0.24KušejPetr Hodous: 46 passningar, xT 0.1Hodous

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJablonecSlovan Liberec
    Points1013
    xPoints6.111.5
    xG per match0.991.8
    xGA per match1.10.91
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.230.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.180.14
    Playing styleJablonecSlovan Liberec
    Build-up efficiency0.330.32
    Field tilt0.470.5
    xT per match0.911.1
    xTA per match1.30.93
    Won balls, offensive half2025
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.310.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.26
    Entries into the box per match1019
    Entries into the box against139
    Pass completion %0.760.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.67
    Passes per match357268
    Passes against per match316321
    Switches of play per match30.323.3
    Long balls per match3334
    Set piecesJablonecSlovan Liberec
    xG from free kicks0.080.1
    Corners per match4.46.4
    Corners against per match3.83.5
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.53
    First touch, defensive corners %0.740.67
    OtherJablonecSlovan Liberec
    Throw-in control0.780.71
    The goalkeepersKlemen Mihelak (Jablonec)Tomas Koubek (Slovan Liberec)
    Saves1112
    Save %73%80%
    xG prevented36%58%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jablonec
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Slovan Liberec
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec according to our model?

    The model gives Jablonec a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jablonec 39%, draw 28%, Slovan Liberec 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.