Czech First League16°16 km/h

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    Mladá BoleslavMladá BoleslavPossession control
    4–0
    Baník OstravaBaník OstravaPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Mladá Boleslav (48%)

    Mladá Boleslav – Baník Ostrava · Czech First League

    1 · Mladá Boleslav 48%X 26%26% Baník Ostrava · 2

    Analysis: Mladá Boleslav – Baník Ostrava

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Mladá Boleslav's unbeaten streak is their standout feature as they prepare to host Baník Ostrava. Five matches without a loss reflect not only resilience but also a strategic edge over the visitors. This consistency aligns with the expected goals data, showing Boleslav generating more attacking output with an xG of 1.3 per match compared to Ostrava's 0.96. The possession-control approach of both teams suggests a battle for midfield dominance, but Boleslav's current form and home advantage could tilt the scales.

    While the head-to-head record since 2023 does not favor Boleslav, with no wins from five encounters against Ostrava, this small sample size is less significant than the current form and metrics. The model assigns Boleslav a 48% win probability, highlighting them as favorites. Moreover, the expected goals suggest that Boleslav is likely to find the net more often, a crucial factor given the visitors' slightly higher expected goals against (xGA) of 1.6 versus Boleslav's 1.5.

    The match might not be the goal fest the over 2.5 goals probability of 54% hints at, but a 2-1 or 1-0 result for the hosts is plausible. With both teams capable of scoring, the 56% chance for both teams to find the back of the net seems reasonable. Still, the edge remains with the hosts.

    For bettors seeking value, the odds align nicely with the model's assessment. Boleslav offers a tempting opportunity at odds of 2.2 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, providing a 6% edge. This is a calculated play on Boleslav's robust form and home field advantage — a sharp angle for those trusting the model's lean.

    Mladá BoleslavMladá Boleslav
    Form WDWDW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #11xT #14xP/match #7Points #4
    Key players
    • Solomon JohnRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.12
    • David KozelRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
    • Martin SubertLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.18
    Baník OstravaBaník Ostrava
    Form WLLWW
    League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #16xP/match #13Points #9
    Key players
    • Václav JurečkaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.04
    • Jiri BoulaFxG 0.00 · xT 0.00
    • Michal KohútRWxG 0.45 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    4 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Mladá Boleslav 48% · Draw 26% · Baník Ostrava 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Mladá BoleslavBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,21fair 7,06-12 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC Baník OstravaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,28fair 14,66-44 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Mladá Boleslav – Baník Ostrava

    Predicted score matrix

    Baník Ostrava →
    Mladá Boleslav →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–16.5%
    0–24.0%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–09.6%
    1–111.8%
    1–26.6%
    1–32.5%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.3%
    2–19.5%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–04.6%
    3–15.3%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.8%
    4+–13.2%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,67–1,15
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.08
    Over 2,554%
    @1.68

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Mladá Boleslav to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.54

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Mladá Boleslav to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Martin Subert to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Martin Subert to score28%
    • Raymond Roan Nogha Nogha to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Mladá Boleslav48% probability@2.20BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • 1 · Mladá Boleslav48% probability@2.20BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    • 1 · Mladá Boleslav48% probability@2.20NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Mladá BoleslavX2 · Baník Ostrava
    Betsafe
    EV+ 6%
    2.20    		3.352.95
    Betsson
    EV+ 6%
    2.20    		3.352.95
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 6%
    2.20    		3.352.95

    Odds updated 1 Sept, 10:36

    Odds movement

    10 %
    43 %38 %

    2.20 → 2.20

    X0 %
    30 %25 %

    3.35 → 3.35

    20 %
    34 %29 %

    2.95 → 2.95

    Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Mladá Boleslav 0Draw 4Baník Ostrava 1
    Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 1)

    Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FK Mlada Boleslav are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mladá Boleslav
    Baník Ostrava
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mladá Boleslav (11–6)
    Baník Ostrava (4–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mladá Boleslav
    Martin Kralik: 269 passningar, xT 0.55KralikOndřej Karafiát: 253 passningar, xT 0.61KarafiátMatej Hybs: 240 passningar, xT 0.59HybsJan Zika: 213 passningar, xT 0.12ZikaDenis Donat: 133 passningar, xT 0.18DonatDavid Kozel: 127 passningar, xT 0.24KozelDaniel Langhamer: 113 passningar, xT -0.2LanghamerJiri Floder: 111 passningar, xT 0.05FloderSolomon John: 70 passningar, xT 0.32JohnMartin Subert: 59 passningar, xT 0.53SubertRoman Macek: 58 passningar, xT -0.01Macek
    Baník Ostrava
    Martin Jedlicka: 121 passningar, xT 0.2JedlickaAbdullahi Ibrahim Bewene: 118 passningar, xT 0.24BeweneYevhenii Skyba: 117 passningar, xT 0.32SkybaRaymond Roan Nogha Nogha: 111 passningar, xT 0.27NoghaJiří Míček: 104 passningar, xT 0.24MíčekMatej Chalus: 102 passningar, xT 0.14ChalusVlasiy Sinyavskiy: 82 passningar, xT 0.06SinyavskiyAboubacar Traoré: 80 passningar, xT 0TraoréArtúr Musák: 53 passningar, xT 0.13MusákDavid Planka: 53 passningar, xT 0.09PlankaDantaye Gilbert: 40 passningar, xT -0.01Gilbert
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mladá Boleslav
    Martin Kralik: 269 passningar, xT 0.55KralikOndřej Karafiát: 253 passningar, xT 0.61KarafiátMatej Hybs: 240 passningar, xT 0.59HybsJan Zika: 213 passningar, xT 0.12ZikaDenis Donat: 133 passningar, xT 0.18DonatDavid Kozel: 127 passningar, xT 0.24KozelDaniel Langhamer: 113 passningar, xT -0.2LanghamerJiri Floder: 111 passningar, xT 0.05FloderSolomon John: 70 passningar, xT 0.32JohnMartin Subert: 59 passningar, xT 0.53SubertRoman Macek: 58 passningar, xT -0.01Macek
    Baník Ostrava
    Martin Jedlicka: 121 passningar, xT 0.2JedlickaAbdullahi Ibrahim Bewene: 118 passningar, xT 0.24BeweneYevhenii Skyba: 117 passningar, xT 0.32SkybaRaymond Roan Nogha Nogha: 111 passningar, xT 0.27NoghaJiří Míček: 104 passningar, xT 0.24MíčekMatej Chalus: 102 passningar, xT 0.14ChalusVlasiy Sinyavskiy: 82 passningar, xT 0.06SinyavskiyAboubacar Traoré: 80 passningar, xT 0TraoréArtúr Musák: 53 passningar, xT 0.13MusákDavid Planka: 53 passningar, xT 0.09PlankaDantaye Gilbert: 40 passningar, xT -0.01Gilbert

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMladá BoleslavBaník Ostrava
    Points119
    xPoints7.36.1
    xG per match1.30.96
    xGA per match1.51.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.240.14
    Playing styleMladá BoleslavBaník Ostrava
    Build-up efficiency0.330.33
    Field tilt0.470.54
    xT per match0.780.47
    xTA per match1.31.1
    Won balls, offensive half1823
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.240.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.120.23
    Entries into the box per match98
    Entries into the box against1812
    Pass completion %0.790.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.7
    Passes per match365237
    Passes against per match378283
    Switches of play per match11.114.5
    Long balls per match2223
    Set piecesMladá BoleslavBaník Ostrava
    xG from free kicks00.07
    Corners per match5.74.5
    Corners against per match5.54.8
    xG per corner0.010.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.570.61
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.6
    OtherMladá BoleslavBaník Ostrava
    Throw-in control0.680.66
    The goalkeepersJiri Floder (Mladá Boleslav)Martin Jedlicka (Baník Ostrava)
    Saves159
    Save %71%60%
    xG prevented42%28%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Mladá Boleslav
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Baník Ostrava
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mladá Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava according to our model?

    The model gives Mladá Boleslav a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mladá Boleslav 48%, draw 26%, Baník Ostrava 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.